With the election of new president Joseph Aoun on Thursday (January 9), a two-year period marked by a political vacuum under a previous caretaker government has ended.
“Aoun was seen as the candidate that can bring stability after ,” Kelly Petillo, a Middle East researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told DW.
And yet, the election “was not easy” she said.
“In an initial round of voting, Aoun didn’t manage to secure the 86 votes needed to pass a candidate as president,” Petillo explained.
The as well as its parliamentary ally, the Amal Movement, had abstained from voting, she said.
Lebanon’s is considered a terrorist group by several countries, including the US and the European Union. In contrast, its political wing is represented in parliament and is heavily involved in social welfare issues.
“Before the second round of voting took place, Hezbollah and affiliated movements from the Lebanese Shia community were guaranteed that voting for Aoun was the only way to bring in much-needed regional and Western support into the country whose ,” Petillo said.
She added that the Shia parties were also guaranteed enough representation in the new Lebanese government.
“So, based on that, there was a second round in which Aoun eventually managed to get the majority of 99 votes of the 128 seats in parliament,” Petillo said.
Meanwhile, state leaders from Iran, Israel, the US, France, and many others have , who is not related to the .
“Today, a new phase in Lebanon’s history begins,” General Aoun, who headed the Lebanese army until this week, told lawmakers in after being sworn.
The 61-year-old Joseph Aoun, who was appointed army chief in March 2017, had kept his Lebanese Armed Forces out of the after 12 months of limited fighting into eight weeks of war during which Hezbollah was , and more than .
Lebanon’s presidential elections were announced in late November, a day after the beginning of the 60-day-ceasefire between the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Israel.
The vote on Thursday took place some two weeks before the official end of the ceasefire.
Joseph Aoun’s most urgent task is now to .
As part of the agreement, Lebanon’s military will have to deploy troops alongside United Nations peacekeepers in south Lebanon.
Israel, in turn, has to from Lebanese territory, while Hezbollah will need to deploy its forces some 40 kilometers (25 miles) north of Lebanon’s Litani River.
“Aoun will ensure that the Lebanese army will abide by the ceasefire agreement with the financial and political support of the West and other pro-Israeli countries,” Lorenzo Trombetta, a Middle East analyst and consultant for UN agencies who has lived in Beirut for the past 20 years, told DW.
“Also, Hezbollah was forced to recognize the new reality on the ground after this autumn’s defeat on the ground and the loss of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah,” he added.
This view is echoed by Kelly Petillo. “There have been huge shifts in terms of Hezbollah and Iran’s influence as they suffered major blows as a result of the war in Gaza and its spillover to Lebanon,” she said, adding that the end of Syria’s Iran-backed Assad regime has also weakened Hezbollah and Iran.
And yet, it remains to be seen if Israel and Hezbollah, who have been accusing each other of and have threatened to end it should either side breach the conditions, will comply.
Meanwhile, the still-acting Lebanese said on Friday that the state is about to begin disarming in southern Lebanon.
“We are in a new phase,” Mikati said, explaining that “in this new phase, we will start with south Lebanon and south Litani specifically in order to pull weapons so that the state can be present across Lebanese territory.”
Economic stabilization
This is expected to be one of Mikati’s last statements as caretaker prime minister. One of President Joseph Aoun’s first jobs will be to appoint a new prime minister as soon as possible.
According to the country’s established power-sharing system, the prime minister has to be a Sunni Muslim, the president has to be a Maronite Christian, and the speaker of parliament a Shiite.
One of the new prime minister’s major tasks will be to oversee a series of economic reforms needed to meet the demands of international creditors and the International Monetary Fund.
Without international funds, the economically destitute country will struggle to cope with the skyrocketing inflation or the much-needed reconstruction efforts for large parts of the country’s southern region and Beirut’s suburbs.
“General Aoun is known to be a good executor of orders,” analyst Trombetta said, adding that “he is expected to fulfill his patrons’ agenda [The US, Saudi Arabia, and other countries have indicated that Aoun’s election win paves the way for their investment plans — the ed.], and manage the promised financial aid to Lebanon for physical reconstruction, infrastructural reconstruction, political and financial reforms, and to reshape of the army.”
Edited by: Rob Mudge
The post Lebanon: New president sparks hope for Mideast stability appeared first on Deutsche Welle.
