U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will enter office for his second term at a time when the Philippines badly needs reliable support from Washington.
Last week, China reacted angrily to two new Philippine laws that demarcate its maritime claims in the South China Sea, which have led to a series of clashes this year between coast guard and naval forces from both countries.
After President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed the laws, which define the Philippines’ sea and air lanes in its maritime territory, Beijing said the legislation “severely infringes” on its sovereignty and escalated naval patrols in the contested waters. China claims almost the entire South China Sea, despite a 2016 ruling by an international arbitral tribunal that rejected its sweeping claims.
The tension has left Manila in need of support from Washington—and although Trump’s isolationist, transactional approach to foreign policy could see his administration pull away from global conflicts, there’s little reason to believe he will turn from the Philippines.
The outgoing Biden administration placed the Philippines at the center of its strategy to contain China. Last year, the United States and Philippines announced that four additional Philippine military bases would be developed for use by U.S. forces under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). Three of those bases are in the northern part of the country, adjacent to Taiwan, with the other at the southern tip of Palawan, a southwestern island facing the South China Sea.
U.S. and Philippine forces conducted their largest joint military exercises this year at multiple sites throughout the country, including the four new bases. The United States has also invested heavily in the bases themselves after already committing more than $80 million to five existing bases it’s using via the EDCA.
At April’s inaugural United States-Philippines-Japan trilateral summit, the three countries announced the Luzon Economic Corridor, which will see them invest millions in infrastructure projects like rail, ports modernization, and agribusiness.
Yet despite Trump’s tendencies to revise existing deals and make other countries pay for U.S. military assistance, Philippine officials appear confident that he will leave deals with Manila alone.
Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said last week that he does not believe Trump will demand the Philippines pay for its protection, as the president-elect has said he will expect of Taiwan, and Manila seems to believe the U.S. funding of EDCA bases will stay on track.
“The expanded EDCA sites in northern Luzon and recent investment by the United States served as a Biden legacy,” said Chester Cabalza, founder of International Development and Security Cooperation, a Manila-based think tank. “But this will not hinder Trump from rethinking transforming the aerial and naval bases for economic growth to counter China’s giant sphere of economic influence in the region.”
The Philippines already pays for much of the military hardware it obtains from Washington, and the United States has shown no indication that it will withdraw the mid-range Typhon missiles it stationed there this year despite Chinese objections.
Trump would also be less likely to abandon the Philippines as there is a broad, growing regional commitment to support Manila’s territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea. Japan forged its own defense agreement with the Philippines earlier this year, and the Marcos administration has courted alliances and trade deals with Washington’s traditional allies after his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, veered toward Beijing and alienated countries critical of his administration’s chronic human rights abuses.
“Asian and European powers are queuing to forge defense agreements with the Philippines in hope of fostering better defense and economic ties,” Cabalza said. “Manila is not burdened to leave the alliance since its economic trajectories are in place even without U.S. trade support.”
U.S. commitments to the Luzon Economic Corridor are also expected to remain in place, Frederick Go, special assistant to the president for investment and economic affairs, told local media last week.
During Trump’s visit to Manila in 2017, he described the archipelago as “the most prime piece of real estate from a military standpoint.” This signaled a knowledge that “the importance of the Philippines lies not in trade but in its strategic geography,” said Jeffrey Ordaniel, an assistant professor of international security at Tokyo International University and the director for maritime security at Pacific Forum.
Ordaniel noted that Trump’s first term yielded a clear policy shift favoring Philippine interests. Washington clarified in 2019 that its mutual defense treaty with Manila covers the South China Sea, including Philippine troops in the area—something former U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration had hesitated to do. In 2020, the United States explicitly aligned its stance on Philippine sovereignty in the South China Sea with the 2016 arbitral court ruling.
“These were significant changes in U.S. policy, likely involving some degree of risk-taking on Washington’s part,” Ordaniel said. “I cannot recall any policy shifts of similar magnitude under the Biden administration.”
Trump’s cabinet picks of Sen. Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Rep. Mike Waltz as national security advisor represent “a continuation of how Washington sees its alliance with Manila,” he added.
While this all bodes well for bilateral security ties, other actions taken by the Trump administration could leave lasting damage to the Philippines.
Jose Manuel Romualdez, the Philippine ambassador to the United States, recently advised the approximately 370,000 undocumented Filipinos living in the United States to “leave voluntarily,” ahead of fears they could be deported. Many Filipino families rely on remittances from foreign workers, and the mass deportation of undocumented Filipinos would create an economic shock for their families.
The Philippines is also among the world’s most vulnerable countries to the human-caused climate crisis, which Trump has repeatedly denied and called a “hoax.”
In a recent three-week period, five major storms — four of which were typhoons — hit the country, killing at least 160 people and displacing 9 million. As oceans continue to get warmer, the severity of typhoons will keep increasing, leaving the island nation in a perpetual cycle of coping with disasters.
Trump has pledged to drill for more oil and gas and dismantle environmental regulations. During a campaign rally in Milwaukee, he said, “The ocean will rise … Who the hell cares?”
Current projections show that the Philippines is experiencing sea level rise three to four times faster than the global average, with 9 million people living in the Philippines expected to be underwater by 2100—and the number of people could grow if global emissions do not decrease. Around 60 percent of the country’s population lives in threatened coastal zones, according to a 2024 government report.
“Trump’s win is a loss to many, and in particular to the climate movement across the globe,” youth climate activists John Carl Cabangon and Marty Apuhin wrote after his recent election victory. “The effects of sea level rise, extreme heat, and drought compound the suffering of the Filipino people.” The pair also noted the U.S. military’s growing carbon footprint; the U.S. Defense Department listed its own emissions as 51 million metric tons in 2021, which was equivalent to that of the entire country of Sweden.
In July, the Philippines was chosen to be the host country for the board of the United Nations loss and damage fund. Created during COP27 in 2022, the fund is a measure to help countries recover from the effects of global warming, which has faced steadfast U.S. opposition for years.
Manila might have a friend in Trump when it comes to defense against China, but when facing the threat of the climate crisis, the Trump administration will be anything but an ally.
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