It was a classic hot mic moment: while Kamala Harris grabbed a beer at a bar in Michigan with Governor Gretchen Whitmer on Saturday, the Vice President apparently let slip that her campaign was struggling to get through to male voters.
“We need to move ground among men,” she was heard to confide, seemingly unaware the mic was still on.
In particular, Harris has been striving to reach young Black voters, at one point recruiting former president Barack Obama to put his shoulder to the wheel. Responses on social media suggested the intervention backfired, with many considering his remarks to be disrespectful and patronizing.
Now new analysis seen by Newsweek shows that Harris’ task has been made more difficult by the decline in church attendance by young Black men in America.
The Democrats have long enjoyed and relied upon support from this demographic: since 1980, no Democrat has failed to receive less than 80 percent of the Black vote, with churches and religious communities serving as a vital channel of communication for the Democratic party.
Harris, a Baptist and former choirgirl with a long history of civil rights campaigning, is seemingly well placed to connect with religious leaders.
However the church seems to be losing support among younger voters, blowing a hole in Harris’ outreach.
Research by the 2040 Strategy Group shows that Millennial and Gen Z voters are now over 45 percent of the Black electorate, and that these same groups are significantly less engaged with the church than older generations.
According to Pew Research, the Baby Boomer generation are significantly more religious than Millennials and Gen Z voters – some 50 percent of Boomers reported that they regularly attend Black congregations. Just three-in-ten Millennials and Gen Z voters said they attended.
Dr. Tabitha Bonilla, co-founder of the 2040 Strategy Group and an expert on voting behavior, told Newsweek that the decline in congregation attendance was partly a cultural trend, as younger people are less likely to hold strong religious beliefs.
“There has been a generational decline in church attendance. Pew’s data estimates about a 13% drop in attendance of a Black church from the oldest generations to the youngest. And, in addition to being less likely to attend a Black church, younger generations are simply much less religious in general and less likely to be connected to a Black church at all.
“Ultimately, what I think this means is that political organizers need to be responsive to the changes in Black communities. They cannot try the same old organizing techniques or assume that the messages that get older Black voters to the polls are the same ones that turnout younger Black voters,” she said.
The Harris campaign appears to know this, turning to less traditional campaign tactics to reach younger Black voters.
Harris’ radio interview with Charlamagne tha God, a young Black shock-jock-turned political-pundit, was much better received than earlier campaign events, and trendier ads that take advantage of social media formats have also preformed well online.
Harris has been rewarded with some encouraging data towards the end of the race.
A 2040 Strategy Group poll, gathered between October 4-19, showed her up 10 points with Gen Z Black men since the beginning of October, putting her on par with Biden’s share of the Black vote in 2020.
Dr. Alvin Tillery, founder of the Alliance for Black Equality, told Newsweek that Harris’ alternative campaigning style has paid off.
“Vice President Harris has the potential to get to where she needs to be with Black male voters in order to win on November 5th. In just three weeks, she has made serious gains with young Black men and increased their support of her by 10 points,” he said.
“Our previous tracking polls have showed that softer than normal support for Biden and Harris in the Black electorate during the 2024 presidential election cycle is driven by a cohort replacement effect in the Black community.
“Millennial and Gen Z voters, who are less attached to the Democratic Party and harder to reach through traditional methods of getting out the vote, Black churches and 501c3 nonprofits, are now between 45 percent and 50 percent of the Black electorate.
“Every pledge of support counts and is a sign that Harris’ shift in strategy to speak more directly to the Black community is a smart move,” Dr. Bonilla said.
Harris still has some way to go: her support among Black voters currently stands at 87%, with some voters still making up their minds. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won over 90 percent of the Black protestant vote, while Biden enjoyed 90% in the last election.
Former President Barack Obama made visiting churches and local Black communities a central part of both his election campaigns, and Biden’s closeness with South Carolina’s Black leaders was pivotal in his victory during the 2019 Democratic primary.
Peter Loge, a former adviser within the Obama administration, told Newsweek that strong support from Black voters has consistently given Democrats the edge in important swing states, and could be the difference this election.
“Roughly one third of Georgians are African American, as are roughly one in four North Carolinians. Both states are important to both candidates, and both states could go either way. Even in states with smaller Black populations, every vote matters so every voter is important,” he said.
Trump has also been making gains among Black voters throughout all three of his presidential elections. Between the 2016 and 2020 election, he increased his share of the Black vote by 4 points, rising from 8 percent to 12 percent, and polls indicate he could be on track to make a similar jump this year.
A poll released by the NAACP on Tuesday showed 63 percent of Black voters favor Harris over Trump, but that still gives Trump a decent chunk of the electorate. Additionally, while support for Harris among Black women remains strong at 67 percent, it falls to 49 percent among Black men under 50, again highlighting a gender divide.
“In an election this close every vote could make a difference. A lack of Black support for either Trump or Harris voters could cost them the White House,” Loge said.
Newsweek contacted the Harris campaign for comment on this story via email.
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