Do C.E.O.s think Donald Trump will win?
As the presidential race nears its end next week, the most notable public sound from many C.E.O.s and businesses on the election has been silence — and Donald Trump’s camp is increasingly interpreting that as a sign that corporate America may be preparing for him to win.
New reports show that top business leaders, including Silicon Valley heavyweights, have reached out to the former president, seemingly looking to rebuild relations and protect their businesses if Trump defeats Vice President Kamala Harris.
Business leaders are privately discussing how to prepare for a Trump return. Attendees at a gathering last week of the Business Council, an invite-only association of C.E.O.s, talked about steps to take in case Trump goes after perceived enemies, according to The Washington Post.
“I’ve told C.E.O.s to engage as fast as possible because the clock is ticking,” an unidentified Trump adviser told The Post. “If you’re somebody who has endorsed Harris, and we’ve never heard from you at any point until after the election, you’ve got an uphill battle.”
Big Tech leaders are among those trying to reboot relations. In recent weeks, Trump has said that he has spoken with Tim Cook of Apple and Sundar Pichai of Alphabet. He has also heard from Mark Zuckerberg, and CNN adds that Andy Jassy of Amazon has reached out.
The reason for such outreach is clear, Trump associates told CNN: Trump has gone after many of their companies and re-establishing relations is at the least a hedge in case he wins next week. (An unidentified source told CNN that Jassy’s call, made at the company’s request, was a general exchange of pleasantries.)
A reminder of where things stand: The Times’s poll tracker shows Vice President Harris with just a 1-point lead on Trump, and the two candidates splitting the seven battleground states.
But even the suggestion of staying neutral is drawing blowback. The decision by The Washington Post last week to not endorse a presidential candidate was condemned by current and former stars at the newspaper, including Marty Baron, its former editor, and Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein.
The Times reports that the decision against endorsing was made by Jeff Bezos, who owns The Post, and came despite editorial writers having already drafted an endorsement of Harris. Some critics of the decision questioned whether Bezos’s other business interests were behind the move.
“It looks to me more like a hedge than a confident prediction that he thinks Trump will win,” Lionel Barber, a former editor of the Financial Times, told DealBook. The challenge is that he is a billionaire businessman who owns a newspaper, “and they are in the political arena every day.”
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
Robinhood opens up a political betting market. The trading platform, which became hugely popular with day traders during pandemic lockdown, has started allowing its users to place wagers on who will win the presidential race. Robinhood is entering a crowded market, which has drawn scrutiny after a single French trader appears to have swung the odds on Polymarket in favor of Donald Trump.
Oil prices plunge after Israel’s airstrikes on Iran. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell more than 6 percent on Monday as it became clear that the Israeli military had largely spared Iran’s oil infrastructure. Oil markets have been extremely volatile as investors feared an escalation of fighting in the Middle East, raising concerns about global inflation and growth.
Chinese hackers are said to have spied on U.S. political officials. Federal authorities are investigating how a Beijing-affiliated group intercepted calls and text messages from phones belonging to several people, including a Trump campaign adviser, according to The Washington Post. The potential security breach, discovered by Microsoft researchers, adds to concerns of foreign espionage and interference ahead of Election Day.
Inside the Harris strategy to gain ground on the economy
It’s eight days until Election Day, and the economy remains the biggest issue that could swing the race. Some recent polls show Donald Trump retaining a lead on the issue, something that the former president appears eager to exploit on the campaign trail.
But other opinion polling suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris has erased some of her opponent’s advantage on the economy. DealBook’s Lauren Hirsch spoke with Molly Murphy, a pollster for the Harris campaign, about how the Democratic candidate is trying to close that gap.
The Harris campaign sees an opening on the economy question, despite surveys suggesting that Trump is still more broadly trusted to handle the issue. (The former president has repeatedly pressed the point: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” he asked at his inflammatory rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Sunday, promising to end inflation and introduce big new tariffs and tax breaks.)
But Murphy said that the Harris campaign’s internal polling shows a divide on economic matters. Harris, she said, rates higher than Trump when it comes to caring about the middle class, underscoring a central part of the Democratic candidate’s platform. The Harris team’s data also suggest that Trump and Harris are tied when it comes to public opinion on tackling the cost of living.
Shoring up business-community support remains a priority. Her campaign has drawn backing from the top echelons of corporate America — and their money — which has also been reflected in the campaign’s messaging. It has also counted on high-profile surrogates, like Mark Cuban, who have been meant to offset the support that Trump has gotten from figures including Elon Musk. (The tech mogul appeared at last night’s M.S.G. rally and promised that a second Trump administration could slash the federal budget by a third.)
“Elevating the business community, elevating economists, elevating the types of people that voters don’t think would support Democrats, says something about the type of candidate she is,” Murphy told DealBook.
Questioning Trump’s credibility is another focus. The Harris campaign is seeking to undercut the former president’s standing on the economy. Should Trump win, Murphy said, “He will not be focused on this issue. He will not be focused on reducing costs. He will be focused on himself.”
But Harris’s challenge remains formidable. While the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows Harris more than halving the gap on who would be a better steward of the economy, she’s still down by six points on the issue. The campaign does not plan to lay out extensive new details around her plans, Murphy said, arguing that a compelling broader vision is more likely to be persuasive.
In other political news: Following a Washington Post report about Elon Musk having potentially violated immigration laws when he first began his career in the United States, President Biden accused the Tesla chief of having been an “illegal worker.”
A busy week awaits the markets
A sell-off in the bond market highlighted wider anxiety about the markets, helping to snap the S&P 500’s six-week winning streak on Friday. Stocks will face more tests this week, including inflation data, a pivotal jobs report and Big Tech earnings.
Five of the Magnificent 7 group of tech giants report results this week. Their stocks collectively rose 3.5 percent last week, outperforming the wider market, on the back of Tesla’s strong earnings. Whether tech giants keep up their bumper profits is weighing on investors, especially given questions about when expensive investments in artificial intelligence will start paying off.
Alphabet, Google’s parent company, reports tomorrow. Meta and Microsoft follow on Wednesday, with Apple and Amazon on Thursday.
Consumer-facing companies will also be under the microscope. Several C.E.O.s have painted a picture on earnings calls of a slowing but resilient economy, raising concern that lower-income consumers are holding back.
It’s a big week for economic data, too. Inflation has fallen steadily this year, persuading the Fed to start cutting interest rates. But investors remain uncertain about the size and frequency of future cuts, putting lots of attention on Thursday’s release of the latest Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, a report closely watched by the central bank.
Economists expect the P.C.E. data to show that inflation continues to cool. Any big surprises could scramble the Fed’s outlook ahead of next week’s rate-setting meeting. (The futures market on Monday was penciling in a reduction of a quarter percentage point.)
Friday’s jobs report could be a big downer. It’s expected to show that employers added 125,000 jobs in October, a steep drop from last month’s 254,000. Hurting matters were hurricanes and the Boeing strike, analysts say.
The big buzz in Riyadh
The tricky optics of being seen at the Future Investment Initiative was one of the major talking points last year that clouded Saudi Arabia’s huge investment and networking shindig. That event had been held less than three weeks after the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas on Israel plunged the region, and the world, into deeper geopolitical turmoil.
But for C.E.O.s who need to follow the money and engage with the oil-rich Saudis looking to diversify their economy, those tensions seem to have largely subsided this year.
A Who’s Who of Wall Street and tech world executives is scheduled to speak at the event, which kicks off tomorrow. They include Ken Griffin, C.E.O. of Citadel, the Goldman Sachs boss David Solomon and Ruth Porat, president of Google. (A notable exception is Jamie Dimon, the C.E.O. of JPMorgan Chase.)
DealBook spoke to The Times’s Rob Copeland, who is covering the event from Riyadh, to ask what he’s seeing:
Some of the heavier financial hitters have been here for days for the off-books parties thrown by major regional investors — not the least the Kingdom’s powerful Public Investment Fund, which invests funds from its giant oil reserves and is gearing up to pour tens of billions of dollars into artificial intelligence.
On the connecting flight over from Dubai, three international financiers debated with me whether the U.S. presidential election would get more than a name check — the verdict was no — and how attendees such as Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, will address the fragile situation in Israel, Gaza and Lebanon.
Other prominent speakers include:
Jane Fraser, C.E.O. of Citi
Ted Pick, C.E.O. of Morgan Stanley
Marc Rowan, C.E.O. of Apollo Global Management
Harvey M. Schwartz, C.E.O. of Carlyle
Neil Shen, the managing partner of HongShan
THE SPEED READ
Deals
Boeing will reportedly begin its effort to raise more than $15 billion in new capital as soon as Monday. (Reuters)
The investment giant General Atlantic has opened an office in Saudi Arabia, as Western financial firms rush to tap vast pools of Middle Eastern money. (Bloomberg)
EQT, the publicly traded European private equity firm, expects to buy rivals as part of a wave of consolidation in the industry. (FT)
Elections, politics and policy
Recent Supreme Court decisions curtailing the reach of federal regulators have factored into more than 150 legal challenges against government agencies, according to a new review. (WaPo)
Japan’s governing party lost its majority in parliamentary elections on Sunday, throwing the country’s politics into disarray. (NYT)
Best of the rest
“How a Mumbai Drugmaker Is Helping Putin Get Nvidia AI Chips” (Bloomberg)
As tensions between Washington and Beijing remain high, some in China are looking for the next Henry Kissinger — and wonder whether Steve Schwarzman or John Kerry fit the bill. (WaPo)
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