How Will Trump’s South Asia Policy Take Shape?

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: A few of U.S. President Donald Trump’s initial moves could provide an early indication of his approach to South Asia; the region is well represented at the World Economic Forum summit in Davos, Switzerland; and Sri Lanka signs a landmark investment deal with China.

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4 Things to Watch From the Trump White House

U.S. President Donald Trump has said little about South Asia since taking office on Jan. 20, and his foreign-policy priorities are likely to focus elsewhere as he begins his second term. However, some of his initial moves—including four outlined below—will provide an early indication of how he might approach relations with countries in the region.

Tariffs. India’s protectionist policies and a trade imbalance with the United States in India’s favor have long made it a prime potential target for tariff hikes under Trump. Last week, industrialist Shalabh Kumar, a Republican donor, suggested that Trump could impose 10 percent tariff increases on India during his first days in office.

Such a move would inject tensions into U.S.-India commercial relations, especially if Trump is uninterested in maintaining the strategic trade dialogue launched with New Delhi in 2023. At the same time, tariffs or the threat of them could spur the two sides to begin talks on an economic partnership deal.

India isn’t the only country in the region affected by tariffs. The United States is a top export destination for all of South Asia, including Bangladesh and Pakistan. Given the fragility of those two economies, U.S. trade penalties could deliver economic and diplomatic blows.

Immigration. South Asian countries have large diasporas in the United States; that of India is the country’s 10th-largest. How Trump addresses the H-1B visa issue, which has led to a divide between some of those wielding influence in the administration (like tech billionaire Elon Musk) and many Trump supporters, will have consequences for a large number of South Asian tech workers in the United States—most of them Indians.

A crackdown on H-1B visas would also affect the U.S.-India tech relationship, which was one of the fastest-growing spaces for bilateral collaboration during the Biden era. Additionally, Indians are the third-largest undocumented immigrant group in the United States, who will face the threat of deportation under Trump.

Counterterrorism. Trump likes to say that he defeated the Islamic State, and he might be keen to curb the group’s recent resurgence—including the increasingly global threat posed by the Afghanistan-based affiliate known as the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K).

U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who has said that U.S. forces should not have withdrawn from Afghanistan, has expressed concern about IS-K and other terrorist groups in the country, warning they could target the United States. This suggests Afghanistan will be a key focus of the Trump administration’s counterterrorism strategy—one it will need to pursue without troops on the ground.

A key question will be how and if the Trump administration engages with the Taliban on the issue. Biden administration officials grudgingly acknowledged that Taliban crackdowns on IS-K were helpful to U.S. interests. But Waltz is a bitter critic of the Taliban; he might convince Trump to consider more so-called over-the-horizon U.S. military operations, such as the one that took out al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul in 2022.

Pakistan’s politics. Trump, who harshly criticized and cut most security aid to Pakistan during his first term, will likely have little interest in engaging with Islamabad. He is also unlikely to be receptive to pitches from Pakistani officials to renew security partnership to curb the shared threat of IS-K.

Meanwhile, many supporters of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, including those in the U.S. diaspora, hope that Trump will pressure Islamabad to release Khan from jail. These supporters recall Trump’s past praise of Khan and have been energized by some pre-inauguration posts by Richard Grenell, who Trump has nominated as his envoy for special missions, calling for Khan’s release.

Unless Trump believes that there is something in it for him, however, it’s hard to imagine him taking up Khan’s case with Pakistan (even if he makes supportive comments on social media). If he does, U.S.-Pakistan ties could face more strain.

What We’re Following

South Asia at Davos. This week, I’m writing the newsletter from the World Economic Forum’s annual summit in Davos, Switzerland. South Asia has a notable presence at the summit—but no country more so than India, which has representatives from the central government, multiple Indian states, and the country’s top technology companies.

Indian industry leaders, including Mukesh Ambani (Reliance Industries), Natarajan Chandrasekaran (Tata Group), and Kumar Mangalam Birla (Aditya Birla Group), are all at Davos, too.

Interim Bangladeshi leader Muhammad Yunus is also on hand and is expected to hold bilateral talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Meanwhile, Pakistani Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb reportedly agreed to a $1 billion loan with two Middle Eastern banks while at Davos.

Sri Lanka signs landmark deal with China. Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake was in China last week on a four-day visit that led to a major deal with Sinopec, a Chinese oil giant. Sri Lanka will reportedly receive $3.7 billion in investment from Sinopec, its largest foreign direct investment deal with China.

Last week, China renewed its $1.4 billion currency swap agreement with Sri Lanka for the next three years. The two countries also agreed to expand maritime cooperation, cultural exchanges, and people-to-people ties, according to a detailed joint statement.

Dissanayake’s trip and the resulting deals might make some Indian officials nervous. But the Sri Lankan leader is just taking care to balance relations with India and China; he visited New Delhi last December.

Khan sentenced to 14 years. Khan, Pakistan’s imprisoned former prime minister, and his wife, Bushra Bibi, were found guilty of illegally obtaining real estate in a corrupt deal last week and sentenced to 14 years and 7 years in jail, respectively. The verdict was announced by a special anti-graft court inside the prison in Rawalpindi, where Khan has been held since August 2023.

Khan’s supporters have lambasted the conviction—a symbolic blow—as another politically motivated attempt to weaken the leader. Khan has been embroiled in a bitter confrontation with Pakistan’s military leadership since he was ousted from power in a no-confidence vote in 2022.

The sentencing comes amid a round of talks between Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party and the government. Omar Ayub Khan, the leader of the opposition, said that the PTI will challenge the verdict in higher courts.

FP’s Most Read This Week

Regional Voices

An editorial in the Kathmandu Post decries Nepal’s mounting air pollution crisis and urges the government to consider a policy overhaul: “It is dangerous that Nepal, while claiming to promote sustainable energy, imports LPG, fuel and petrol from India. Such policy ambiguities will only confuse vehicle owners and the general public and will be ineffective in combating air pollution.”

In the Daily Star, economist Fahmida Khatun argues that Bangladesh’s interim government should strike a balance between executing government reform and organizing free and fair elections. “Reform and elections are not mutually exclusive—both can be pursued in parallel,” she writes. “Reform is a prolonged and iterative process.”

An editorial in the Hindu celebrates India’s recent win at the Kho Kho World Cup championship and argues that the government should look to boost games with a “rural heart,” despite the country being a superpower in cricket and chess. India’s “Pro Kabbadi League has shown that there is scope for Indian sport on television beyond cricket,” it argues.

Anusha Rathi contributed research for this article.

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