Let’s take a look at Pete Alonso’s free agency.
At the beginning of the offseason, Alonso had an aggressive market, but it wasn’t as aggressive as he may have liked. There were a lot of teams interested in him despite the rumored $200 million price tag. The incumbent New York Mets led the pack.
After Juan Soto signed with the Mets, Alonso’s market shifted a bit. Mets owner Steve Cohen just paid Soto nearly $800 million, so it may be tough to win another bidding war for Alonso.
The Washington Nationals, Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, and numerous other teams were reportedly interested in Alonso as well.
His market has now dwindled to near nothing.
The Mets remain in pursuit, but likely not at the $200 million price tag Alonso reportedly wanted in November.
The Astros signed free agent Christian Walker, which took them out of the sweepstakes. The Nationals traded for Texas Rangers first baseman Nathaniel Lowe and the Yankees signed Paul Goldschmidt. Both of those suitors are out as well.
This leaves the Mets and the Mariners with a very small chance that another team enters the race late.
Could the Mariners actually steal Alonso from the Mets?
The answer to that question is a very surprising yes. It is possible, but it’s not likely. For the Mariners to steal Alonso, they would need to offer him well over $150 million.
If Seattle offers him in the range of $180 million to $200 million, it’s unlikely Mets owner Steve Cohen is willing to match that. Cohen would likely pivot to adding another corner infielder, potentially St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado.
Admittedly, the Mariners don’t have a great shot to pull this off, but it is possible. As of Monday, I would say it’s an 80 percent chance Alonso returns to the Mets, 19 percent chance the Mariners steal him, and a one percent chance he bolts to a dark horse team.
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