Republican nominee Donald Trump is narrowly leading Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in aggregator RealClearPolling’s average of national polls for the first time since August.
As of early Monday, Trump led by a whisker—he was 0.1 point ahead with 48.5 percent, compared to Harris’ 48.4 percent.
Polls measure the popular vote. A candidate can win this, but still lose the election if they fail to secure 270 out of the 538 Electoral College votes, a number based on each state’s delegates in the Senate and House of Representatives. According to FiveThirtyEight’s Electoral College simulations of election outcomes, Trump would win the electoral college 54 times out of 100, while Harris would be victorious 45 times out of 100, as of Monday morning.
Trump’s narrow lead stands in contrast to his position against his then-rival President Joe Biden this time during the 2020 election. At the same point during the race, Biden led by a comfortable 7.5 points. Trump had 43.6 percent support while Biden had 51.1 according to RealClearPolling’s average at the time.
In 2016, then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton led Trump by 4.6 points, with 47.1 percent support versus the latter’s 42.5 percent, though Trump would go on to win that election.
“President Trump is out-working Kamala Harris, and voters know America can no longer survive under Kamala’s destructive policies of soaring inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime terrorizing every community,” Trump’s campaign spokesperson said.
Newsweek also contacted the Harris campaign for comment via email outside of standard working hours.
Other major aggregators of national polls have found that Harris is marginally ahead, however.
As of early Monday, FiveThirtyEight’s national average had Harris on 48.1 percent support and Trump on 46.7 percent, while statistician Nate Silver‘s Silver Bulletin blog had Harris on 48.6 and Trump on 47.4 percent.
Aggregations of betting odds currently favor Trump.
Oddsmakers give the Republican a 61.1 percent chance of victory and Harris a 37.7 percent chance as of Monday morning.
As for the all-important swing states, Trump currently leads slightly in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona, while Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump pulled ahead of Harris in Pennsylvania last week, marking the first time since July that the Republican had the advantage in the Keystone State.
Trump led Biden in the state prior to the latter’s exit from the race in July. Democratic presidential candidate Harris had been marginally in the lead since then, but last Monday, FiveThirtyEight’s national average had Trump 0.3 points ahead of Harris.
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