Renowned election guru Nate Silver called the race for the White House a “pure toss-up” Sunday as he gave ex-President Donald Trump a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in his latest forecast.
Silver’s model shows Trump has a 51.5% chance of clinching the Electoral College while Harris has a 48.1% chance, according to a Substack post on Sunday morning, Mediate reported.
“[New York Times] swing state polls good for Harris but not great. Morning Consult swing state polls good for Trump but not great,” Silver tweeted Sunday.
“It’s a pure toss-up.”
The Times/Siena College swing state poll showed the two candidates remain in a dead heat across the nation’s seven battleground states with Election Day two days away.
Harris has slight leads in Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and Wisconsin and Trump has a clearer edge in Arizona, the poll shows. The pair are essentially tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The Morning Consult poll shows Trump with razor-thin leads in North Carolina, Georgia, and Wisconsin while it’s a tie in Arizona and Pennsylvania, Forbes reported.
The new batch of polling comes after the Des Moines Register revealed bombshell findings from famed pollster J. Ann Selzer on Saturday that showed Harris topping Trump in Iowa 47% to 44% in the usually reliable red state.
Silver wrote that the Selzer survey “probably won’t matter” in helping decide who wins the presidency either way. But he noted Harris backers should be happy with the shocking result.
“I think Harris voters are reasonable in rejoicing over the Selzer survey,” Silver wrote, according to Mediaite.
“At the very least, it clinches the case that there will be plenty of numbers from high-quality pollsters in the final batch of polls that support a Harris victory — along with roughly as many that imply a Trump win.
“If Trump had ‘momentum’ in October, it has now petered out in November,” Silver added. “And we will very likely go into Tuesday night with the race being truly a toss-up, not leaning or tilting toward Trump.”
The national polling average released by Silver on Sunday morning showed Harris up over Trump 48.5% to 47.6%. But he cautioned his model doesn’t care about the national polls as much at this stage.
In swing states Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, Silver’s polling average gives a small lead to Trump while Harris has a close advantage in Michigan and Wisconsin.
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