Republican pollster and political analyst Frank Luntz has identified the two states that Donald Trump cannot afford to lose in the presidential election.
Speaking to Fox News, Luntz said: “For Donald Trump, if he wins in either Pennsylvania or Michigan I don’t see how he loses the election. But he’s got to win one of those two states.”
The polls are currently extremely tight for Republican presidential candidate Trump and Democratic candidate Harris in both Pennsylvania and Michigan.
In Pennsylvania, pollster Nate Silver estimates that Trump is 0.8 of a point ahead. FiveThirtyEight shows Harris is ahead by 3 points, while RealClearPolitics declares that Trump is ahead by 0.3 points.
With 19 electoral colleges to its name, Pennsylvania is arguably the most important swing state. If Harris manages to win it, she would only need any two other swing states—excepting Nevada—to take the White House.
In Michigan, the results are equally tied, though pollsters agree that Harris is leading.
According to a recent poll, conducted by a group that is generally Republican affiliated, Harris has a two-point lead in Michigan.
For her to win, Luntz said it would be vital that she wins either Georgia or North Carolina, describing both states as “incredibly powerful bellwethers.”
Both states are likely to declare early Wednesday evening.
Speaking as to when the final election results would be revealed, Luntz said “we won’t know the winner until Wednesday or Thursday, but we will have a bellwether by late Wednesday evening.”
Newsweek has contacted Luntz, via his website, for comment.
Georgia is one of the key tipping points in this year’s election, with Kamala Harris desperately trying to court its Black voters.
The state broke early voting records last week with over half its active voters already casting their ballot.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump has an average 1 point lead in the Peach State. This compares with Nate Silver’s blog, which says Trump has a 1.3 point lead and RealClearPolitics which gives Trump a 1.9 point lead.
With 16 electoral colleges, North Carolina plays a strategic role in the election. If Harris takes North Carolina then Trump will need to win at least two Rust Belt swing states and two more Sun Belt States.
However, the only time North Carolina has voted Democrat since 1980 was for President Obama in 2008.
Luntz declared that the race was currently 50/50, with both candidates seemingly “hitting on all cylinders” in the last 48 hours.
Luntz also criticized a shocking Iowa poll, undertaken by Selzer & Co. for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, that showed Harris had a three percent lead on Trump in Iowa, a historically red state.
“I don’t believe the Iowa results,” said Luntz. “If it is true it will mean every other survey is wrong across the country. It’s an outlier and we should be focused on what’s happening overall across each of these states and it really is a dead heat.”
“I’m prepared to say that Trump does win Georgia. I’m prepared to give Wisconsin to Harris. These other states are just simply too close to call and in the end it is about turnout. It’s about whether younger women vote—and they haven’t in the past. Whether Union members and Latinos participate on the Republican side. I’m watching these very specific voter groups because they will make the decision and right now it really is a 50/50 race.”
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