Strong, damaging Santa Ana winds are expected to bring extreme wildfire danger to Southern California Monday into Tuesday as the landscape remains dangerously starved of rain, and as firefighters continue to work to fully contain wildfires that left at least 27 people dead and destroyed thousands of homes this month.
While an offshore wind pattern is expected across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties Monday through Friday, the winds are predicted to pose the highest danger Monday night into Tuesday morning.
There is a chance the winds could be similar in strength to the fierce gusts that topped 90 miles per hour and fueled the devastating wildfires in Altadena and Pacific Palisades.
The big difference with these winds, though, is that they are expected to affect different locations, as they will blow with a more northeast-to-east tilt than the Jan. 7 event, which had a north-to-northeast tilt, said Rose Schoenfeld, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Oxnard, Calif.
The areas likely to see the strongest gusts include the San Fernando and Santa Clarita Valleys, the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles County and much of Ventura County.
Amid the windy conditions, downed trees, power outages and dangerous ocean conditions are also likely.
The persistent offshore pattern will suck any remaining moisture out of the vegetation, which is already dangerously dry because rain in southwestern California has been “historically scarce,” the Weather Service said.
Relative humidity levels are poised to plummet, especially on Tuesday, and will reach the single digits in some cases. The winds, along with dry fuels and bone-dry air, “would yield locally rapid fire growth with any new fires,” Ms. Schoenfeld said.
Southern California is primed to burn. Big storms soaked the landscape during the previous two winters, allowing vegetation to thrive. But since the spring, the region has had scant rainfall, and grasses and brush are withered and flammable.
The weather gauge in Downtown Los Angeles, a good indicator of rainfall for the county, has only recorded 0.29 inches of rain since May 1. This is the lowest amount of rain ever measured in the roughly 8.5-month period between May 1 and Jan. 17, with records going back to 1877.
At least two inches of rain is needed to significantly lower fire risk, according to Brian Newman, who analyzes wildfire behavior for Cal Fire. Of the expected weather conditions next week, he said, “Hopefully we get no new ignitions, no new fire starts — at all.”
Santa Anas are those desiccating winds that occur commonly in winter, blowing out of Nevada and Utah and into southwestern California. Carrying dry desert air, they push over the mountains in the Transverse Ranges and accelerate as they move downslope, howling into the canyons and valleys.
The winds are expected to mainly affect northern and western portions of Los Angeles County and a majority of Ventura County. At their peak, isolated gusts of 45 m.p.h. to 65 m.p.h. are expected along the coast and in valleys, while isolated gusts up to 80 m.p.h. are possible in the foothills and the mountains.
On Tuesday, warm weather with afternoon temperatures in the high 60s to low 70s, as well as low relative humidity levels in the teens and single digits, will add to the high fire risk.
Winds are expected to be calmer Wednesday, but they could pick back up Thursday night into Friday, before likely relaxing again Friday afternoon.
The Weather Service alerts the community of dire fire conditions through red-flag warnings, and the agency has issued one from 10 a.m. Monday to 10 p.m. Tuesday for portions of Los Angeles County and much of Ventura County. A less severe fire weather watch was issued from 10 p.m. Tuesday through 10 p.m. Thursday.
In the extreme wind event earlier this month, the Weather Service heightened the severity level of the warning with the designation of a “particularly dangerous situation” because isolated gusts of up to 100 m.p.h. were forecast to occur.
The agency may issue another one, potentially for Monday into Tuesday.
Los Angeles has not seen any rain in January, but there is finally a chance for some at the end of the month — though it looks like it may be on the lighter side.
“That’s honestly bad news for our fire weather season here going forward,” Ms. Schoenfeld said.
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