Prime Minister Michel Barnier of France pushed a budget bill through the lower house of Parliament without a vote on Monday — a risky move that sets the stage for a likely no-confidence motion this week that could topple the government.
The prospect of a government collapse — and of a failure to pass a budget — has rattled financial markets, sharply increased France’s borrowing costs, and further deepened the uncertainty that has gripped the country since snap elections last summer yielded no clear parliamentary majority.
The fate of Mr. Barnier and of his cabinet, both appointed by President Emmanuel Macron just three months ago, now rests almost entirely in the hands of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party.
Mr. Macron, whose term runs until the spring of 2027, will remain as president even if Mr. Barnier and his cabinet fall. But Mr. Macron will need to appoint a new prime minister.
Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Barnier, a veteran center-right politician, have engaged in a game of chicken over the past week. Ms. Le Pen dangled the threat of a no-confidence motion ever more vocally if Mr. Barnier did not accede to her demands on the budget. Mr. Barnier warned of “serious turbulence on the financial markets” and the troubles ahead if the country reaches the new year without a budget — warnings that Ms. Le Pen has dismissed as fear-mongering and “fake news.”
Mr. Barnier made some concessions, announcing that he was scrapping a hike in electricity taxes and reducing health care coverage for undocumented people. But Ms. Le Pen indicated those changes were not enough to sway her lawmakers from joining those on the left who oppose Mr. Barnier’s leadership in voting to topple the government.
On Monday morning, the National Rally’s president, Jordan Bardella, said on French radio that the party’s legislators would vote to bring down the government unless there was “a last-minute miracle” and Mr. Barnier conceded more.
Then, at midday on Monday, just hours before a potential vote, Mr. Barnier made another gesture to Ms. Le Pen by promising that the government would not reduce medication reimbursements.
“The Government reiterates the importance and imperative need for France to have financial texts and a budget for 2025,” Mr. Barnier’s office said in a statement.
All the uncertainty has caused widespread anxiety.
“We won’t have a budget, we won’t have a government — there is no sense of the day after,” said Nicole Bacharan, a political scientist in Paris. “We have no idea what will happen.”
Many believed this was the inevitable outcome of last summer’s snap election, which resulted in a bitterly fragmented National Assembly, France’s lower house of Parliament. No party or bloc was even close to having a majority. Instead, the house is divided into three main blocs: the anti-immigrant, nationalist National Rally and its allies; the alliance of four left-wing parties called the New Popular Front; and a tenuous coalition of centrists and conservatives who support Mr. Barnier.
Mr. Barnier was appointed by Mr. Macron in an attempt to break the deadlock that has gripped the lower house since the snap elections. But the move infuriated the New Popular Front, which has the most seats and is deeply opposed to the government’s economic policies.
The left has vowed to topple Mr. Barnier’s government, but it needs the far-right’s votes to do so, leaving Ms. Le Pen in the position of kingmaker.
Without enough votes to get bills through parliament on its own, Mr. Barnier’s government has been forced to rely on the tacit support of the far right. But it has not wanted to cede too much either, since many government members were elected to block the far right from gaining power, Benjamin Morel, a lecturer in public law at Panthéon-Assas University in Paris, said.
“This blockage is not so much about the measures, which were expected, particularly on electricity. It’s really about symbolism,” said Mr. Morel. “But that symbolism has profoundly important electoral impacts.”
The budget was the government’s first major test. To add to the pressure, France already has one of the highest ratios of debt to economic output in the euro area, as well as a spiraling deficit that has provoked a reprimand from the European Union. In response, Mr. Barnier was tasked with cutting the budget by 60 billion euros ($63 billion), using a mix of public spending cuts and raising taxes — both highly unpopular in France.
According to recent polls, the majority of French public opinion is opposed to passing an austerity budget requiring spending cuts and increased taxes, and a small majority wants the Barnier government to fall.
Mr. Barnier could have let Monday’s bill go to a vote, and it would have continued the legislative process. But the government is facing a constitutionally mandated deadline to finalize the budget by the end of the year, and the political deadlock in the lower house is not expected to end anytime soon — meaning he has few other options than to force it through.
To do so, Mr. Barnier invoked Article 49.3 of France’s Constitution to push through the legislation — a social security spending bill.
It was the first of three budget bills that could lead to the government’s falling. A second, smaller bill adjusting 2024 finances is expected to be voted on later this week. Finally, the main government budget for 2025 is expected to come to a vote around Dec. 20.
In each case, the entrenched political deadlock in the National Assembly raises the same perilous specter — the repeated use of Article 49.3, creating a crescendo of no-confidence votes for the government over the coming weeks.
Using Article 49.3 gives opposition lawmakers 24 hours to file a no-confidence motion against the government. Then, the motion would be put to a vote within days. If an absolute majority of lawmakers in the lower house supports the motion, Mr. Barnier and his cabinet would have to resign, and Mr. Macron would have to appoint a new prime minister.
Under the Constitution, Mr. Macron cannot dissolve the assembly and call new legislative elections before July 2025.
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