WASHINGTON — If foreign leaders have learned anything about Donald Trump’s presidency, it may be that they’re better off as America’s foe than its friend.
So far, Trump has insulted Canada, played hardball with Denmark over the future of Greenland, cowed Colombia into repatriating undocumented immigrants on his terms, and threatened to wrest from Panama the eponymous canal that is a source of great national pride.
All are U.S. allies or partners to varying degrees. The State Department’s own website hails Panama as a democratic “partner” that works with the U.S. to “advance common interests.”
The U.S. embassy in Colombia website included reports touting a counternarcotics strategy that the two nations had devised — or at least it did under Joe Biden’s presidency. The web pages are no longer available on the site.
Canada fought alongside the U.S. in Afghanistan and fed and housed stranded airline passengers who couldn’t land after the Sept. 11 attacks. After slapping Canada with a 25% tariff, Trump wrote Sunday that American’s northern neighbor is propped up by U.S. subsidies to an extent that it can’t stand on its own. It should become the 51st state, he said on his social media platform.
Separately, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on another U.S. ally and neighbor, Mexico, while ordering a 10% tariff on imports from America’s fiercest global rival, China.
“He is coming down much harder on smaller states that the U.S. has very good relationships with,” said Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the U.S. and the Americas program at Chatham House, a research group based in London. “Colombia is a very strong partner of the U.S. in Latin America. Canada and Mexico are also close partners. They’re not adversaries. He is swinging the bat when you don’t even need to do that. America already has the upper hand.”
Taking a tough stance with smaller, largely pro-American nations may seem a low-risk proposition for Trump. None wants to antagonize a superpower. Nor do any have nuclear missiles aimed at U.S. cities.
But there are risks to Trump’s brand of diplomacy, national security analysts and former officials say. Nations may rethink their ties to the U.S. and embrace an eager suitor with billions to spend: China.
A spokesperson for the National Security Council did not immediately return a request for comment.
“Colombia is one of a couple of dozen countries with important strategic relations with the U.S. that are increasingly hedging in their relations with China and Russia,” said a former Biden administration national security official, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “This will demonstrate to them that the U.S. is the kind of partner that pulls this s—. You will see as a consequence Colombia saying yes and kissing Trump’s ass in its public messaging, and then opening the door to strategic competitors of the U.S. because they don’t consider the U.S. to be reliable.”
As Trump’s defenders see it, Americans want a steely commander-in-chief who won’t let the country get rolled.
He promised nothing less than a “golden age” for Americans, and if he can expand the country’s influence around the world, boost wealth and gain more cooperation in hardening the borders, he could leave office with a consequential legacy.
“At some point you need to demonstrate to your adversaries and to your allies who take you for granted and take advantage of you that those days over — that the American superpower is back and the sleeping giant has woken up,” said Richard Goldberg, who served in the White House national security council during Trump’s first term.
Vice President JD Vance posted a message on X Sunday defending Trump’s actions.
“Spare me the sob story about how Canada is our ‘best friend,’” Vance wrote. “I love Canada and have many Canadian friends. But is the government meeting their NATO target for military spending? Are they stopping the flow of drugs into our country? I’m sick of being taken advantage of.”
A downside of that argument is that it may incur global resentment.
NBC News recently observed Panamanians displaying national flags in defiance of the threat to seize the canal.
In the final year of Biden’s term in office, the Pew Research Center reported that of 34 countries surveyed, a majority held a favorable view of the U.S. By contrast, “throughout Donald Trump’s presidency, publics around the world held the United States in low regard, with most opposed to his foreign policies,” Pew wrote in 2021.
“Look, there’s a problem with that [Trump’s] approach, which is you’ve got significant numbers of countries that have deepened and widened their relations with China over the past decade and a half,” said Arturo Sarukhan, former Mexican ambassador to the U.S. “So, this type of Frank Sinatra doctrine — my way or the highway — is going to throw a lot of these countries deeper into the embrace of China.”
Early signs suggest that China is looking to capitalize on any diplomatic rifts.
A U.S. source says that Panama’s government had refused requests from Chinese officials to meet with them. But after Trump threatened to re-take the canal, Panama changed course and agreed to meet with the Chinese, the person said.
On Jan. 26, a couple of hours after Trump threatened Colombia with tariffs, a travel ban and other sanctions unless they accepted compatriots who’d been deported from the U.S., China’s ambassador to Colombia posted a message of his own.
Zhu Jingyang wrote in Spanish that China and Colombia were enjoying “the best moment” in more than four decades of diplomatic relations.
“You have the Chinese ambassador trying to take advantage in the short term,” Ryan Berg, director of the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in an interview.
In taking a hardline stance, Trump may have been trying to signal other nations in addition to Colombia that he won’t brook any dissent: Leaders must take back the countrymen living in the U.S. illegally.
It’s not clear, though, that the dustup with Colombia was necessary. Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro, had objected to the Trump administration sending people back on military planes, saying they shouldn’t be treated like criminals.
Petro ultimately relented, averting what could have been a ruinous trade war with the U.S.
But under the Biden administration, the U.S. was already returning Colombians to their home country, the former Biden national security official said.
“Our administration got the Colombians to take between 100 and 200 repatriation flights of Colombians back to Colombia,” the person said. “That’s not a new thing. We did that over and over again. What’s different is Trump wanted to do this with military flights. Colombia initially said no to that. Now they’ll take the flights. In terms of limiting migration, it doesn’t matter if the flights are military or civilian.”
Sen. Chris Murphy, D., Conn., a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, said the spat with Colombia was “a day of fake drama.”
“The media acted as if Colombia had capitulated. It didn’t,” Murphy added. “There were three flights a week before the dustup and there are three flights a week now,” he said. “He [Trump] created good headlines for himself without changing anything.”
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