Representative Mike Lawler, one of the nation’s most endangered Republican incumbents, won a second term, according to The Associated Press, holding onto a suburban New York district that is typically tilted toward Democrats.
His victory over Mondaire Jones, a former Democratic congressman, defied mathematical probability, and it buoyed Republicans’ hopes of holding the House majority.
By almost every measure, the race should have favored Democrats. The district, including the affluent suburbs of Westchester County, voted for President Biden by 10 points in 2020. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly 80,000. And Democrats spent nearly $20 million in ads attacking Mr. Lawler as a pro-Trump extremist.
The Republican weathered all of it, including a report by The New York Times that he wore blackface as part of a Michael Jackson Halloween costume in 2006. Mr. Lawler presented himself as an adult in a party with few of them and a check on New York’s Democratic leaders.
“Here in New York, we have seen disastrous consequences from one party rule,” Mr. Lawler said in a victory speech Tuesday night.
He added: “I will continue to be a voice of common sense and stand up against the stupidity that we see at every level of government.”
The race was perhaps the most closely watched of a half-dozen swing contests in New York on Tuesday expected to play an outsize role in the national battle for the House. Together, the two parties drained nearly $35 million into it.
The win not only cements Mr. Lawler’s status as a leading moderate voice in his party but will also add fuel to speculation about a possible run for governor in 2026. Mr. Lawler, a former political consultant, has said publicly he is considering seeking higher office.
Mr. Lawler, 38, burst onto the national political scene in 2022 when he unexpectedly defeated Sean Patrick Maloney, the chairman of House Democrats’ campaign arm. This time, Democrats were confident they had the resources and the candidate to defeat him.
But the Republican outmaneuvered them at nearly every turn. Mr. Lawler successfully courted key labor unions and the district’s large ultra-Orthodox Jewish community, backbones of many Democratic campaigns. He broke with conservatives during spending and debt-limit fights, getting even Mr. Biden to declare “he’s not one of these MAGA Republicans.”
The unusual crossover support — and Mr. Lawler’s ubiquity on cable news shows — helped when Mr. Jones began attacking him as an extreme opponent of abortion rights and an ally of Mr. Trump.
Mr. Jones’s own missteps also contributed to his loss. He insulted Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York, started fights with former progressive allies and labor leaders and was weighed down by far-left positions he had espoused in earlier races.
Mr. Lawler gleefully capitalized on all of it to portray Mr. Jones as out of touch with suburban values. One of the most potent Republican attacks included video of Mr. Jones in 2020 endorsing defunding the police.
“Can you believe this guy?” Mr. Lawler said in the ad. “He’s nuts.”
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