Day 1 of the Israel-Hezbollah Cease-Fire in Lebanon

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at what a cease-fire in Lebanon means for Gaza, the International Criminal Court seeking an arrest warrant for Myanmar’s leader, and allegations of Pakistani government forces firing live ammunition at protesters.

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Truce in Lebanon

A cease-fire in Lebanon between Israeli and Hezbollah forces went into effect at 4 a.m. local time on Wednesday, ending the bloodiest conflict between the two sides in decades. “This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities,” U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday after Israel’s security cabinet approved the deal in a 10-1 vote. “What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed to threaten the security of Israel again.”

Already, displaced civilians on both sides of the border have begun to return home. During the 13-month conflict, heavy bombardments forced more than 1 million Lebanese and around 60,000 Israelis to flee their communities, with forced evacuation orders in Lebanon that followed Israel’s Oct. 1 incursion worsening displacements.

On Wednesday, an Israeli security official said Israeli citizens could decide when they wish to return home, with timelines varying depending on the community’s proximity to the border. At the same time, Israeli officials urged residents of southern Lebanese villages to delay their travel until further notice, as Israeli forces are still in Lebanese territory.

Israel has 60 days to completely withdraw from Lebanon, to be replaced by regular Lebanese army troops and United Nations peacekeepers tasked with overseeing the cease-fire and establishing a buffer zone. Hezbollah also has 60 days to dismantle its weapons infrastructure in southern Lebanon and pull back to the Litani River. Lebanon’s army said on Wednesday that it is preparing to deploy more troops to areas in the country’s south, and the Lebanese government announced that public schools will reopen next Monday.

Diplomatic efforts in Israel’s multifront conflict now turn to the war in Gaza, where Israeli forces continue to battle Hamas militants backed by Iran. A senior Biden administration official told reporters on Tuesday that Washington is disappointed in Hamas’s continued lack of seriousness toward negotiations. However, following the Hezbollah truce, a Hamas official told Agence France-Presse that the militant group is “ready for a cease-fire agreement and a serious deal to exchange prisoners.”

Hamas spokesperson Sami Abu Zuhri blamed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday for past failures to reach a deal, telling Reuters that where Hamas has shown “flexibility” in negotiations, Netanyahu has remained staunch in his demands and has even purposefully foiled talks to maintain political power. Netanyahu has repeatedly called for total victory over Hamas; the release of all Israeli hostages held in Gaza; and Israeli control of the Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow strip of territory along Gaza’s border with Egypt that Netanyahu says is used to smuggle illicit weapons into the territory.

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Washington would start its renewed push for a Gaza cease-fire on Wednesday. Mediators in Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar have all expressed support for this effort.

Today’s Most Read

What We’re Following

Crimes against Rohingya. International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Karim Khan announced on Wednesday that he plans to seek an arrest warrant for Myanmar’s military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, for crimes against humanity concerning his alleged involvement in the persecution of Myanmar’s Muslim Rohingya minority. Min Aung Hlaing is accused of bearing criminal responsibility for the forced deportation of Rohingya beginning in August 2017, during which around 700,000 members of the minority group fled to Bangladesh amid widespread reports of rape, arson, and massacres committed by military forces under Min Aung Hlaing’s command.

The 2017 crisis has been the subject of rights denouncements in the past. In November 2019, Gambia filed a case at the International Court of Justice accusing Myanmar of violating the Genocide Convention for the treatment of the Rohingya. And in March 2022, the U.S. State Department formally declared that atrocities and ethnic cleansing by the ruling junta constituted a genocide.

Myanmar is not a member of the ICC, and the country’s junta said it does not recognize the court’s statements. A three-judge panel will now decide whether there are “reasonable grounds” to issue a warrant. The decision is likely to take several months. If Min Aung Hlaing is issued an arrest warrant, then he will join Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin as other world leaders currently facing ICC warrants.

Shoot-to-kill orders. Pakistani opposition figures accused government security forces on Wednesday of firing live rounds at thousands of protesters seeking the release of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Islamabad police chief Ali Rizvi denied the use of such tactics by either local police or paramilitary forces. However, the Pakistani government issued shoot-to-kill orders on Tuesday to try to stop the demonstrators from reaching the city’s Red Zone, which houses several major government buildings, and Khan’s aides have cited “hundreds” of people with gunshot wounds, though they did not provide immediate evidence.

Violent clashes between Khan’s supporters and Pakistani police began last Sunday, when demonstrators began marching toward the capital to demand Khan’s freedom. They argued that the more than 150 criminal charges that Khan faces are politically motivated and that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s ruling coalition rigged this year’s general election in his favor. Khan remains a popular opposition figure despite being ousted in April 2022.

On Wednesday, Pakistani authorities ended a four-day lockdown of Islamabad and announced the arrest of nearly 1,000 demonstrators. At least six people were killed during the protests. Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party said in a statement on Wednesday that the protests had been “temporarily suspended” due to the “government’s brutality.”

Historic vote. Namibia held presidential and parliamentary elections on Wednesday in what is expected to be a tough race for the ruling SWAPO Party, which has held power since the country gained independence in 1990. Rising discontent among young voters over high rates of unemployment, inequality, and government corruption could push SWAPO and its presidential candidate, Vice President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, out of office.

More than 40 percent of Namibia’s 1.4 million registered voters are under age 36. SWAPO has tried various tactics to woo the youth vote, from hiring pop singers to perform at its rallies to picking younger candidates for parliamentary seats. But the African nation’s severe housing shortage may be enough to sour SWAPO’s appeal.

Initial results are expected within five days. No matter the outcome, this will be a historic election for Namibia, as either SWAPO will maintain power by installing Namibia’s first female president or the opposition will take office for the first time in the country’s history.

Odds and Ends

Phone scammers may be initially excited to connect with Daisy Harris, a British grandma who loves birds, enjoys knitting, and just can’t seem to understand this newfangled internet contraption. But what may appear as an easy mark will eventually have scammers scratching their heads. This month, the British phone company O2 unveiled an artificial intelligence granny whose sole purpose is to keep fraudsters on the phone and away from potential human victims. Developers hope that Harris, not being hampered by needs such as sleeping, can help curb the immense number of scam calls that target older adults.

The post Day 1 of the Israel-Hezbollah Cease-Fire in Lebanon appeared first on Foreign Policy.