It has been a year since Shirley Tobar’s husband, a security guard at a mall in Guayaquil, Ecuador, was killed amid an outbreak of violence in the city last January. Tobar, who is a 43-year-old stay-at-home parent, still hasn’t received a response from prosecutors regarding the culprit behind the attack that took her husband away.
In the country’s general election on Sunday, Feb. 9, Tobar said that she will only vote because it is compulsory; she remains undecided about who to vote for. Many Ecuadorians face the same decision as they cope with personal tragedies as a result of the country’s worsening security and economic situation.
Once considered one of the safest countries in Latin America, Ecuador is now consumed by organized crime, political instability, and an energy crisis. What began as extortion by gangs has escalated into attacks on police officers, explosions within residential neighborhoods, and previously uncommon forms of violence, such as kidnappings. The country’s homicide rate, which stood at 6.7 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2019, skyrocketed to an estimated 44.5 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 2023.
Meanwhile, political standoffs, corruption among officials reportedly linked to drug trafficking, and an energy crisis—including power outages that last up to 14 hours—have deepened the sense of distrust in authorities and heightened fear among Ecuadorians. As voters return to the polls just a year and a half after a snap election, it remains to be seen whether they will break away from past policies in favor of fresh solutions.
There are 16 presidential candidates on the ballot on Sunday, including incumbent President Daniel Noboa, who was elected in August 2023 after then-President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the country’s National Assembly amid an impeachment showdown with legislators.
The 2023 snap elections laid the perfect ground for a newcomer, political analyst and strategist Vanessa Guerrero said in an interview with Foreign Policy. After Lasso fled the country, the assassination of leading opposition candidate Fernando Villavicencio, who ran on a staunch anti-corruption campaign, deepened Ecuador’s political crisis and allowed a dark horse—such as Noboa—to gain traction.
Noboa, who became Ecuador’s youngest president when he assumed office at age 35, previously kept a low profile despite the fact that he comes from one of the country’s richest families. In 2023, his pitch to attract foreign investment and address rising violence, along with his composure in the presidential debate, secured him a victory.
Today, Ecuador’s deteriorating security situation is again one of the most pressing issues influencing voter sentiment. In the past five years, criminal groups that grew within the prison system have expanded across Ecuador, clashing over territory for drug trafficking, dealing, and engaging in predatory crimes such as extortion. They have hit Ecuador’s coastal provinces—such as Guayas, home to Guayaquil—the hardest. This has adversely affected people’s livelihoods and resulted in the displacement of an estimated 80,000 Ecuadorians last year, many of whom opted for the perilous northward trek to the United States.
Months after taking office, Noboa declared an internal armed conflict against several criminal groups following a spate of violent attacks that took place across the country in January 2024. The move designated the gangs as terrorist groups and allowed Noboa to deploy the military on the streets to combat them.
Throughout the current presidential campaign, Noboa and his administration have said that crime rates decreased in 2024: There were 6,987 homicides in that year, compared to 8,248 in 2023, according to Interior Ministry statistics. However, police estimate that Ecuador’s homicide rate remains high, at 38.76 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants. The public mood remains pessimistic, as local media continue to report on extrajudicial killings and violent extortion.
Though many analysts have pointed to nearby El Salvador’s hard-line approach under President Nayib Bukele as a model for tackling crime, Noboa has distanced himself from directly comparing the two countries’ policies. Nonetheless, Noboa’s administration has adopted similarly tough measures, including increased militarization and a focus on aggressive security strategies.
Some members of the public support Noboa’s tough stance, but others have questioned his methods—pointing to how many forms of violence have remained high a year after troops were first deployed on the streets. Many victims’ family members, such as Tobar, remain frustrated over what they see as a lack of justice as investigations into the killings of their loved ones drag on.
Most of the presidential candidates have made security a central focus of their campaigns, proposing military interventions and tougher policies to combat criminal organizations. A few others, including leading opposition candidate Luisa González, have called for investment in social programs aimed at reducing crime in poor areas and preventing recruitment into gangs due to economic need.
At the beginning of her presidential campaign, González criticized Noboa’s approach, saying that “he promised security, and we are the most violent country in Latin America.” Her plan includes restoring the Justice and Human Rights Ministry, which was dismantled under President Lenin Moreno in 2018; restructuring the Interior Ministry and Government Ministry; and implementing a new model of citizen security focused on violence prevention and upholding justice, equity, and human rights.
On top of its security issues, Ecuador is experiencing an energy crisis. Last year, an unprecedented drought disrupted the country’s power supply, which relies heavily on hydroelectric plants, and resulted in rolling blackouts that became frequent, hourslong power outages. According to the Guayaquil Chamber of Commerce, each hour without electricity can cost the country around $12 million. González has used this as ammunition towards Noboa, pointing out his poor management of the crisis.
Noboa, meanwhile, has made announcements on plans to modernize and strengthen power generation and distribution networks; he has blamed past administrations for a lack of maintenance and investment in the energy grid.
González, a former General Assembly member, represents the Citizen Revolution Movement, a democratic socialist party set up by former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa. In her rallies, she has mined the nostalgia of the Correa-led economic boom that lasted from 2007 to 2015, often advocating for a time when homicide rates were low and the employment rate was high.
Despite his legacy being marred by bribery charges, Correa is remembered as the charismatic president who invested heavily in Ecuador’s social programs and led the country through an economically strong period.
“I wish Rafael Correa would come back,” Tobar said this week. “Things were better then.”
Though Correa is banned from running for president and remains in exile, his political party and movement—known as Correismo—still wield significant influence in Ecuador, rallying support among a substantial portion of the population disillusioned with the current administration.
“Honestly, Correismo could put anyone on the ballot—that support is enough to get their candidate to the runoff,” said Andrés Castillo, a political consultant who is running in the General Assembly elections with Noboa’s party, the National Democratic Action party.
Noboa’s rise coincided with voters’ demands for a fresh face, quickly establishing him among young newcomers in the assembly—something that Castillo noted has worked in his favor.
But for Guerrero, the political analyst, this trend highlights a lack of structural change. “Voters focus on personalities, pro- or anti-Correa, rather than the models they represent, which reflects the political crisis in our country,” he said.
Even with 16 candidates, election discourse mainly centers around Correismo, with little focus on Noboa’s policies.
According to a recent Ipsos poll conducted in January, 45 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Noboa, while 31 percent said they would opt for Luisa González. Meanwhile, undecided voters made up about 16 percent of the poll. Other candidates, such as Andrea Gonzalez, an environmental activist who ran for vice president alongside Fernando Villavicencio, and Leonidas Iza, an indigenous leader who led the 2019 Ecuadorian protests, are each polling at around 5 percent and 2 percent respectively.
Ecuador’s geographic location makes it a key spot for global drug trafficking, drawing concerns from Washington. While Noboa, a dual Ecuadorian and U.S. citizen, has expressed a desire to seek security assistance from the United States for his war on drugs, candidates such as Luisa González have opposed the proposal.
Meanwhile, corruption scandals involving drug trafficking gangs in the judiciary system, broken promises on environmental regulation, and ineffective governance have led to growing voter apathy. Many Ecuadorians feel that elections have become a cycle of unfulfilled expectations, where new leaders fail to bring meaningful change.
Ecuador’s political arena, once characterized by a fragmented opposition, has found in Noboa a new contender who has risen in very little time as an alternative to Correa. Noboa has formed a loyal fanbase drawing on the same attributes that brought Correa to power in 2006: his youth and an iron fist.
Whether the country embraces continuity, a return to past leadership, or a new political force, the challenge for any candidate is not just to win votes, but also to restore confidence in a system that many people feel has repeatedly failed them from across the political spectrum.
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