In 2020, former President Donald Trump posted on Twitter, declaring himself poised to win the election as early East Coast results showed him with a significant lead. However, that initial advantage soon narrowed and then disappeared as more mail-in and absentee ballots—typically favoring Democratic candidates—were counted.
This sequence of events highlighted what analysts call the “red mirage” and “blue mirage,” where early leads for candidates from certain parties can be misleading due to the order in which different types of ballots are processed and counted in each state.
Due to increased mail-in voting during the COVID-19 pandemic, the “red mirage” was a major factor in the 2020 race, but it may be less prominent in 2024 with the pandemic over. However, understanding these mirages remains essential to avoid drawing premature conclusions about the election outcome.
What is a Red Mirage?
The “red mirage” phenomenon refers to early returns skewed in favor of Republican candidates, especially in states that count in-person votes first. Republican voters historically tend to vote in person on Election Day, and these votes are often reported first, creating a temporary Republican lead. This pattern was evident in both 2020 and 2022, where early Republican leads in several battleground states shifted as mail-in and absentee ballots were added to the count.
This effect was particularly visible in the 2020 presidential election, where Trump initially appeared to lead in several key states before being overtaken by Joe Biden as mail-in votes were tallied. Trump seized on this shift to claim, without evidence, that the election was “stolen.” Analysts suggest the red mirage effect could fuel similar claims this year if vote tallies shift against Trump as mail ballots are counted.
In states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the red mirage effect is especially prominent due to their delayed counting of mail-in ballots, which often favor Democratic candidates.
What is a Blue Mirage?
Conversely, the “blue mirage” effect occurs when states count mail-in or absentee ballots first, giving Democratic candidates an early, temporary lead. This was particularly visible in North Carolina during the 2020 election, where initial results favored Biden until in-person votes were counted, narrowing the race by the end of the night.
In states like Georgia and Arizona, which begin counting mail-in ballots before Election Day votes, this effect can cause an apparent Democratic lead early on, which then diminishes as more Republican-leaning ballots are counted later in the evening.
Who is Winning in U.S. Election Results?
With these mirage effects in play, early reporting on the 2024 election could be misleading regarding who is winning.
Polls close at various times depending on the state, generally between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. local time. Precincts typically start reporting results shortly after, although final outcomes may take hours or even days.
CNN projected that Trump has won Kentucky, Indiana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina, Texas, Wyoming, South Dakota, North Dakota, Louisiana, West Virginia, Utah, Kansas, Iowa, Mississippi, and Montana. Meanwhile, Harris has secured Vermont, Maryland, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Rhode Island, Illinois, Colorado, New York, California, and Massachusetts.
Before the election, Harris held a modest lead over Trump in three out of four of the most reliable national polling averages reviewed by Newsweek. Polling aggregator 538 showed her leading by 1.2 points, with 48 percent of likely voters supporting her compared to Trump’s 46.8 percent. The RealClearPolitics average alone showed Trump slightly ahead, with 48.4 percent compared to Harris’s 48.1 percent—a narrow 0.3-point advantage.
However, while Harris led in national polls, like Hillary Clinton in 2016, she has struggled to secure a win in the Electoral College.
As of Monday, 538’s projections gave Trump a 52 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, with Harris at 48 percent. The updated model reflected several late polls favoring Trump in crucial swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Nate Silver‘s Silver Bulletin also placed Trump in the lead, with a 53.8 percent chance compared to Harris’s 46.2 percent.
What Happened in the 2020 Election?
The 2020 election provided a vivid example of both red and blue mirage effects in action. During that election, Democratic candidates overwhelmingly favored mail-in voting due to COVID-19 concerns. Early on election night, Trump led in states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Wisconsin based on in-person ballots cast on Election Day. However, Biden’s numbers increased as mail-in ballots were counted. In Pennsylvania, Biden initially trailed Trump by over 600,000 votes on election night but ultimately won the state as mail-in ballots were tallied over the following days, turning the election in his favor.
The post Red Mirage, Blue Mirage: Why Early 2024 Election Results Can Be Misleading appeared first on Newsweek.
