Michigan’s Senate Democratic primary was acrimonious, expensive, highly competitive and illustrative of the deep divides shaping the sprawling Democratic coalition.
Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, who won the Democratic nomination, was a favorite of younger voters and college-educated liberals, while Representative Haley Stevens, who trailed him by less than one percentage point on Wednesday afternoon, appeared strong in areas that are home to many Black and working-class voters. Both demonstrated traction in a number of upscale suburban counties.
Here’s a closer look at where each candidate showed strength.
El-Sayed ran up the score in counties with big college towns.
Dr. El-Sayed, a progressive former public health official, was the overwhelming favorite in college towns and some urban areas, including in Washtenaw County, home to Ann Arbor and the University of Michigan, winning 61 percent of the vote there. He also posted a strong showing in Ingham County, where Lansing and Michigan State University are based, and in Kent County, home to fast-growing Grand Rapids, where there are a number of colleges as well as a vibrant community of young professionals.
He did well in a number of wealthy counties.
He also carried some of the counties with the highest median incomes, including Washtenaw, Livingston — between Detroit and Lansing — and Ottawa, near Grand Rapids. There were exceptions, including Ms. Stevens’s home turf of Oakland County.
He dominated in areas with large Arab communities.
Dr. El-Sayed, the Michigan-born son of Egyptian immigrants, was a strong performer in areas with significant Arab American populations. In the majority-Arab community of Dearborn, Mich., he was winning nearly 80 percent of the vote. In nearby Dearborn Heights, he notched more than 70 percent of the vote.
He was the choice of in-person voters.
Dr. El-Sayed’s coalition was powered by voters who cast ballots in person. He led by nearly 25 points among Election Day voters and those who voted early at the polls. By contrast, Ms. Stevens did well with people who voted by mail, a group that tends to be older.
Stevens was strong in counties with major Black urban centers.
Ms. Stevens showed particular strength in counties that are home to Black urban centers, including Wayne County, which includes Detroit, and Genesee, which includes Flint.
Within Wayne County, her support was concentrated in Detroit. While Dr. El-Sayed won some of the precincts in the city’s center that are both majority Black and majority young, Ms. Stevens won more than 60 percent of the overall vote in the city. It appeared to be the latest example this Democratic primary season of older Black voters favoring the more centrist candidate over the left-leaning one — and it is a source of tension within the party across the country.
She was the choice in suburban Detroit counties.
Ms. Stevens, a moderate who represents a district anchored in vote-rich Oakland County in suburban Detroit, was winning in both the city and nearby suburban counties as of Wednesday, though Dr. El-Sayed kept her advantage in those counties to the single digits.
Oakland County is also home to a sizable Jewish community, where some were bothered by how Dr. El-Sayed discussed issues related to Israel. Rancorous debates on the subject were a defining feature of the race. While his sharp criticism of Israel and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee resonated with many of his supporters — AIPAC’s super PAC spent heavily for Ms. Stevens — he appears to have some work to do in winning over skeptical Jewish voters who are typically reliable Democrats.
She did well in rural counties with fewer college degrees.
Ms. Stevens’s coalition also appeared anchored in rural counties where fewer people have college degrees, winning in such counties across the eastern side of the state. For example, in Roscommon County, where one-fifth of the population holds a college degree, Ms. Stevens won by a commanding 32-point margin. Dr. El-Sayed, on the other hand, carried many rural counties in the Upper Peninsula and in the northwestern corner of the state that had comparatively higher shares of college-educated residents.
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