Home prices will be falling all across Florida this year, according to real estate analyst Nick Gerli, giving hopes to aspiring homebuyers who had been squeezed out of the market in recent years.
“Locals are priced out of Florida’s housing market, vacation homeowners have stopped buying, investors have stopped buying, and inbound migration has dropped significantly,” Gerli, CEO of Reventure App, wrote on X earlier this month. “And sure enough: the market is now turning down.”
Why It Matters
Home prices skyrocketed in Florida during the pandemic, more than in other parts of the country, as an inflow of people moving to the state thanks to the possibility of working remotely brought up demand amid a chronic lack of inventory.
The natural slowdown of in-migration after the pandemic, as well as the rise in mortgage rates following the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes to reduce inflation, have since cooled down the once-booming Florida market.
A recent flood of new inventory while mortgage rates remain stubbornly high will now help bring prices down in many areas of the state, according to several experts.
What To Know
The typical value of a home in Florida went up by roughly 60 percent over the past five years, according to data from Reventure App. In November 2019, the typical value of a home in the Sunshine State was $243,000; in November 2024, it was $389,000. At the same time, mortgage rates went up from 3.7 percent to 6.8 percent.
According to Gerli, this lack of affordability “helps explain the big market slowdown in Florida,” where demand for vacation homes hit an eight-year low last year. Redfin says investor demand has dropped from the 2022 peaks, and in-migration has plunged by 79 percent compared to pandemic levels.
Meanwhile, inventory and active listings have been on the rise since 2021, according to Gerli, and are now over 150,000—the highest level since 2017.
“As a result: Reventure App is forecasting price declines all throughout Florida’s housing market in 2025,” Gerli wrote. “These price declines will be welcome news to homebuyers, and finally start returning affordability to a housing market that sorely needs it.”
The latest Realtor.com data on price declines in the country’s 50 largest metropolitan areas shows drops in several Florida cities. In Jacksonville, the median listing price of a home was down -5.7 percent in December 2024 compared to a year earlier, at $384,500.
In the metropolitan area of Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, the median listing price was down -9.9 percent, at $522,500. In Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, it was down -4.3 percent, at $419,950. And in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, it was down -6.0 percent, at $395,000.
Some of these same areas experienced significant increases in new listings. In Jacksonville, new listings were up by 2.5 percent year-on-year in December 2024; in Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, they were up 11.3 percent; in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, they were up 8.0 percent.
In Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, active listings were actually down -8.5 percent.
What People Are Saying
In a recent report predicting price drops in some Florida cities, Norada Real Estate Investment wrote: “With its sunny beaches, vibrant cities, and booming tourism industry, the real estate market in the Sunshine State has seen significant growth over the years. However, with any market experiencing rapid growth, there comes the question of sustainability and the potential for a downturn.”
What’s Next
What’s expected to happen in Florida is not a crash, but a normalization of the state’s housing market after years of booming demand and skyrocketing prices.
While in-migration has slowed down since the pandemic, many continue to move to the Sunshine State every year; according to the latest Census Bureau data, Florida’s population grew by 467,347 in 2024 from the year before, mostly due to the inflow of 411,322 international migrants.
While some areas are experiencing price declines, home prices are still on the rise at the state level. According to Redfin, the median sale price of a home in the Sunshine State was $410,900 in December 2024, up 1.8 percent from a year earlier.
The post Florida Housing Market Facing ‘Widespread Price Declines’ appeared first on Newsweek.
