Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at the specifics of a 60-day truce proposal between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the killing of a rabbi in the United Arab Emirates, and an emergency NATO-Ukraine session to address Russian threats.
‘We Think We Have a Deal’
The Israeli cabinet will vote on a cease-fire proposal with Lebanese militant group Hezbollah on Tuesday after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly approved the agreement “in principle” late Sunday. The U.S.-backed deal would establish a 60-day truce, entail the Israeli military and Hezbollah’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and deploy regular Lebanese Army troops to the border region within two months, effectively creating a buffer zone south of the Litani River.
Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at the specifics of a 60-day truce proposal between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the killing of a rabbi in the United Arab Emirates, and an emergency NATO-Ukraine session to address Russian threats.
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‘We Think We Have a Deal’
The Israeli cabinet will vote on a cease-fire proposal with Lebanese militant group Hezbollah on Tuesday after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly approved the agreement “in principle” late Sunday. The U.S.-backed deal would establish a 60-day truce, entail the Israeli military and Hezbollah’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and deploy regular Lebanese Army troops to the border region within two months, effectively creating a buffer zone south of the Litani River.
An accord could be announced “within hours,” said Israeli Ambassador to the United States Mike Herzog. Details are still being negotiated; however, Lebanese Deputy Parliament Speaker Elias Bou Saab told Reuters that there are “no serious obstacles” left to begin implementation.
Diplomacy has largely focused on restoring United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war by establishing the 75-mile Blue Line, a de facto border between Israel and Lebanon. The negotiating parties hope that such an agreement would allow hundreds of thousands of citizens on both sides to return to their homes after heavy bombardments forced them to flee.
Following pressure from Netanyahu to cement Israel’s right to self-defense in the cease-fire deal, the U.S. proposal reportedly agreed to give Israel assurances that include the right to military action against imminent threats and to disrupt the establishment of a Hezbollah presence or heavy weapons smuggling near the border.
U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to announce the cease-fire on Tuesday if approved. “We think we have a deal,” a U.S. official told Axios, adding, “We are on the goal line, but we haven’t passed it yet. The Israeli cabinet needs to approve the deal on Tuesday, and something can always go wrong until then.”
Despite cease-fire talks inching to a close, cross-border strikes have continued between Israeli and Hezbollah forces—and some experts worry that one wrong move could upend the dialogue. On Saturday, an Israeli strike on Beirut killed more than 29 people and injured more than 65 others. Three Israeli defense officials told the New York Times that the attack aimed to assassinate a top Hezbollah military commander, Mohammad Haidar, though one official said Haidar was not killed.
In response, Hezbollah fired around 250 projectiles into Israel on Sunday in one of the largest aerial attacks against the country in the past year. On Monday, Hezbollah launched another 40 rockets at northern Israel. More than 3,700 Lebanese have been killed and another 15,000 wounded since fighting between Israel and Hezbollah resurged with the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict last October.
“We have a real opportunity to bring conflict to an end. The window is now,” U.S. special envoy to the Middle East Amos Hochstein said last week. But a truce deal, he said, is ultimately “the decision of the parties” involved.
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The World This Week
Tuesday, Nov. 26: The NATO-Ukraine Council meets to discuss Russia’s new hypersonic ballistic missile.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov in Berlin.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte visits Athens.
Canada’s Nova Scotia province holds snap elections.
Wednesday, Nov. 27: Namibia holds a general election.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson hosts leaders from the Nordic and Baltic countries.
Italy concludes hosting the Mediterranean Dialogue.
Thursday, Nov. 28: Kazakhstan hosts the Collective Security Treaty Organization summit.
Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu begins a two-day visit to Paris.
Friday, Nov. 29: Ireland holds a general election.
Saturday, Nov. 30: Iceland holds early parliamentary elections.
Sunday, Dec. 1: Romania holds legislative elections.
Monday, Dec. 2: Netanyahu testifies over allegations of fraud, breach of trust, and bribery.
Biden begins a three-day trip to Angola.
What We’re Following
‘Antisemitic act of terror.’ Authorities in the United Arab Emirates arrested three Uzbek nationals on Monday in connection with the killing of an Israeli Moldovan rabbi. The body of Zvi Kogan, 28, was discovered on Sunday after Kogan went missing in Dubai last Thursday. Kogan was the Abu Dhabi representative for Chabad Lubavitch, a worldwide religious movement of Hasidic Judaism. The UAE Interior Ministry offered no motive for Kogan’s death, but an Israeli Foreign Ministry official said he was killed “because of who he was.”
“The murder of an Israeli citizen and Chabad emissary is a heinous, antisemitic act of terror,” Netanyahu said on Sunday, vowing to use all means necessary to bring the suspects to justice. Antisemitic attacks have risen since the Israel-Hamas war broke out last year, including a recent assault against hundreds of Israeli soccer fans in Amsterdam this month.
At the same time, an Israeli Foreign Ministry official said Kogan’s death would not sour bilateral ties with the UAE. “If anything, we will only utilize this event to further and deepen our cooperation with our Emirati colleagues,” the Israeli official said. Israel and the UAE established formal diplomatic relations in 2020 with the signing of the Abraham Accords.
Missile talks. NATO and Ukraine will hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday to discuss Russia’s recent use of a new hypersonic ballistic missile. Moscow launched the experimental medium-range Oreshnik weapon at a Ukrainian military facility in Dnipro last Thursday in response to the United States and United Kingdom authorizing Kyiv to use their long-range missile systems against limited targets deep inside Russia.
The conflict is “entering a decisive phase,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said last Friday. Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that Western air defense systems cannot stop the Oreshnik weapon, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv is already working on new systems to counter it.
These escalations follow Putin formally lowering the Kremlin’s nuclear threshold last week in a direct warning to NATO members. Under the new policy, any aggression against Moscow by a member of a military alliance will be viewed as “an aggression by the entire bloc.”
Climate financing. The U.N. Climate Change Conference (known as COP29) adopted a $300 billion yearly finance target in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Sunday to help developing nations address climate change.
“Developing nations are responsible for a disproportionately small share of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet they face the brunt of climate change’s impacts, often with fewer tools to cope,” FP’s Christina Lu reported. Sunday’s deal marks a major increase from a previous commitment of $100 billion annually by 2020, and it lays the groundwork for next year’s summit, to be held in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest.
Although some delegates applauded the agreement, many countries said the policy did not go far enough. “I regret to say that this document is nothing more than an optical illusion,” Indian delegation representative Chandni Raina said. Despite delegates increasing financing by $200 billion annually, some economists argue that the target does not consider inflation and falls far below what developing countries need, which they calculate to be at $1.3 trillion per year.
The deal also failed to detail how countries will act on last year’s pledge to transition away from fossil fuels and triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.
Odds and Ends
Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte is not taking any chances. On Saturday, she announced that she has contracted an assassin to kill Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos “Bongbong” Jr., his wife, and House of Representatives Speaker Martin Romualdez if she herself is killed.
Her lawyer has since tried to walk back her comments as simple concern for an unspecified threat to Duterte’s life, but authorities have already referred the situation to an elite presidential guard “for immediate proper action” while also boosting Bongbong’s security. On Monday, the president described Duterte’s threat as a criminal plot and vowed to fight back.
The post Israel, Hezbollah Prepare to Approve a Cease-Fire Deal appeared first on Foreign Policy.
