Hawaii should brace for a potential tropical cyclone, forecasters said, warning that it could strengthen into a tropical storm named Lala and bring significant hazards to the islands this weekend.
The system was still a ragged cluster of clouds early Wednesday, but the National Hurricane Center took the unusual step of issuing forecast tracks before it formed into a storm — a signal that meteorologists are increasingly confident it will organize and head toward land. The National Weather Service in Honolulu said in an early morning forecast that residents and visitors should prepare now.
Rarely, but occasionally, since the Hurricane Center began issuing Potential Tropical Cyclone forecasts in 2017 has the potential cyclone never materialized.
If the current predictions hold, conditions are expected to deteriorate on the Big Island on Friday before spreading west to Maui on Saturday, and across to Lanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai on Sunday.
High Uncertainty in the Forecast
Because the system is still in its formative stages, calculating its precise track remains tricky. Computer models rely heavily on pinpointing a storm’s center, which becomes far easier to do once a structured tropical cyclone takes shape. A shift of just a few dozen miles in the storm’s track drastically alters what each island experiences:
Direct hit or southern track: The worst of the storm would directly strike the Big Island or sweep just south of the chain, placing the strongest winds and heaviest rain over the islands.
Northern track: The weaker side of the system would brush the chain, probably dampening the overall impact.
Rare Territory for Hurricanes
Should Lala reach hurricane intensity — with sustained winds of at least 74 miles per hour — it would join an exclusive group. Since 1950, only 19 hurricanes have passed within 100 miles of Hawaii, eight of them during El Niño years. Just two have made official landfall in Hawaii: Hurricane Dot in 1959 and Hurricane Iniki in 1992.
Key Effects to Watch
Even if the storm stays just offshore, forecasters warn that its footprint could produce multiple severe hazards across the chain:
Heavy rainfall and flooding: Lala could dump five to 10 inches of rain across much of the state, with isolated totals reaching up to 20 inches. On terrain already saturated by Kona low flooding this year, that volume raises a steep risk of flash floods and mudslides.
Strengthening winds: Winds on Wednesday remained below tropical storm force, but conditions favor intensification as the system approaches the islands. The terrain in the storm’s ultimate path will play a major role, as passing tropical systems can squeeze and accelerate trade winds over mountain ridges.
Elevated fire danger: Before the rain arrives, gusty trade winds, which blow east to west near the Equator, might interact with drier parts of the landscape. That could create near critical fire weather conditions on Friday into the weekend — like those that fed the devastating Lahaina wildfire in 2023.
Dangerous surf: A large swell from the east will build as the storm advances, pushing warning-level surf of 15 feet or higher onto east-facing shores.
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