‘s workforce could shrink by 10% by 2040 without “substantial” immigration, according to a study commissioned by the Bertelsmann Foundation.
The study found that, without an influx of around 288,000 per year, the size of the could drop from around 46.4 million currently to 41.9 million in 2040. By 2060, it could drop as low as 35.1 million.
“The departure of the baby boomers from the labor market presents big challenges,” said Susanne Schultz, migration expert at Bertelsmann.
Schultz said that Germany’s domestic potential needs to be further developed and increased, but also that “this demographic shift demands immigration.”
A second projection model, based on more pessimistic data, calculated that as many as 368,000 immigrant workers could be required annually until 2040, dropping to 270,000 per year after that until 2060.
Are Germany’s labor migration reforms enough?
With labor migration currently lagging below required levels, Schultz said that barriers needed to be removed and conditions for immigrants improved.
were reformed in 2023 to make it easier and more attractive for qualified foreign workers to take up positions in Germany, with Interior Minister promising “the most modern immigration law in the world.”
Releasing its new study, however, the Bertelsmann Foundation said those foreign workers wouldn’t come “without a more welcoming culture throughout local authorities and businesses,” and without “the perspective of staying long-term.”
‘I want equality but I won’t beg for it’
One example cited by Germany’s dpa news agency offers food for thought.
The outlet quoted a who fled the civil war in his native country in 2016 aged 21 before graduating from universities in western Germany with bachelors and masters degrees.
Now an IT specialist, trained in Germany, he is moving to .
“I gave my very best here in order to be considered an equal but I felt discrimination and rejection,” he said, recounting denigration in social circles and part-time work while waiting for an acceptable job offer which never came.
“I want to be treated as an equal,” he said. “But I’m not going to beg for it.”
For Bertelsmann’s Schultz, the case is “unfortunately not an anomaly. Germany can’t afford that and must become more attractive.”
How will a shrinking workforce affect Germany’s regions?
According to the analysis, the effect of a shrinking workforce and the need for greater immigration to plug the gaps would be felt differently across Germany.
While the average 10% contraction would likely apply to the country’s most populous state, , demographically weaker states such as and in the former , and the small state of on the French border, would be even harder hit.
Even traditionally well-off southern regions like and wouldn’t be completely unscathed.
Major cities like and , which already benefit from high levels of immigration, would be less negatively impacted, according to the study.
mf/nm (dpa, AFP)
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