When Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appeared in front of reporters outside the front door of his residence at Rideau Cottage in Ottawa on Monday, it was a fitting setting for the announcement that would follow.
In the early days of the pandemic, Trudeau would hold regular briefings from the same spot in front of the handsome two-story Georgian Revival mansion he has called home for the last decade. It was a reminder of days past, when Canadians would rally around their prime minister as he delivered updates on the virus and efforts of the government to contain it.
Fast forward to today, when the 53-year-old, one-time icon of the modern progressive movement announced that he would resign from office after losing the support of both Canadian voters and high-ranking members of his own Liberal party, which is on track for a crushing defeat in the national elections that must take place by October.
“This country deserves a real choice in the next election,” an uncharacteristically somber Trudeau said. “I cannot be the best option in that election.”
There was a time when Trudeau was hailed as a transformative figure in international politics. A self-professed environmentalist, feminist, and advocate for refugee and Indigenous rights complete with movie-star looks and a famous last name, Trudeau became a liberal lion in the Western world when he was elected in 2015.
But in retrospect, his honeymoon with Canadians was brief, lasting only about two years. By 2017, his image was already suffering under a growing number of scandals and controversies that went from a simmer to boil during the pandemic that would follow.
In the subsequent elections of 2019 and 2021, the Liberals lost seats in Parliament, forcing Trudeau to form minority governments reliant on the support of a left-wing opposition party, a strategy other progressive leaders worldwide have also adopted to maintain power.
Trudeau’s Liberals, lacking a parliamentary majority, have long depended on support from the center-left New Democratic Party (NDP) to pass legislation and maintain power. That alliance has since unraveled, with NDP leader Jagmeet Singh declaring last month that his party will vote to bring down Trudeau’s government. Other opposition parties have also vowed to do the same.
Describing himself as a “fighter” who hates to back down, Trudeau told reporters on Monday that he knew he could not win the next election while also battling internal divisions within his party.
A Shifting Political Landscape
When he bounded onto the world stage in October 2015, Trudeau’s progressive bonafides seemed an extension of the waning days of the Barack Obama era. That fall, Donald Trump, who had just launched a longshot bid for the U.S. presidency, was covered in the media as little more than a joke. It was an era of unapologetic social liberalism, a time where a male politician could post on what was then called Twitter that he was openly a feminist, and not be mocked for it.
The rise of right-wing leaders like Donald Trump in the United States and shifting cultural dynamics in Western countries quickly challenged the dominance of liberal ideals after Trudeau’s initial victory. Even so, Trudeau sought to position himself as a counterbalance to the Trump era, voicing respect for American voters while frequently weighing in on debates unfolding in Washington.
Few moments exemplified this more than Trudeau’s open welcome to refugees in 2017, shortly after Trump t announced his controversial Muslim ban, barring entry to citizens from several predominantly Muslim countries. “To those fleeing persecution, terror & war, Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith,” Trudeau said at the time. “Diversity is our strength.” In one photo op, Trudeau personally welcomed Syrian refugees arriving at the airport in Toronto and pledged to resettle 25,000 of them in weeks.
At the time, such political moves resonated strongly with Trudeau’s electorate, reflecting national pride in Canada’s image as a beacon of inclusivity. However, like in many Western countries, immigration has since become far more polarizing. Liberal governments, including Trudeau’s, have struggled to reconcile their progressive ideals with growing public skepticism about immigration’s economic and social impacts.
“His long silence following this political drama speaks volumes about the weakness of his current position,” said Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal.
By April 2024, Canada’s population had surpassed 41 million, with immigrants accounting for a staggering 98 percent of the country’s growth in the previous year. While this surge underscored Canada’s commitment to an open-door policy, it also amplified existing challenges. Like its neighbor to the south, Canada faces a housing crisis, soaring living costs and mounting national debt — all issues that Trudeau’s opponents blame, at least partially, on such an open-door policy.
Canada has since revised its immigration targets under pressure. Under a new plan announced last year, the number of permanent residents arriving in 2025 will be reduced by 21 percent, from the original goal of 500,000 to 395,000. Trudeau described this adjustment as a “necessary pause” to allow the Canadian economy and its infrastructure to keep pace with population growth.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party has effectively capitalized on Trudeau’s vulnerabilities, including rising inflation, housing shortages, and lingering pandemic-related dissatisfaction. According to polling aggregator 338Canada, the Conservatives now lead the Liberals by more than 20 points, a dramatic reversal for a party that Trudeau essentially saved and rebuilt in his own image.
“At a certain point, voter consensus becomes impossible to change, and it seems we’ve reached that moment for the Liberals,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, in a post on X. He noted that recent polling data indicates a steep decline in core Liberal support, with numbers falling below the previously assumed floor of 25 percent.
A Covid Tipping Point
All those shifting tides of public sentiment came to a head for Trudeau in early 2022. Fed up with Canada’s maximalist public health policies, protests and blockades sprang up against the country’s vaccine mandates for cross-border truck drivers.
What became known as the Freedom Convoy quickly morphed into a catch-all movement against vaccine mandates and pandemic restrictions across Canada, leading Trudeau to invoke the Emergencies Act for the first time since it was enacted in 1988. The act granted the government temporary powers to address the blockades and protests, which at that point had brought the capital of Ottawa to a near standstill.
Two years later, a federal judge ruled that Trudeau had overstepped his authority by infringing on individual rights. But by that point, the writing had been on the wall for the prime minister. His poll numbers never recovered.
A Global Crisis for Progressivism
Trudeau’s declining fortunes in Canada are part of a larger crisis facing progressive leaders worldwide. Across Western democracies and beyond, the rise of right-wing populism is reshaping political landscapes, forcing progressives to grapple with shifting cultural and economic realities that put them increasingly out of step with an angry electorate.
This retreat was starkly illustrated in the United States, where Kamala Harris lost the 2024 presidential election to none other than Trump. After President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, Harris struggled to address voter concerns about inflation and immigration.
Trump, meanwhile, capitalized on cultural anxieties and economic frustrations, framing them as failures of liberal governance, a strategy echoed by right-wing leaders globally.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron, once a centrist bulwark against far-right populism, has adopted rhetoric closer to Marine Le Pen‘s anti-immigration stance. Macron recently ceded significant influence to Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, granting her effective control over key government decisions. With his parliamentary majority fractured, Macron has been forced into alliances with opposing parties, a sign of progressivism’s fragile footing.
Italy offers another example. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has advanced nationalist policies as far-right parties gain traction across Europe. Hungary, Austria, and Slovakia have shifted further right, forming a hard-right bloc, while Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is now on the verge of becoming the main opposition force in Berlin.
The cultural shift has also swept across Latin America, a region once synonymous with progressive ideas and left-wing governments. Argentina’s recent election of libertarian economist Javier Milei was perhaps the most profound illustration of such an ideological shift. While his controversial views on women’s rights and social programs have sparked criticism, Milei’s economic policies have delivered tangible results, including the country’s lowest inflation rate in four years. He is now widely popular among Argentinians who have struggled for years with hyperinflation and its effects.
Even in the United Kingdom, which has cycled through five prime ministers in five years, Labour leader Keir Starmer is on the political ropes. Brexit-era tensions dominate public discourse, with right-wing rhetoric on immigration, cost-of-living and British sovereignty still resonating strongly with many voters.
These developments underscore the dual pressures progressive leaders face: addressing voter discontent over immigration and economic inequality while countering the growing appeal of nationalist and populist ideologies. So far, few if any have found a way to thread that needle, while the clarity of populist narratives — framing complex global challenges as battles over national identity — has left progressives struggling to articulate a compelling alternative vision for the future.
The post Justin Trudeau and the End of the Modern Progressive Experiment appeared first on Newsweek.
