Muggy summertime heat continues to grip much of the country, driving temperatures above seasonal averages and increasing the likelihood once again of afternoon thunderstorms. These systems threaten damaging winds and heavy rain into the evening hours across a broad swath of the United States, though a subtle shift in the weather pattern offers impending relief.
Monday: Severe storms from Midwest to the Northeast
The sultry, stormy weekend weather in the Northeast endures into the week. The primary corridor to watch for severe storms stretches from the Dakotas through Illinois and eastward into Pennsylvania, pushing close to New York City, where a minimal risk remains Monday evening. In the Southwest, the summer monsoon will trigger similar afternoon activity.
Damaging winds pose the main threat, though a low probability of quick spin-up tornadoes exists across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic States. Hail is also possible along the northern tier of storms, with the highest risk for large hail focused over the Northern Plains. Across nearly the entire Eastern United States, a broad marginal risk for excessive rain persists. Forecasters have higher confidence that localized flash flooding will actually materialize from Northern Illinois into Ohio through Tuesday morning.
Tuesday: A somewhat subtle shift out of the Northeast
The general pattern from Monday holds, but repeated rainfall over the same areas of the Midwest will lightly elevate the flash-flood risk in Ohio and West Virginia by Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The severe threat area will dip farther south on its eastern flank, moving out of New York and deeper into the Mid-Atlantic, placing Philadelphia and Washington under at least some risk. But that remains primarily focused from Northern Illinois into Ohio, where storms could bring damaging winds, hail and potentially tornadoes.
Wednesday: When it really starts to change
The storm system continues to sag farther south. Severe activity will concentrate more heavily over South Dakota, though the broader storm possibility stretches all the way toward the Carolinas. Most of the area north of the severe threat will see high temperatures retreat.
Thursday and beyond: Some relief from the heat
As these storms slowly press south over the week, they will drag down the core heat along with them. That shift should allow much of the Midwest to enjoy a multiday break, with temperatures dropping to seasonal or even below-average levels. While major cities along the Northeast corridor will wait longer to feel the change, forecasters at the National Weather Service office in New York indicate that relief is in sight for later this week.
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