Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Bangladesh’s interim government faces challenges on a few fronts, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visits Saudi Arabia for the third time in six months, and the United States and Israel issue security alerts for Sri Lanka.
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Unrest Simmers in Bangladesh
It’s been a rough few weeks for Bangladesh’s interim government. On Monday, the country’s statistics bureau released figures showing that its GDP growth slowed significantly in the final quarter of fiscal year 2023-24 (April to June), growing 3.9 percent compared with 6.9 percent during the same period of the previous fiscal year.
Bangladesh’s three main economic sectors—agriculture, industries, and services—all experienced slowdowns. It’s a sobering reminder for Dhaka of serious economic challenges that have been mounting for a few years, chief among them rising inflation.
Some economists predict that Bangladesh’s GDP growth rate will continue to decrease in fiscal year 2024-25—in part because of the shocks inflicted on the economy over the summer, when student-led mass protests against Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina led to brutal police crackdowns and her eventual resignation in August, and the political uncertainty that has followed.
Political unrest has resurged in recent days. Last week, thousands of people took to the streets calling for the resignation of Bangladeshi President Mohammed Shahabuddin, who serves in a ceremonial post. They were triggered by Shahabuddin’s statement that he hadn’t seen Hasina’s resignation letter, which protesters interpreted as him not accepting that she had ceded power.
Meanwhile, Islamist hard-liners emboldened by Hasina’s exit have staged rallies this month, including some calling for the establishment of an Islamic caliphate. Though overall violence has decreased since the days after Hasina’s departure, law and order in Bangladesh remains tenuous. Many police officers have not felt safe returning to work, fearing retaliatory violence.
Bangladesh’s leaders also face a worsening humanitarian emergency, with intensifying conflict in neighboring Myanmar sending additional Rohingya refugees into a country already struggling to manage the nearly 1 million already there.
The interim government has a few things going for it. It is led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus and accomplished senior advisors who include activists, economists, and diplomats genuinely committed to stabilizing Bangladesh. It counts on robust backing from the public, which supports its democratization goals and reform plans. It also has the buy-in of much of the international community.
Still, that government is in a tough spot. It has set ambitious objectives and is burdened by the sky-high expectations of a public that badly wants things to improve—and quickly.
Bangladesh’s interim leaders lack a mandate and have given no formal time frame for elections. If authorities struggle to stabilize the economy and show little progress on reforms, the public could grow restless. The country’s army chief has hinted that national elections could come in 12 to 18 months, a wait that many Bangladeshis may conclude is too long.
The interim government’s challenges are compounded by inexperience: Yunus and his senior advisors may be sharp thinkers, but they have never run a country before.
Dhaka’s political environment is bitterly divided, and the interim government has said it intends to ban Hasina’s Awami League party from participating in politics. Some Awami League supporters have been arrested on suspicious charges, and victims of retaliatory violence after Hasina’s resignation say the government is ignoring their pleas for justice.
Even student activists—the backbone of the movement that forced Hasina out—are presenting challenges with their protests. Some student leaders are members of the government, so Dhaka needs to tread carefully.
In due course, the biggest challenge for Bangladesh’s interim government will be balancing its commitment to pursue reform, democratization, and stabilization policies with the need to honor the sentiments of a public unwilling to extend open-ended support.
What We’re Following
Pakistani PM visits Saudi Arabia. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visited Saudi Arabia on Tuesday and Wednesday. He participated in an investment summit and held talks with senior Saudi officials—including Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman—about security, strategic, and economic cooperation.
Sharif also traveled to Saudi Arabia twice in April, leading to an agreement between Sharif and Mohammed bin Salman to expedite the release of a $5 billion investment package pledged by Riyadh.
Pakistan’s close partnership with Saudi Arabia is especially important to Islamabad right now. Its relations with China have suffered setbacks amid rising Chinese concerns about terrorism in Pakistan; on Tuesday, Chinese Ambassador Jiang Zaidong criticized the security situation, saying it was “unacceptable” that Chinese nationals have been attacked twice in the last six months.
Pakistan has seen some stabilization, but its economy is still struggling, making Saudi assistance essential. Pakistan’s Special Investment Facilitation Council, a military-backed initiative to fast-track foreign investment, has heavily targeted Saudi Arabia. On his trip, Sharif likely intended to ensure that the $5 billion package is moving forward.
U.S., Israel issue security alerts for Sri Lanka. The United States and Israel issued separate security alerts for coastal areas of Sri Lanka last week. The U.S. Embassy in Colombo “strongly urged” U.S. citizens to avoid the Arugam Bay area, home to well-known beaches and popular with surfers, because of “credible information” about an attack.
Israel’s National Security Council issued an even more urgent warning, calling on Israeli citizens to “immediately leave” Arugam Bay and other areas nearby due to “credible terrorism threats.” Three Sri Lankans were arrested soon after these warnings went public.
Neither statement gave much detail about the nature of the threats. However, Sri Lankan officials indicated that the threat originated in Iran and that the goal was to target Israelis in retaliation for Israeli actions in the Middle East. Sri Lanka, which has close ties with Israel, has participated in the U.S.-led military coalition that aims to curb Iran-backed Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea.
Colombo has additional incentive to act quickly: Tourism is a critical part of Sri Lanka’s recovering economy, and officials won’t want to see any visitors scared off.
Since the end of its civil war in 2009, Sri Lanka has largely avoided large-scale violence, but shocking attacks on Easter Sunday in 2019 killed 269 people. (Sri Lankan officials blamed local militants for that attack, which was also claimed by the Islamic State.)
Pakistan makes pitch for BRICS membership. Russia was another country of focus for Pakistan this week. On Monday, with a Russian parliamentary delegation in Islamabad, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari called on Moscow to support Pakistan’s admission into BRICS.
Pakistan applied for membership nearly a year ago, but it wasn’t invited to the leaders’ summit held in Kazan, Russia, last week—an indication that its quest to join hasn’t gotten very far. BRICS expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates in January. Other nonmembers that are seeking to join the bloc were invited to the summit.
On one level, Pakistan seems like a long shot to join BRICS. Its economy isn’t as large or fast-growing as the group’s founding members, many of the new members, or other prospective members—which include Malaysia, Turkey, and Singapore. India also likely opposes Pakistan’s accession, and BRICS abides by consensus.
Yet Pakistan’s membership shouldn’t be ruled out. BRICS is clearly capitalizing on deepening discontent with the West, and its decision to expand suggests a willingness to diversify its membership. Strong economic clout may no longer be a requisite. If China and Russia were to back Pakistan’s membership with a critical mass of others, they could overrule Indian objections.
Under the Radar
South Asia is gearing up for another big international cricket tournament. This week, the Hong Kong Sixes competition returns after seven years. Much of its popularity derives from its fast-paced style of play. Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka will all participate in the 12-team tournament, which also includes heavyweights Australia and England.
The competition runs Nov. 1-3, and the first day will feature an India-Pakistan showdown. Though many of South Asia’s top cricket stars have participated in the Hong Kong Sixes over the years, the teams this year for the most part don’t feature headliners from national squads.
With cricket set to become an Olympic sport at the 2028 Summer Games in Los Angeles, tournament organizers will likely use this competition to try to attract more interest in cricket from East Asian audiences. People in cricket-mad South Asia will eagerly await the 2028 Games, especially as they could position countries in the region for greater Olympic success.
FP’s Most Read This Week
Regional Voices
In Dawn, former Pakistani diplomat Maleeha Lodhi laments the country’s controversial new constitutional amendment. “The drama over the constitutional package has laid bare the lack of commitment of the ruling party and its political allies to democracy and democratic principles,” she writes. “Their undermining of judicial independence has left the country’s institutions poorer.”
In the Kathmandu Post, scholar Pragya Ghimire writes about multilateral diplomacy’s importance for Nepal. The country’s “geopolitical situation demands effective multilateral diplomacy to prevent and minimise foreign interference,” she writes. “So, rule-based, inclusive and accountable multilateral systems can help Nepal maintain balanced bilateral relationships with its neighbours.”
A Kuensel editorial warns of the dangers of social media in Bhutan. “While these platforms can foster creativity and connection, they are also exposing young people to violent, traumatic content, unrealistic standards, cyber bullying, and hate crimes,” it argues.
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