Wednesday’s between US President and the Russian President indicated a radical shift in Washington’s stance. Prior to this, there had been no direct communication between the US and Moscow since Russia launched its full-scale . Now, Trump has said that he hopes to meet Putin in Saudi Arabia for “” to end the war. However, he did not say anything to suggest that Ukraine would be included in the meeting.
Furthermore, Trump’s secretary of defense, , has declared that Ukraine must be prepared to cede territory currently under Russian occupation in exchange for peace. He also made clear that the US “does not believe that membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.”
Government and opposition statements
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that Kyiv “will not accept” any agreements made without Ukraine’s involvement. It was crucial, he said, that “everything does not go according to Putin’s plan.” In this case, Putin apparently wishes to conduct bilateral negotiations exclusively with the US.
Zelenskyy is urging Europe to come to the table and participate in negotiations to end Russia’s war of aggression. His conversation with Trump took place only after the US president had first called Putin. However, the Ukrainian leader said he did not believe that Trump was favoring Russia in doing so. He did, however, concede that it was “not pleasant.”
Meanwhile, Iryna Herashchenko, a member of Ukraine’s parliament for the opposition party European Solidarity led by former Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko, criticized Zelenskyy on social media. “At such a difficult time for Ukraine, I wish the president would follow the example of our European partners, who issued a joint statement in future negotiations,” she wrote. Herashchenko also expressed concerns that the recent US-Russia bilateral talk was “a violation of the principle ‘Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.’”
‘Too early for dire conclusions’
However, while some politicians and media outlets see Trump’s phone call with Putin as a “betrayal” of Ukraine, experts speaking with DW did not agree. “I do not share the opinion that the US will negotiate with Russia without Ukraine,” said Volodymyr Fesenko, CEO of Penta, a center for political studies in Kyiv. “If that were the case, Trump would not have spoken to Zelenskyy immediately after Putin. The fact that he informed Zelenskyy about the next steps means that Ukraine is still involved.”
Nonetheless, Fesenko does fear that Trump may negotiate first and foremost with Russia. “Putin will try to pressure Trump on key issues at the meeting in Saudi Arabia, and force the US to put pressure on Zelenskyy. At present, though, the US still maintains the position that Ukraine has to be part of the negotiations. So it’s too early to draw dire conclusions,” he said.
The former Ukrainian foreign minister Pavlo Klimkin expects that Putin will try to limit Ukraine’s sovereignty in negotiations with Trump. He also believes Trump used the phone call with Putin to elevate unofficial contacts between his administration and the Kremlin to an official level. “That’s why the press releases were coordinated,” he told DW.
Has Trump already played all his cards?
“It’s as if Trump has been by Putin,” commented Oleksiy Melnyk from the Razumkov Center, a public policy think tank in Kyiv. He said he was astonished by the US president’s phone call with Putin, and the ease with which core issues such as Ukraine’s prospective NATO membership and territorial integrity were passed over.
“Before even entering into negotiations, he played all the cards he should have saved so he could play them gradually, one by one. It makes you wonder which concessions he’ll still be willing to make,” so the expert
“If he’s willing to abandon Ukraine’s right to territorial integrity and its right to independent foreign policy, what demands is he still able to make of Putin?” Melnyk argued. He added that, publicly at least, Putin has not shown any willingness to compromise so far.
Klimkin, on the other hand, countered that Trump had not “played all his cards,” and was instead creating a framework for the start of official negotiations. “Who will participate in them? Will the carrot or the stick be used? No one can answer that today, because it depends on many factors that are known only to the ones negotiating. I won’t speculate over whether Trump has abandoned any positions before the start of negotiations,” he said.
He added that Trump might be aiming to achieve a quick ceasefire first, so he can then move on to negotiating a permanent solution at a later stage.
‘Europe must present a united front’
The experts DW spoke with stressed that Europe must present a united front in this regard. “Some European countries are making it clear that the Trump administration’s position is not really acceptable,” said Melnyk. “If the majority of our partners agree on a common position, then we can try to persuade Trump, and Putin probably won’t get what he’s counting on.”
Klimkin also advocated for a united European stance. “Not only must we sit at the negotiating table, we must also take on a proactive role, especially with regard to the Trump administration, and tell them what is possible and what is not,” he said.
“A proactive role must be backed by concrete measures and resources,” he added, arguing that Ukraine should focus on preventing any restrictions to its sovereignty or its foreign policy choice to align with the West.
Klimkin argued that Putin will call for Russia’s annexation of occupied Ukrainian territories to be recognized, if not by law, then at least on the ground. Looking ahead, the former foreign minister believes that, “Putin will demand the limitation of Ukraine’s military potential, that no Western weapons or troops be stationed in Ukraine. He will aim to restrict Ukraine’s path to joining the EU and NATO, and seek the amendment of the Ukraine’s constitution to make Russian an official language, and try to impose federalization.”
This article was translated from German.
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