France’s prime minister, Michel Barnier, is facing a no-confidence vote that could leave the country without a functioning government or a budget as it enters the new year.
Does that mean France is hurtling toward a constitutional crisis, or an American-style government shutdown in which civil servants are unpaid and departments are unfunded? Not exactly.
France’s Constitution offers several scenarios that could keep the country’s affairs more or less in order. French institutions are relatively strong, and the country’s laws provide for continuity in the absence of a government and a budget. But it will also pay a price: Investors are already selling off French stocks and bonds, raising its borrowing costs.
How did France get here?
Mr. Barnier was appointed in September by President Emmanuel Macron, who ignored parliamentary election results that were disastrous for his party and its allies. Instead of naming a politician from the leftist coalition that won the most votes in the election, Mr. Macron called on Mr. Barnier, a figure from the traditional centrist right. The leftist coalition was furious.
Since then, Mr. Barnier has been living “the hell of Matignon,” a phrase used by generations of political commentators to describe the difficulties of reigning from Matignon Palace, seat of the government, where a prime minister has some power, but hardly all of it.
On Monday, Mr. Barnier pushed a budget bill through the lower house of Parliament without a vote — a risky move that led to no-confidence motions filed by both French left-wing parties and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party.
The fate of Mr. Barnier and of his cabinet, both appointed by Mr. Macron just three months ago, now rests in their hands.
What happens next?
The no-confidence vote is expected to take place as early as Wednesday and is likely to pass. Mr. Barnier would then have no choice but to resign, and the government would enter caretaker mode.
Mr. Macron’s previous government also drifted along in caretaker mode from July to September. It was empowered under the Constitution to handle “current affairs” but was limited in its powers.
No legal texts detail exactly what those limits are, but French jurists agree that a caretaker government can’t propose new laws or issue new decrees. But it can take care of government business like paying workers and distributing pensions, for instance. The cabinet no longer meets.
It will then be up to Mr. Macron, once again, to appoint a new prime minister. He can take his time, and he can appoint whomever he likes — and not necessarily someone from the majority party in Parliament.
What about the budget?
The budget itself would enter a kind of limbo. Without a functioning government, the budget proposed by Mr. Barnier, with around $60 billion of tax increases and spending cuts, would be dead on arrival. If Mr. Macron acts quickly and appoints a new prime minister before the end of the year, a new government budget could be submitted, and the Parliament would have 70 days to examine it.
But that would still mean France would not have a spending law by the new year. Under French law, the government could simply propose a “special measure” reapplying the 2024 budget, by Dec. 19. The civil servants would be paid and taxes would remain at their current level.
If Parliament refuses to go along or does not hold a vote, Mr. Macron could invoke his extraordinary constitutional powers and simply impose a budget. But jurists agree that the political consequences of such an untested move could be severe, especially at a time when the French president is increasingly challenged for failing to respect the voice of French voters.
What happens to Macron?
Under France’s constitution, Mr. Macron will remain as president until his term expires in 2027, but it seems almost certain that his stature will be even more diminished. Some politicians on both the left and the right are already calling for his resignation, but he has resisted those calls. He is term limited, and cannot seek another stint in office.
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