Leaders of some labor unions tried to establish good relations with Donald J. Trump before the election — and for one of them, that effort may already be paying off.
President-elect Trump lent his support on Thursday to the International Longshoremen’s Association, which represents dockworkers on the East and Gulf Coasts. Contract negotiations between the union and employers have broken down over the use of port machinery that can move cargo without human involvement. The I.L.A. opposes it, believing it reduces jobs, but the employers, mainly large shipping companies, have said that the equipment moves goods more cheaply and efficiently.
Writing on Truth Social, Mr. Trump said on Thursday that he had met with I.L.A. leaders and that he sympathized with the union’s fears.
“I’ve studied automation, and know just about everything there is to know about it,” he said. “The amount of money saved is nowhere near the distress, hurt, and harm it causes for American Workers, in this case, our Longshoremen.”
The union suspended a short strike in October after securing a large wage increase, and agreed to keep negotiating with port operators until Jan. 15 on other parts of the contract, including provisions on how much automated machinery can be used.
Mr. Trump won a second presidential term with the support of many union members, and he has vowed to protect American workers. And while it is unclear how much he will do to help the labor movement broadly, his backing of the I.L.A. suggests he could strengthen the hand of unions that have courted him.
“I suspect this support is highly selective, and extends only to those unions who have shown some friendliness — or at least neutrality — toward Trump, as is the case with the I.L.A. leadership,” said Jake Rosenfeld, a sociologist who studies labor at Washington University in St. Louis.
Unlike many unions, the I.L.A. did not endorse Vice President Kamala Harris, and its leader, Harold J. Daggett, has sought to forge a personal connection with Mr. Trump, meeting him at Mar-a-Lago last year and again on Thursday.
“He has stood up for us in his strong statement against the foreign-owned ocean carriers pushing automation on American ports and then taking their billion-dollar profits back home with them,” Mr. Daggett said in a statement.
The East and Gulf Coast ports — including huge hubs in New Jersey, Virginia and Georgia — handle three-fifths of U.S. container traffic. A strike would strand large amounts of cargo at sea. Businesses would lose sales, manufacturers might not get crucial parts and supply chains could seize up. That would push up shipping rates and inflation. A strike would also deepen the disruption that would accompany any new tariffs Mr. Trump imposes.
Without a deal, the I.L.A. members could go back on strike, closing major ports — and once again sending many businesses into a panic — days before Mr. Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20.
Siding with the I.L.A. against port employers, which negotiate labor contracts jointly through the United States Maritime Alliance, might be the easiest way for Mr. Trump to get a deal and avoid an economic mess on his first day in office.
The October truce in the contract talks came after President Biden leaned on the alliance to make concessions. In the end, it agreed to pay the longshoremen $63 per hour by the end of a new six-year contract, over 60 percent higher than the $39 per hour paid today. It was one of the biggest pay rises obtained by a union in recent years, and ensures that longshoremen remain among the best-paid blue-collar workers in the country.
At the Port of New York and New Jersey, nearly 60 percent of the longshoremen made $100,000 to $200,000 in the 12 months through June 2020, the latest figures available, according to data from an agency that helped oversee the port.
The big question is whether the maritime alliance will bend to Mr. Trump’s wishes.
Automated port machinery can greatly increase efficiency. On the West Coast, where longshoremen are represented by a different union that has been more accepting of automation, the equipment has allowed some port terminals to handle a lot more cargo.
Long Beach Container Terminal, thought to be the most automated such operation in the United States, achieved average annual growth in recent years that far exceeds that of other terminals at the Port of Long Beach, according to state data. The Port of Virginia, one of only two ports on the East and Gulf Coasts that use automated machinery, has grown and employed more union members in recent years.
After Mr. Trump’s show of support for the I.L.A., the maritime alliance asserted that more efficient ports benefit the whole economy, saying the labor contract was “about supporting American consumers and giving American businesses access to the global marketplace.”
It’s hard to know whether the union and the employers could compromise on automation. The deadlock in talks appears to center on equipment such as “semi-automated” cranes, which lift containers, stack them and load them onto trucks. They are called semi-automated because a human operator is not involved in the stacking of containers.
Under the expired contract, port operators were permitted to use semi-automated technology, but in recent weeks, I.L.A. leaders have spoken out against such equipment as well. This suggests they want new restrictions on its use, but have not publicly said what changes they are seeking. The union did not respond to requests for comment.
Before the October strike, the maritime alliance said it had offered to carry the old contract’s technology provisions into the new one. That contract said semi-automated equipment could be introduced only when both parties agreed to work force protections and staffing levels.
In a statement to The Times, the maritime alliance said it was committed to keeping the protections in place, but added, “Our focus now is how to also strengthen the ability to implement equipment that will improve safety, and increase efficiency, productivity and capacity.”
Some labor experts don’t expect the I.L.A. to compromise easily on automation.
“They’re saying to the maritime alliance and to the public, ‘This is a very serious issue for us,’” said William Brucher, an assistant professor at the Rutgers School of Management and Labor Relations.
If the dockworkers do go on strike, there will be significant pressure on Mr. Trump to turn against the I.L.A. Republicans in Congress, for example, could push him to use a 1947 law, the Taft-Hartley Act, to force the union members back to work.
When the I.L.A. went on strike in October, Representative Sam Graves, the Missouri Republican who leads the House Transportation Committee, in a statement called on Mr. Biden to invoke Taft-Hartley. He said the walkout could cause “devastating economic impacts.” Mr. Graves did not respond when asked if he thought Mr. Trump should invoke the law if dockworkers struck again.
Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for Mr. Trump’s transition team, did not respond to a question about whether Mr. Trump might invoke Taft-Hartley. In an emailed statement, she said, “President Trump will keep his promise to the hardworking men and women of America by bringing jobs back home, restoring American manufacturing, slashing inflation and cutting taxes.”
But some in Mr. Trump’s inner circle have been critical of the I.L.A.
Vivek Ramaswamy, co-leader of what Mr. Trump has called the Department of Government Efficiency, tore into the union in an October post on X for opposing automation. “Union bosses’ efforts to coddle workers by limiting innovation leaves the whole country worse off as a result,” he wrote.
And Elon Musk, the chief executive of Tesla and the other leader of the government efficiency agency, mocked Mr. Daggett, the I.L.A. leader, for having owned a yacht.
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