After 15 months of bombardment and suffering in Gaza, the prospect of a cease-fire and a hostage release deal provides Palestinians and Israelis with a glimmer of jubilation, but one tinged with uncertainty.
For Palestinians, the agreement, if it is finalized, is likely to offer at least several weeks of respite from a devastating Israeli military campaign that has killed more than 45,000 people in Gaza, both civilians and combatants.
For Israelis, it could allow for the release of at least a third of the remaining hostages held by Hamas and its allies. The captives were taken when Hamas raided Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, the first of 466 days of war.
But the ambiguity of the deal, drafts of which were reviewed by The Times, also means lingering uncertainty and the possibility of renewed conflict within weeks. To persuade both sides to sign on, mediators forged an arrangement that is worded so loosely that some of its components remain unresolved, meaning that it could easily collapse.
In the first six weeks of the deal, Hamas is expected to release 33 hostages in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Israel is also meant to gradually withdraw its troops eastward, allowing for hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians to return home.
For the six-week arrangement to become permanent, the sides still need to resolve certain issues, including the terms by which Hamas will release the roughly 65 other hostages, some of whom are believed to be dead, in its custody.
Should those talks break down, the war could continue after a 42-day truce, if not earlier.
That means the coming weeks will remain fraught for the families of the Israeli hostages who will likely not be released in the deal’s first phase. Gazans will live with the possibility that Israel’s strikes could continue.
This uncertainty also presents potential peril for both Hamas and Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister.
If war resumes, a severely weakened Hamas might finally lose its grip on Gaza. If the deal becomes permanent, Hamas would survive the war — a symbolic victory for a group that at one point seemed close to ceding its 17-year rule over the territory.
But such an outcome could prove damaging to Mr. Netanyahu, whose far-right coalition partners have threatened to leave his coalition if Hamas survive, destabilizing and potentially collapsing his government.
For months, Mr. Netanyahu has avoided an arrangement that would risk such a threat to his power. The ambiguity of the deal is partly the result of his need to present it as only a temporary arrangement.
The coming weeks could help clarify whether the prime minister feels politically strong enough to face down his coalition partners. Even if he does, other shoals await: The end of the war will likely lead to a national inquiry about Israel’s security failures on Oct. 7, 2023, possibly leading to revelations that could damage Mr. Netanyahu as well as his security chiefs.
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