By Nosmot Gbadamosi
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief.
The highlights this week: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Nigeria, Russia vetoes a U.N. Security Council resolution on Sudan, and Mozambique’s protests continue.
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Violence Rises in Ghana’s Border Towns
Ghana will elect a new president on Dec. 7 amid increased concerns by security experts that its northern border regions are playing host to armed groups.
Incumbent President Nana Akufo-Addo, first elected in 2016, will step down having served two terms, the constitutional limit in Ghana. The main contenders out of 12 candidates is current Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia and former President John Mahama.
The immediate task for Akufo-Addo’s successor is tackling rising insecurity in Ghana’s far north.
Bawku, a market town less than an hour’s drive from Burkina Faso and Togo, has seen ongoing ethnic conflict since 2021 between the Kusasi and Mamprusi over who controls the chieftaincy. Analysts worry the clashes could help Islamist groups in Burkina Faso recruit young men. At least 25 people have died in attacks involving armed groups over the past month, prompting authorities to renew a curfew on the area last week.
Ghana shares a 372-mile border with Burkina Faso, a country experiencing insurgencies linked to JNIM and other armed groups affiliated with al Qaeda and the Islamic State that have displaced some 1.7 million people. More than 15,000 Burkinabe have fled into northern Ghana since 2022, but the Ghanaian government has often expelled ethnic Fulani asylum-seekers, who are scapegoated as supporters of Islamist terrorism.
Insecurity has also worsened in recent months, with reported deaths from clashes between the military and residents of northern Ghana.
“Jihadist insurgents could appeal to other groups in northern Ghana affected by conflicts over local chieftaincies,” global strategic advisory firm Oxford Analytica warned in 2022.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, during a three-nation tour of West Africa last March, announced $100 million in security aid to help Ghana and four other border nations—Benin, Guinea, Ivory Coast, and Togo—fight extremist spillover from the Sahel. The European Union has also provided military assistance this year to boost the country’s defense against jihadi radicalization.
I have frequently reported from Ghana’s northern regions over the past few years and observed an alarming spike in criminality and violence within remote border communities. Yet the young men whom I talked to said they engaged in criminal networks to smuggle gold, wood, weapons, and machinery via Burkina Faso and Togo because they were jobless and poor. Their motives were financial, not ideological. Indeed, hunger was the overriding factor. Ghana’s northern regions suffer from the same armed banditry that has plagued Nigeria’s north.
“Unless the militarized approach is replaced with one with an emphasis on mitigating the social exclusion that has rendered communities vulnerable to violent extremist recruitment, the security situation will continue to deteriorate,” R. Maxwell Bone argued in Foreign Policy recently.
Violence in nearby Burkina Faso has also created a proliferation of guns in Ghana’s northern regions.
Ghanaian authorities have turned a blind eye to Burkinabe insurgents crossing over to smuggle food, fuel, and weapons across the border, according to a Reuters investigation rejected by Ghanaian authorities.
“Residents of border communities still complain that they only see security forces on weekly market days, when they harass rural residents traveling into towns,” Eliasu Tanko and James Courtright reported in Foreign Policy in May.
Yet the threat of spillover insurgency from Burkina Faso has obscured internal threats in northern regions over land and resources. Ghana’s north is suffering the effects of climate change, with prolonged droughts pushing communities toward hunger. Fulani communities have previously been blamed for disputes over land use, while armed gangs have strengthened. “Unresolved conflicts in northern Ghana pose a significant risk of spillover effects that could destabilise surrounding regions, particularly during an election period,” local outlet Pulse Ghana warned recently.
Ghana has one of the most robust democracies in West Africa, with a record of peaceful transitions between administrations. But the Ghanaian government has actively sought out international military aid in dealing with possible insurgent infiltration in the north without tackling the primary drivers of violence in northern towns—abject poverty, state collusion in illegal trafficking, and discrimination against Fulanis.
One of the 12 hopefuls vying for the presidency may have to deal with the unintended consequences of a militarized approach in the north during his or her term in office.
Wednesday, Nov. 20: The Southern African Development Community holds a summit on the postelection unrest in Mozambique.
Thursday, Nov. 21: Kenyan President William Ruto gives a state-of-the-nation address.
Saturday, Nov. 23, to Monday, Nov. 25: The African Economic Conference takes place in Gaborone, Botswana.
U.N. spat on Sudan. Russia vetoed a United Nations resolution on Monday drafted by the United Kingdom and Sierra Leone calling for an immediate cease-fire between Sudan’s warring generals. All the other 14 member nations on the Security Council, including China, which has been a strong Russian ally, supported the resolution. Russian Deputy U.N. Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy told the council that Sudan’s government alone should be responsible for what happens in Sudan. British Foreign Secretary David Lammy called Russia’s veto a “disgrace.” Moscow has been accused of profiting from Sudan’s war by striking gold mining deals to sustain its war in Ukraine.
Gabon’s new constitution. More than 91 percent of voters in Gabon approved a new draft constitution on Saturday that limits dynastic rule and imposes a seven-year presidential term, renewable only once, replacing what had been unlimited five-year terms. Turnout was an estimated 53.5 percent. Gen. Brice Oligui Nguema overthrew his cousin Ali Bongo in a coup last August, and critics have suggested the referendum was designed to allow Nguema to run in democratic elections.
Mozambique protests. Rights groups have called on the Southern African Development Community to intervene in ongoing violence against protesters in Mozambique. The bloc is holding an emergency summit on Nov. 20. At least 50 protesters have been shot dead by police since the start of demonstrations last month against the ruling Frelimo party, accused of rigging the Oct. 9 presidential election to maintain its 49 years in power. Opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane has claimed he won the election.
Mali tax dispute. Australia’s Resolute Mining has agreed to pay $160 million to resolve a tax dispute after the Malian government detained three of the gold producer’s employees, including chief executive Terence Holohan. The three had arrived in the capital of Bamako for meetings with Mali’s tax and mining authorities in early November. Four employees of Canada’s Barrick Gold were detained in September until the company agreed to pay $85 million in back taxes.
Canada’s Allied Gold and B2Gold have also agreed to pay about $116 million and $204 million, respectively, to the state. Mali’s military ruler, who ousted unpopular President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita in 2020, enjoys wide support from Malians, who have dealt with decades of unaccountable governments, poverty, and violence. An 11-year U.N. peacekeeping mission in Mali ended on Friday.
Modi visits Nigeria. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the weekend as part of a three-nation tour that included Brazil for the G-20 summit as well as Guyana. Modi’s visit to the capital of Abuja was his first-ever trip to West Africa, as the two nations renewed what they called a “strategic partnership.” India is Nigeria’s third-largest trading partner, after China and the Netherlands, and its biggest export market. Both nations have historically shared close trade ties and have pushed for permanent representation on the U.N. Security Council.
Musk expands African footprint. Chad has approved Elon Musk’s Starlink to operate in the country after three years of negotiations. The satellite broadband system currently operates in about a dozen African nations, including Sudan, Nigeria, and Kenya, but faces criticism from state providers of unfair competition since it employs no local staff. Kenya’s biggest telecoms firm Safaricom urged regulators to consider requiring international firms such as Starlink to invest and employ locals.
Trump slumps rand. South Africa’s rand has fallen against the dollar since Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5. Market reactions have wiped out almost a year’s gains boosted by a new coalition government that aims to drive business investments.
FP’s Most Read This Week
Kenya’s anti-Ruto protests. Some of the activists arrested following protests in June against Kenyan President William Ruto’s finance bill are still missing, but those abductions will not stop Kenyans from mobilizing, Wangui Kimari argues in Africa Is a Country. “Certainly, we are back to a place where we feel there is a new dawn, and perhaps one we have never felt as strongly about,” she writes.
Senegal’s iconic art fair. The Biennale of Contemporary African Art is currently running until Dec. 7 in Dakar, Senegal. The United States is the guest of honor, with seven Black Americans exploring the legacy of slavery in their exhibits. Originally scheduled for May, the Biennale was postponed following unrest over the country’s delayed presidential election. In Art Basel, the show’s curator Salimata Diop picks the artists to watch at this year’s edition.
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