An intense Santa Ana wind event, California’s second this week, is expected to bring “extremely critical” fire weather and put much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties in a “particularly dangerous situation” for risky wildfire weather from late Tuesday through Friday, forecasters said.
The weather pattern has prompted various warnings in Northern and Southern California for high winds that could damage trees and lead to power outages, dangerous weather conditions that could help fires burn out of control, and sea conditions that could capsize boats. The worst is expected in Southern California.
Although several wind events have affected the state in recent weeks, the current system is among the strongest yet, said Bryan Lewis, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Los Angeles.
It is not uncommon, especially in the Los Angeles area, for a red flag warning to be issued when there is low humidity, dry fuels and strong winds that could exacerbate any wildfires. But the language in Tuesday’s warning is among the strongest that forecasters use; they are rare in red flag warnings and are typically used every three to five years, according to the Weather Service’s Los Angeles office. That office in particular has used that description only twice before, both times for warnings in 2020.
Warnings alone aren’t a prediction that a wildfire will occur, but they suggest that the weather conditions are primed to help any fires that spark grow more quickly.
“These are extremely critical and highly volatile conditions,” forecasters said, warning that any new fires “will have rapid fire spread, extreme fire behavior and long-range spotting.”
The strongest winds are expected from Wednesday morning to Wednesday night, when widespread damaging gusts of 60 to 80 miles per hour are likely in the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties (including those in the Santa Monica and Santa Susana), with isolated gusts of 80 to 100 m.p.h. possible in areas of the San Gabriel Mountains, the warning states.
It is very likely that gusts of 50 to 70 m.p.h. will extend out of the mountains into some valleys and even coastal locations like the Malibu coast and Ventura County coastal plain.
Forecasters also issued a storm warning for the Santa Barbara Channel, Mr. Lewis said. Strong winds are likely to create exceptionally dangerous sea conditions that could capsize or damage vessels of any size.
Other parts of the state are also on edge in anticipation of potential wildfires.
Fire weather conditions that range from “elevated” to “locally critical,” which are slightly less severe than what Southern California is facing, are also possible in the San Francisco Bay Area from Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
Red flag warnings will continue for this region through Thursday, including San Francisco and Napa and Sonoma counties.
Forecasters in those areas are warning that the combination of strong northeasterly winds and low humidity could make it more difficult to control any fires that do break out.
Strong winds may have contributed to two separate incidents in which boats capsized in Bodega Bay in Northern California on Saturday and on Monday — both in similar locations and under similar conditions.
The wind was close to 30 m.p.h., and rescue and recovery workers had to contend with waves that were between six and 10 feet high, said Levi Read, chief petty officer with U.S. Coast Guard District 11, in a phone interview on Tuesday.
But the authorities could not definitively link the episodes to the wind, he added, because the only survivor of both was an 11-year-old boy. Across both boats, two people have been confirmed dead, and five others are still missing, Petty Officer Read said. The search for them has been suspended, he said.
The Coast Guard and the Weather Service implored people to know their capabilities on the water and to be well-informed of the forecasts and warnings.
“The warnings are out there,” Petty Officer Read said.
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