On October 7, 2023, several thousand Islamist fighters under the command of infiltrated Israel from the , killing around 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages.
Over the following 15 months, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) bombarded and occupied large parts of Gaza. Hamas fought back against the Israeli army, and fired rockets at Israel in return. The militant Islamist organization is classified as a terrorist organization by Israel, its Western allies, and some Arab states.
Estimates vary as to exactly how many Palestinians have been killed in the , but all agree that the figure is in the 10s of thousands. Humanitarian organizations point out that even more have died from indirect consequences of the fighting. According to the UN, almost the entire population of the Gaza Strip has been driven from their homes. For its part, Israel reports that several hundred of its soldiers and other members of the security forces have been killed.
On Wednesday, January 15, 2025, announced a breakthrough in the negotiations to end the violent conflict between Israel and Hamas. For months now, the Emirate has been hosting and mediating talks, alongside the US, Egypt, and Turkey, between the two sides, whose representatives do not communicate with each other directly. Now a plan has been announced for a .
What does the Gaza agreement entail?
If the deal is finalized, a ceasefire will begin on Sunday (January 19, 2025) at 12:15 local time, for an initial period of six weeks. Israel will start to withdraw its troops from the Gaza Strip. Both sides will also release prisoners. Humanitarian aid corridors that are currently blocked will be opened up to aid organizations entering the Gaza Strip.
How many prisoners and hostages will be exchanged?
The first phase of the ceasefire will last 42 days, during which Hamas will release 33 hostages to Israel: first all the remaining women and children, then men aged over 50. The first three hostages are expected to be freed on Sunday.
At this point, 98 of the more than 250 are still held by Hamas. It is unclear how many are still alive. To date, 36 hostages have been declared dead, while more than 110 have been either freed or released alive.
In return for the release of the hostages, Israel will release Palestinian prisoners: 30 for each civilian hostage and 50 for each female soldier. Some of the Palestinian prisoners released will be Hamas fighters, but no one who took part in the terror attack of October 7, 2023 will be included in the exchange.
Which areas will Israel withdraw from?
It is not yet clear from which areas the Israeli army will withdraw and where it intends to stay. Reports indicate that it will primarily leave the densely populated areas of the Gaza Strip. The Netzarim Corridor, which cuts the Gaza Strip in half just south of Gaza City, is also expected gradually to reopen. This would allow people displaced from the northern half of the Strip to return to their homes, or what remains of them. It would also greatly facilitate the within the region.
The IDF will probably only allow the opening of the “Philadelphi corridor,” Israel’s codename for the strip running along the border between Gaza and Egypt, during the second phase of the agreement. This corridor is one of the main bottlenecks for the supply of humanitarian aid.
However, it seems the plan will include the opening of the Rafah border crossing in the south. Along with other entry points, this will allow much more food, medicine, and other supplies to be brought into the Palestinian territory than previously.
What will happen after the first phase of the ceasefire?
An agreement on how to proceed after the first, six-week phase has not yet been found. The two sides still have to negotiate terms for a continuation of the ceasefire, the further withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, and additional exchanges of hostages and prisoners. If these talks fail, the fighting will most likely resume.
Who can claim credit for the Israel-Hamas deal: Joe Biden or Donald Trump?
In addition to Qatar, representatives from Egypt, Turkey, and the United States were involved in mediating between the Israeli government and Hamas. The USA is currently in a period of transition between its outgoing president, Joe Biden, and the president-elect, Donald Trump, who is due to be inaugurated on Monday. Both men have claimed the success of the negotiations for themselves.
In an interview with German radio, the political scientist Johannes Thimm from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) described the result as a “shared success.” President Biden is still in office, and Thimm commented that his team clearly did the bulk of the work for the US over the many months of negotiations in Qatar. However, Thimm added: “The threat scenario that Trump created may well also have played a role.” Another important factor, he said, was that Israel had managed to achieve many of its military objectives.
Last week, Donald Trump issued a warning to Hamas. “If those hostages aren’t back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East,” he said. “And it will not be good for Hamas, and it will not be good, frankly, for anyone. All hell will break out.”
What could still cause the agreement to fail?
The Israeli Cabinet has to approve the ceasefire before it can come into effect. That should have happened on Thursday morning, but the meeting was postponed. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hamas of reneging on parts of the deal to “extort last-minute concessions,” an accusation the spokesman for the Palestinian side denied.
Early Friday morning, Netanyahu’s office confirmed the agreement. The reason for the delay was a discrepancy in the agreed prisoner swap. Israel’s Security Council has since approved the ceasefire, according to Netanyahu’s office.
The full Cabinet must now approve the agreement.
This article has been translated from German.
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