This article is part of the Polish Presidency of the EU special report.
Poland takes over the Council of the European Union’s rotating presidency from the Hungarians at a moment of flux within and outside the bloc.
Their turn in the legislative hot seat coincides with the arrival of a fresh crop of commissioners, the three-year anniversary of Ukraine’s full-scale invasion by Russia (assuming the United States’ President-elect Donald Trump doesn’t broker a peace deal before then), Trump’s own inauguration and a presidential election at home.
With an ambitious six-month policy agenda themed around different types of security — external and military, energy, economic, food and climate, health and information — Poland will have its work cut out.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk is a former European Council president and connoisseur of the Brussels machine. But how much will Poland get done on his watch?
Here’s a rundown of some of the files on the to-do list.
Preparing for Trump tariffs
Why it matters: U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s promises to impose across-the-board tariffs of 10 to 20 percent, and 60 percent on Chinese goods, are fueling fears in Brussels that the EU’s trade flows could be massively disrupted.
State of play: With a second Trump mandate expected to be even worse for trade than the first, the European Commission is adamant that it is better prepared this time around. But bringing Trump to the negotiating table will require the EU to showcase all of the trade defense arsenal it has been building since his first tenure. Down the line, the EU will also want to hit key goods in Trump’s constituencies ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in 2026, just as it did during his first term.
In the short term, Washington and Brussels will have to solve the Trump-initiated dispute on steel and aluminum, which the two sides have not been able to solve despite the more EU-friendly Biden administration. A truce on the EU’s own retaliatory tariffs will lapse in March 2025, a couple of months into Trump’s tenure and in the middle of the Polish presidency.
EU fault lines: Transatlantic trade tensions will be a huge test of EU unity, with Germany and France — its two biggest economies — both in political turmoil at home. European capitals are expected to bilaterally seek to curry favor with Trump — who is known to prefer dealing directly with EU countries over negotiating with the Commission.
Likely progress:
Trump’s trade offensive is coming and the EU will have to be ready to retaliate — Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called on the bloc to rely on its own capabilities shortly before the U.S. election, saying “the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over.” That will put a premium on his crisis-management skills as the convener of the EU’s 27 member countries.
— Camille Gijs
Foreign direct investment screening
Why it matters: Reviewing the current system of screening foreign direct investments aims to harmonize a national patchwork among EU countries — in which some aren’t able to monitor such investments at all. This regulation is a key plank of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s economic security strategy, which seeks to shield sensitive assets, such as semiconductors or artificial intelligence technology, from falling into the hands of rivals.
State of play: More than a year since it was launched, the economic security strategy remains in its early stages, with EU countries worried that Brussels will encroach upon what they see as their own key competences.
The Hungarian presidency of the Council of the EU achieved little progress on the overall strategy — careful not to stir the pot too much with China — but has presented a first compromise text that would narrow the list of critical sectors for which deals would need to be screened and notified to member countries and the Commission. The Poles will have to land on a general approach to enter into negotiations with members of the European Parliament. The Parliament, meanwhile, doesn’t have a position on the file yet, with lead lawmakers only recently appointed.
EU fault lines: Economic security is expected to be a priority of the incoming Polish presidency. Out of the different texts that are part of the EU’s economic security strategy, reviewing the foreign direct investment screening system is the least sensitive one.
Likely progress:
All will depend on how European lawmakers respond to the Hungarian compromise text.
— Camille Gijs
Streamlining customs
Why it matters: The bloc’s customs union requires an overhaul to work more smoothly and coherently. Poland has the unenviable task of trying to unify EU countries around a proposal to share more data and coordinate customs issues centrally.
State of play: The Union Customs Code, or UCC, effectively governs a huge IT project: a database where the 27 customs authorities from across the bloc will be able to share relevant information on risks they see. In his parliamentary hearing, incoming Trade and Economic Security Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič said he’s willing to set up the connected central EU authority two years earlier, in 2026 instead of 2028. As always when an EU law hopes to centralize issues on a bloc-wide basis, member countries can be tough to convince. There is, however, understanding that a functional customs system is very much required to prevent a leaky and fragmenting single market.
EU fault lines: The customs reform is done on the European Parliament’s side, with Dutch lawmaker Dirk Gotink (European People’s Party) taking over from Irish former colleague Deirdre Clune, who did not run in the June election. Gotink expects the Council of the EU will need a few more months to form its opinion, which is needed before interinstitutional negotiations can really start.
Likely progress:
This is where Poland comes in, and Gotink told POLITICO he’s already been contacted by the relevant people from Warsaw to get a lowdown on what needs to be done. He said they aim to get a Council compromise by April or May. “If we can start trilogues before the summer, that would be great,” Gotink concluded.
— Koen Verhelst
Russia sanctions
Why it matters: Taking over from notoriously Kremlin-friendly Hungary, Donald Tusk’s Poland is set to shepherd through a major package of sanctions against Russia in time to mark the third year since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. As POLITICO reported, the EU hopes to put together one smaller package before the end of the year.
State of play: Poland will face a real headache rallying support for next year’s package, which would seek to do much more than just list people and entities implicated in undermining Ukraine.
EU fault lines: Items on the table for the February package could be an extension of the so-called no-Russia clause to subsidiaries of EU companies, the freedom of movement of Russian diplomats in the borderless Schengen zone, sanctions on aluminum and further energy-related topics like oil and gas. Poland is a major supporter of Ukraine inside the EU and is therefore expected to push for additional measures — along with like-minded governments in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — against Russia and Belarus.
Likely progress:
With Beijing’s support for Russia’s war becoming more overt, Warsaw will need to push for a clearer Council line on China. Even though some Chinese entities have ended up on the EU’s blacklist, that hasn’t stopped Beijing from openly supporting Moscow. China might even be producing drones directly for Putin’s war machine. There is, however, little room for the bloc to do more as neither the European Commission nor member countries want to be accused of applying their sanctions extraterritorially.
— Koen Verhelst
Ukraine trade talks
Why it matters: Ukraine needs an overhaul of its trading relationship with the EU, which relies on a hand-to-mouth renewal of emergency preferences created to help it ride out the economic devastation caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. That would be a first step on Kyiv’s long road to membership.
State of play: This won’t be a new free-trade deal, but rather an update to the existing agreement from 2016, revising quotas and removing tariffs on a wide range of farm goods in a bid to lay the groundwork for Ukraine’s future accession to the EU and its continued integration into the single market.
EU fault lines: Following the experience of the emergency trade measures implemented by the EU in the wake of Russia’s aggression, which froze all tariffs on Ukrainian goods, Kyiv’s appetite is for this state of things to remain to the largest extent possible. But EU countries, especially those bordering Ukraine, are balking, fearing that a continued influx of agricultural goods will destabilize their markets and trigger a revolt by their farmers.
Likely progress:
A deal must be reached before the emergency trade measures expire in early June, or the two sides will be forced to return to tariffs and quotas that could crush Ukraine’s economy. The question is whether the compromise will satisfy both sides equally.
— Bartosz Brzeziński
Gene-edited crops
Why it matters: The invention of the so-called CRISPR scissors more than a decade ago has spurred unprecedented advances in the field of genetics. The technology has enabled the development of vaccines and other drugs, and proponents say it also brings new generations of crops resistant to extreme weather and disease within reach.
State of play: The European Commission proposed new rules last year that would treat the technology, dubbed new genomic techniques, separately from genetically modified organisms and the stigma they carry of Frankenstein crops and greedy corporations. Despite initial progress in the European Parliament and member countries, the rules have become bogged down as Hungary and Poland, the current and next holders of the Council presidency, have dragged their feet.
EU fault lines: These countries fear that using the nascent technology in agriculture would further tighten the grip of a handful of multinational corporations on the food system by allowing them to patent the stuff, to the detriment of small and organic producers. In an attempt to break the deadlock, countries pushing for quick adoption put an amendment on the table over the summer that would exclude patentability of at least some gene-edited crops. Not much has happened on Hungary’s watch, but the Polish government has expressed mild support for the technology in recent months. The patent amendment may be enough to get Warsaw on board, although critics say it only pays lip service to the issue.
Likely progress:
If Warsaw wants to keep the amendment on the table, it will have to move quickly. Denmark is the next country to hold the Council presidency, and it’s one of the biggest proponents of keeping the rules as flexible as possible.
— Bartosz Brzeziński
Animal transport rules
Why it matters: An overhaul of the EU’s two decade-old rules on the protection of animals during transport has been on the table for a year, as millions of animals continue to be exported within and outside of the EU. The new rules would set stricter limits on journey length, temperature, or the age of the animal. In addition, the draft tries to solve loopholes and lack of oversight in the current rules, which can lead to avoidable animal welfare disasters and economic losses.
State of play: The EU executive put forward the proposal in December 2023, alongside another bill on the welfare of cats and dogs. Since then, lawmakers have made progress on the pets file but are dragging their feet on the new transport rules. Currently, the European People’s Party is pushing for a further delay to negotiations in the European Parliament while the Council of the EU is still at the beginning of talks at expert level.
EU fault lines: Some member countries that are heavy exporters of live animals have raised concerns over increased requirements. Likewise, larger countries and others where extreme temperatures are easily reached, have also complained that the rules don’t take into consideration territorial particularities.
Likely progress:
Talks will continue during the Polish presidency but a breakthrough is unlikely.
— Paula Andrés
A first soil law
Why it matters: Over 60 percent of Europe’s soils are degraded, threatening biodiversity, carbon storage and agricultural productivity. A centimeter of topsoil takes decades to form and that earth is being polluted, flooded and baked much faster. The monitoring directive forces countries to observe and report progress on restoring all the bloc’s soils by 2050.
State of play: Backlash against the Green Deal meant the European Commission only put out an anemic proposal in July 2023. The bill trudged its way through the legislative process, before narrowly surviving a last-minute hit in plenary by the European People’s Party (EPP). The European Parliament adopted its position in April; the Council of the European Union in June. Inter-institutional negotiations began in November.
EU fault lines: Most EU countries want a law without binding targets, since they see soils as a national competence. Poland is particularly sensitive because of its vast Turów coal mine, perched on the border with Germany and Czechia. Right-wing and far-right groups agree. This all but guarantees the law will remain weak, more hop ahead than leap forward.
Likely progress:
Everyone wants a soil law, albeit a limited one. The Hungarian presidency of the Council of the EU made it one of its environmental priorities and missed closing it by a whisker (though allegedly one caused by the EPP to stop Viktor Orbán claiming it as a victory).
— Alessandro Ford
Anti-greenwashing rules
Why it matters: As part of the Green Deal, the EU is introducing anti-greenwashing rules to prevent companies from misleading consumers with unfounded claims that their products and services are good for the planet.
State of play: After the European Commission put forward a proposal in March 2023, the Council of the EU and the European Parliament both finalized their positions on the Green Claims Directive earlier this year. Negotiations on the law’s final shape were meant to start during the Hungarian presidency of the Council of the EU, but have been delayed by the commissioner hearings and political animosity between members of the European Parliament and the Hungarians.
EU fault lines: The key debate will be over how much proof companies will be asked to give when substantiating environmental claims, and whether these claims can be based on companies using carbon offsets. MEPs want strict rules on verification and strict limits on carbon offsets, while EU countries prefer not to overburden companies and pitched a simplified procedure.
Likely progress:
— Marianne Gros
Cash for weapons
Why it matters: The European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) is a regulation presented by the European Commission in March that aims to make the European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) a reality. EDIS, for example, foresees that by 2030 at least 40 percent of military equipment should be purchased jointly by European Union countries. But EDIS is just a communication, meaning it’s not binding, and the cash — albeit not very substantial — is in EDIP. EDIP, among other things, includes plans to make joint procurement easier, as well as rules to ensure security of supply and, at least for now, emergency powers for the Commission to prioritize defense orders over civilian ones in an emergency. EDIP has a budget of €1.5 billion until 2027, which is considered “peanuts” by the defense industry and diplomats. However, both EDIS and EDIP are regarded as only the first steps toward turning the EU — a peace project — into a defense player.
State of play: EDIP still needs to be approved by both the Council of the EU and the European Parliament before it can launch. The Hungarian presidency of the Council of the EU is pushing to reach a deal at Council level before its tenure wraps up in December. The ball can then pass to Parliament and the expectation is for the Polish presidency to finalize it before June.
EU fault lines: One of the key battles is on the so-called eligibility criteria, which determine how much EU money can go to companies outside the bloc. France wants as much EU money as possible staying within the bloc, while countries like Poland and Baltics are calling for a more pragmatic approach. The EU wants to show it’s serious about defense. But some diplomats say that if EDIP imposes criteria that are too strict in light of President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration, it could send the wrong message to Washington.
Likely progress:
— Jacopo Barigazzi
Space rules
Why it matters: The EU Space Law is aiming big. Not only does the European Commission want to start setting some basic rules of the road for an increasingly congested orbit and make sure rocket launches are as environmentally sustainable as possible, it wants the world to take note too. Space is currently lacking a clear set of regulations over who can do what and where. The likes of Elon Musk are setting their own rules by virtue of getting there first with the SpaceX Starlink mega constellation. That’s prompting the EU to draft ways to make everything a little more organized.
State of play: The law was first set to land in April, but was scrapped at the last minute amid concerns many of its measures would be too onerous to implement by industry. Since then, the Commission’s defense and space department, DG DEFIS, has been sitting on its draft but it’s expected to arrive in the first half of 2025.
EU fault lines: Expect the major debating line to be over how to stop the law from effectively throttling space startups in Europe that already complain about insufficient funding and support from capitals. Musk might not like it either, especially if compliance is linked with market access for his satellite internet.
Likely progress:
Given how far this law aims to go, it might not make it much further than a launch press conference next year.
— Joshua Posaner
Pharma reform
Why it matters: Europe’s pharmaceutical legislation is two decades old and in need of a refresh. Four pieces of legislation that govern how drugmakers bring new therapies to market in Europe have been revised down to two draft texts. Among the problems the revisions seek to solve are ending the abuse of monopoly rights for developing certain drugs, such as for rare diseases. The European Commission’s text also creates new incentives, including to improve access to novel medicines in the bloc, spur the development of new antibiotics, while also aiming to guarantee clean production techniques and quicken regulatory decisions.
State of play: The Commission published its proposal in April 2023; the European Parliament just clinched its position ahead of the European election this year. The text now lies in the hands of the Council of the European Union, where the last two presidencies have tried and failed to close the chapter on the most divisive topic of pharma incentives, and whether this legislation should be used as a tool to spur industry to launch their novel products in all EU countries or not.
EU fault lines: Countries are broadly divided by their wealth. Large, prosperous countries with productive pharma industries are fiercely defending the sector. They oppose the Commission’s plan to cut the number of monopoly years a new drug enjoys, and also oppose a two-year extension for companies that launch their novelties in all EU countries. That’s because, to date, virtually no company has ever done this. They agree with industry’s position that market access is a national competence and at the mercy of slow pricing and reimbursement decisions. Smaller and less wealthy countries — including Poland — have come out strongly in favor of curtailing monopoly rights and rewarding pharmaceutical companies that make the effort to launch their new drugs in all countries.
Likely progress:
We know Poland has drafted its own proposal on pharma incentives that fits this latter position. But it will have an uphill battle to find agreement in what Sweden tells POLITICO is a growing movement in the Council that aligns more with the pharmaceutical industry and the need to boost its global competitiveness.
— Helen Collis
Long-term EU budget
Why it matters: The EU’s seven-year €1.2 trillion budget governs spending on everything from the defense industry to performing arts. It’s one of the most politically sensitive topics in Brussels as each national government fights to allocate the most money for its own pet project. Although the amounts under negotiation are often negligible, budget talks are seen as the proxy of a leader’s power in Brussels.
State of play: We’re still in the early stages. The European Commission’s proposal for the next budget, which will have to be unanimously approved before the end of 2027, is expected to come in the second half of 2025 under the Danish presidency of the Council of the EU. But the Poles will play a key role in steering the debate.
EU fault lines: Hawkish Eastern European countries, including Poland, are keen to boost EU spending on defense. The Commission would instead like to steer the EU’s unproductive subsidies — mainly directed at farming and poorer regions — toward cutting-edge technologies to improve the bloc’s competitiveness.
The big question is how many hoops countries will need to jump through to access their cash. The Commission would like capitals to implement key economic reforms in exchange for access to their share of EU money. But countries receiving the bulk of the funding — including Poland — are no fans of this approach.
Likely progress:
Poland’s government — and its incoming Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin — have an opportunity to place their priorities at the top of the EU’s budget debate. But there’s only so much a single country can do given that negotiations take years and require unanimous approval.
— Gregorio Sorgi
Boosting personal investments
Why it matters: The previous European Commission wanted to put forward an ambitious package of laws that would boost the number of citizens across the European Union that invest, by banning kickbacks for financial advice, making firms prove that their investment products are good value for money and getting rid of dodgy marketing practices. It was beaten into submission by intense lobbying before the proposal was even published that diluted its ambition from the get-go.
State of play: The legal text is in final three-way negotiations between the Commission, European Parliament and Council of the EU. But far from being ambitious, the text’s been watered down even further by EU governments and members of the European Parliament, prompting sharp criticism from the Commission and even suggestions that it could withdraw the proposal. Now, the EU’s markets and insurance regulators are asking for the law to be updated — to avoid closing negotiations and then having to immediately start them again for future revisions.
EU fault lines: Countries with strong asset management industries, or a skepticism of more EU control over how the rules are enforced, largely hate the proposal. They’re winning in negotiations so far. But the question now is how the Commission’s push to create a “Savings and Investments Union” — a major political goal for the coming five-year mandate — will affect the rules. Will the EU executive change the text, taking negotiations back to the drawing board? Or will the Swiss-cheese version be approved, only to be revised again straight away?
Likely progress:
At this point, anything’s possible. But the same issue will keep plaguing negotiations, no matter what happens: The EU wants people to invest more, but governments are unwilling to budge on pet issues, which could actually unlock progress, like creating simple EU investment products with tax breaks, or setting up a single supervision regime for nonbanks. The real question is who will blink first.
— Kathryn Carlson
Financial data transparency
Why it matters: The draft Framework for Financial Data Access (FIDA) law aims to make it easier for financial firms’ customers to control and share their data coming from a wide range of economic activities and products. It’s a turning point for the financial industry, with the proposal obliging insurers, banks and investment funds to share the data they hold in the name of the open finance principle. That’s also quite a complicated goal to achieve, given the fragmentation of the European Union’s market and the new technological requirements to apply the rules.
State of play: The European Parliament’s economy committee tabled a report on the law last spring and is voting on whether to start talks with governments this week. The negotiations among governments were slower, but the end is now very close. As a top DG FISMA official said recently: “FIDA is not an easy file, I guess they can quite quickly resume the work, possibly starting trilogues … in December this year.”
EU fault lines: A majority of countries obtained to allow firms to access EU citizens’ data only if they are established in the bloc, winning over the ones supporting a more open regime. But that remains a controversial point. Industry groups lobbied hard to have a gradual phase-in. The question is how gradual it will be in the end. Governments also didn’t want to include an obligation to make data on the pension rights scheme shareable, which is quite telling for dreams of a capital markets union.
Likely progress:
A step forward is certain, with everyone awaiting the negotiations between EU lawmakers and governments to kick off.
— Giovanna Faggionato
EU accession talks for Ukraine and Moldova
Why it matters: The two former Soviet republics applied for European Union membership shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The process is crucial to Europe’s security as Ukraine resists Russia’s invasion and the bloc grapples with the impact of the war, a more turbulent security landscape in the years ahead, and Russia’s influence among member countries.
State of play: Poland’s deputy foreign minister, Marek Prawda, recently said the EU would “swiftly” move forward with an initial phase of accession talks for both countries during Poland’s rotating Council presidency, and that the EU would open two areas of negotiation: on the rule of law and external relations. In a referendum on EU accession in October, Moldovans narrowly voted in favor of changing their country’s constitution to include the strategic goal of membership of the bloc. Ukraine has completed the screening of the first group of negotiating chapters.
EU fault lines: Although there were some small steps forward in recent months, there’s been a sense of political reluctance on the part of Hungary as the process has accelerated. However, the European Commission issued a statement in October that it’s ready to open the first round of negotiations with Ukraine in early 2025 if the necessary conditions are met.
Likely progress:
Warsaw is one of Ukraine’s main allies in the EU and Poland was among the 12 member countries that called for an urgent start to EU accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova. Nevertheless, countries with ties to Moscow, such as Hungary or Slovakia, could still stall the negotiation process.
— Csongor Körömi
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