Since appointment as Bangladesh’s interim leader in August after a student-led movement , Dhaka and Islamabad appear to be on the path to rapprochement.
Pakistani Prime Minister and Yunus agreed to deepen bilateral cooperation in all areas of mutual interest after the two leaders met on the sidelines of a conference in Cairo in December.
Sea links and military ties
The establishment of direct sea links, strained since the 1971 independence war when Bangladeshi nationalists broke away from West Pakistan, has marked a historic thawing of relations.
Bangladesh’s interim government also removed previous restrictions that mandated physical inspections of cargo from Pakistan.
will begin training the Bangladesh Army in February 2025, strengthening military ties between the two nations. will also join Pakistan in the “Aman 2025” joint naval exercises at Karachi port.
As Pakistan bolsters ties with Bangladesh, there are concerns about potential security threats in the region, with closely monitoring developments that have the potential to reshape the power dynamics in South Asia.
Strategic implications for India
Dhaka’s ties with New Delhi have frayed since the ousting of Hasina, who had India’s backing and now lives in exile there.
Foreign policy experts and diplomats highlight that India must navigate a complex geopolitical environment marked by instability and security threats in its northeastern states.
While New Delhi closely monitors these developments, it is also ramping up security along its border with Bangladesh.
“There is no doubt that relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan have improved overall. This shift has security implications for India’s northeastern states,” Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, founder of the Mantraya Institute of Strategic Studies, told DW.
New Delhi has long been concerned about human trafficking, infiltration and militant insurgencies along the frontier, particularly as Bangladesh borders the Indian states of West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram, which are prone to violent outbreaks.
“The important questions to consider are whether these strengthening ties are simply a reaction to India’s tactical pressure, or if they are part of a larger design to destabilize India. If we assume the latter is true, can the present regime in Dhaka afford to pursue such a policy? The answer is no,” said D’Souza.
Pakistan’s growing influence in Bangladesh
According to D’Souza, it remains unclear whether Yunus’ policies will resonate with Bangladesh’s bureaucracy, for whom the interim government is a stop-gap arrangement.
“New Delhi needs to have its eyes and ears on the ground to craft policies to deal with the rapidly changing internal and external dynamics in the region,” she added.
Ajay Bisaria, a former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan, told DW that India’s longstanding relation with its neighbors, , focuses on fostering prosperity in exchange for addressing India’s security concerns.
“This understanding is being challenged by the new regime in Dhaka,” said Bisara, who added that Pakistan’s efforts to rebuild security ties with Bangladesh and counter Indian influence could destabilize the regional security balance.
“While India will closely monitor this evolving dynamic, it may also need to check Pakistan’s growing influence in the eastern periphery through proactive military postures and security measures,” Bisara noted.
Weapon transfers raise concerns
Specifically, the new alliance between Pakistan and Bangladesh poses a significant threat to India’s strategic interests, particularly to the Siliguri corridor, often referred to as the Chicken Neck.
The geopolitically sensitive passage connects northeastern Indian states to the rest of India through a narrow strip of Indian territory measuring 20-22 kilometers (12-14 miles) at its narrowest section.
India fears might aim to establish its presence near the corridor under the guise of development work with Bangladesh.
Meanwhile, India has ramped up security along its border with Bangladesh, deploying technological solutions and conducting high-level Border Security Force inspections to address vulnerabilities and curb infiltration and smuggling along unfenced border areas.
“India would have security concerns about transfer of weapons and explosives to Bangladesh for use by Islamic terrorists who have been set free by the Yunus-led interim government,” Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, a former high commissioner to Bangladesh, told DW.
Chakravarty claimed that the transfer of these weapons to insurgent groups in India could create significant security issues.
However, Sreeradha Datta, a Bangladesh expert from the Jindal School of International Affairs, told DW that though Indo-Bangladesh ties are presently going through a difficult period, tempers will settle down once an elected government is established in Bangladesh.
“Though Bangladesh and Pakistan are showing signs of engagement, it is India that holds a more vital position for the former,” said Datta.
“Both sides need to overcome the present rhetoric and get down to business. Once the bilateral engagement resumes, Indian security concerns will certainly be taken into cognition and this will happen only when the neighbors choose to engage and not raise unnecessary issues,” Datta concluded.
Edited by: Keith Walker
The post How Bangladesh-Pakistan reconciliation impacts India appeared first on Deutsche Welle.
