Every election cycle has its own story lines. This year, one of them is that young men love Donald Trump. Consider a few recent headlines.
From Politico: “‘They’re Just Over It’: How Trump Has Converted Male Frustration Into a Movement’.”
From NBC News: “For Him or Against Him, Young Men See the Election as All About Trump.”
And from NPR: “Why Some Young Male Voters Are Moving to Trump.”
Most of the evidence for this comes from focus groups and polls. In an August Times/Siena poll, for example, men aged 18 to 29 favored Trump by 13 points while women in the same age range favored Kamala Harris by 38 points.
To explain this swing to the right among young men, most observers look to the larger cultural environment. They say that our institutions stress inclusion and women’s empowerment in a way that alienates young men. They say that men feel undervalued and that Democrats don’t respect traditional masculine values. They say that young men are looking for a strong economy that would help them support a family, and that these men believe Trump will make it happen.
I think this narrative is a bit overstated. There’s no doubt that many young men are more supportive of Trump than they are of Harris. But overall, according to the most recent Harvard Youth Poll, young men who “definitely plan to vote” back Harris over Trump — 55 percent to 38 percent. For evidence in favor of the view that young men favor Trump, look no further than a recent survey of young male voters from Blueprint, a Democratic polling firm: Most men ages 18 to 29 rank inflation, jobs and the economy as top issues and trust Trump to handle them over Harris. Still, most of men surveyed by Blueprint have a favorable view of Harris — more favorable, in fact, than that of men ages 30 to 49.
But to my eye, Trump’s inroads — however large or modest they might be — with young men are less striking than Harris’s enormous lead with young women. The gender gap among young voters is as large as it has ever been. According to the Harvard poll, 70 percent of likely voters among young women of color favor Harris, as against 15 percent for Trump. The former president leads among young men across the three most recent Times/Siena polls, but Harris maintains a similar 67-to-28 advantage among young women there as well. You can find similar spreads in every available poll of the national race. Women overwhelming favor Harris, and men largely favor Trump.
The gender gap among young women has not inspired the same level of analysis and deep focus as has the gender gap with young men. Even a close reader of election coverage may forget for a moment that this is the first presidential election since the Supreme Court’s decision on Dobbs more than two years ago. If there were ever an election in which to focus on the political behavior of young women, it’s this one.
I don’t make predictions anymore, so I won’t try to make a guess about what these gaps mean for the final outcome. But I will say that if Kamala Harris wins the White House, we may look back and say that we should have focused a little more on the women, young and otherwise, who most likely made the difference.
What I Wrote
I wrote this week about the fact that high-ranking officials in the Trump administration have described the former president as either being a fascist or having fascistic tendencies.
This, as I wrote last week, is unprecedented. It’s one of the most extraordinary developments in American political history. To my mind, it is now the only story worth telling about the 2024 presidential election. It should be the only thing Americans talk about between now and Nov. 5. And every one of Trump’s allies and surrogates should have to answer the question of whether or not they agree that their boss is a “fascist to the core,” as [the retired Gen. Mark] Milley put it.
Now Reading
Christopher R. Browning on Hitler’s enablers for The New York Review of Books.
Deborah Friedell on “Hillbilly Elegy” for The London Review of Books.
Nina Eichacker on President Biden’s industrial policy for Dissent.
Ryan Cooper on the Trump campaign’s get-out-the-vote efforts in Pennsylvania for The American Prospect.
Matt Ford on the Supreme Court for The New Republic.
Photo of the Week
Charlottesville is in a long-term process of renovating or replacing its supply of public housing and the city recently demolished some of its oldest stock to make way for new construction. I walked over to the demolition site to take a few pictures. Here, I used a Leica M4-P (a few of you wanted to know the exact camera I’m working with) and Kodak Gold film. I believe the lens was the M-Hexanon 28mm, made originally for the Konica Hexar RF range finder.
Now Eating: Pasta with Spinach, Feta and Yogurt
From the Cooking section of The New York Times.
Ingredients
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1 cup plain Greek yogurt, preferably whole milk
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8 ounces feta, crumbled (about 1 cup)
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Fine sea salt, as needed
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1 pound short pasta, such as rigatoni, shells or campanelle
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2 tablespoons extra-virgin olive oil, plus more for drizzling
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2 garlic cloves, thinly sliced
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¼ teaspoon red-pepper flakes, plus more to taste
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1 (10-ounce) package frozen spinach, thawed and squeezed dry
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1 cup freshly chopped mint, basil or cilantro, or a combination, for serving (optional)
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Finely grated zest and juice of 1 lemon
Directions
Take the yogurt and feta out of the fridge so they can come up to room temperature while the pasta water boils.
Bring a large pot of salted water to boil. Add pasta and cook according to the package directions until al dente. Reserve 1 cup pasta water. Drain and set pasta aside.
Add olive oil to the pasta pot and set it over medium-high heat. Add the garlic and red-pepper flakes and cook until the edges are just golden brown, 1 to 2 minutes. Lower the heat and add the drained pasta. Add spinach, tossing to combine and warm it through.
Gently stir in the yogurt, crumbled feta, herbs (if using), lemon zest and juice of half a lemon. Add reserved pasta water as needed to loosen the sauce. Taste and add more salt, red-pepper flakes, and lemon juice as needed. Drizzle with olive oil and serve.
The post We’re Looking at the Wrong Gender Gap in Voting appeared first on New York Times.
