Forecasters are fairly confident when it comes to saying what Tropical Storm Rafael will do over the next two days as it cuts across the Caribbean Sea toward Cuba. It’s the days after that — as the storm approaches the United States — where forecasters are less certain.
As of Monday afternoon, here’s a look at where forecasters think the storm will head this week.
Monday
Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by Monday evening.
Overnight, Rafael will pass the western side of Jamaica, but its center is expected to remain offshore. This is the second storm to affect the island this year, after a very strong Hurricane Beryl early in the season grazed the island with intense winds that knocked out power in hundreds of thousands of households and flooded several communities.
Tropical storm watches were issued Monday afternoon for parts of the Florida Keys, which means such conditions are possible within a 48-hour window.
Tuesday
On Tuesday morning, Rafael should be directly west of Jamaica. It will move to the northwest through the day.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday afternoon as the storm most likely becomes a hurricane as it passes through. Tropical-storm-force winds could arrive in South Florida as early as late Tuesday as the storm moves north, but are most likely to arrive Wednesday morning, forecasters said.
Wednesday
If it hasn’t already, the storm is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. By the morning, it will be close to the southwestern coast of Cuba. The country’s power grid has struggled in recent weeks, and Cuba faced repeated nationwide outages in the run-up to Hurricane Oscar, which hit the eastern side of the island in October. The country has faced regular rolling blackouts since then.
By Wednesday night, depending on the storm’s path, more of Florida’s Gulf Coast could begin to see gustier winds, including Tampa and the Big Bend region, which were directly hit by Debby, Helene and Milton this year.
The big question is what happens to the storm after it crosses Cuba. Forecasters are less certain about what the storm will do when it enters the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week. Some models have it heading toward the Big Bend again, while others show it moving ashore in Louisiana. And others have it moving in that same direction, and then stalling and dissipating over the western Gulf. A more accurate picture should emerge in the coming days, but as of Monday, the forecasters said they had low confidence in determining where it might go.
Thursday
Heavy rain “will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeast United States,” by the middle and end of the week, forecasters said. Where the heaviest rain falls depends on the storm’s path.
Friday
Despite the storm’s track, forecasters believe that the storm is likely to weaken when it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.
Saturday
Depending on what happens to the storm, it’s possible that it could make landfall Saturday morning. Or, it could look as if it is making landfall and then change direction.
The post A Day-by-Day Forecast for Tropical Storm Rafael appeared first on New York Times.
