Next week, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres will deliver recommendations to the Security Council on protecting civilians in Sudan. Few moments could be more important during this vicious conflict. We fear it is on the road to becoming a repeat of the 1994 Rwanda genocide.
The war in Sudan is a cruel struggle across the vast expanses of the country between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a collection of paramilitaries, mercenaries, and allied militias, and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Sudan’s official military. The RSF was once known as the janjaweed, the notorious devils on horseback responsible for the worst atrocities of the 2003-2005 Darfur genocide, and for the past five months, the RSF and its allies have been laying siege to El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur.
Next week, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres will deliver recommendations to the Security Council on protecting civilians in Sudan. Few moments could be more important during this vicious conflict. We fear it is on the road to becoming a repeat of the 1994 Rwanda genocide.
The war in Sudan is a cruel struggle across the vast expanses of the country between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a collection of paramilitaries, mercenaries, and allied militias, and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Sudan’s official military. The RSF was once known as the janjaweed, the notorious devils on horseback responsible for the worst atrocities of the 2003-2005 Darfur genocide, and for the past five months, the RSF and its allies have been laying siege to El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur.
We know that the creation of a full-fledged, multidimensional peacekeeping mission isn’t politically feasible at this moment. But the gravity of the situation calls for the consideration of innovative ideas, many of which have been suggested by Sudanese voices, human rights experts, and peacekeeping specialists.
A nimble multinational or African Union-led protection force with troops provided by willing countries could be mounted with a mandate to protect civilians. The recent deployment of a Kenya-led multinational force in Haiti demonstrates that missions with specialized mandates can be established. With 2.8 million people in and around El Fasher trapped with no option to escape or receive assistance, and with the possibility of ethnically targeted killing on the horizon, the U.N. must act now.
We both have spent years grappling with the Rwandan tragedy. One of us was the force commander who led the U.N. Assistance Mission for Rwanda (UNAMIR) leading up to and during the 1994 genocide and authored a book called Shake Hands with the Devil. The other was a researcher for the investigative report into the genocide by the African Union (then known as the Organization of African Unity) and a member of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue negotiation team in 2000-2002.
Bitter experience has taught us that mass atrocities are only a surprise to those who aren’t paying attention.
‘‘Each case of modern genocide has taken the world by surprise,” the African Union report into the Rwanda Genocide concluded. “Even when, in retrospect, it is clear that unmistakable warning signs and statements of intent were there in advance for all to see.”
We must heed the warning signs.
RSF forces have burned dozens of villages of the ethnic Zaghawa people. Famine has been declared in parts of North Darfur. Local militias and armed groups allied with the SAF have so far been able to hold off capture of the city by the RSF. But both the RSF and the SAF have routinely engaged in attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure. No one is safe.
If El Fasher falls, the RSF would be free to conduct a wave of ethnically targeted killing that could be much larger and more lethal than anything it has done before during the 18-month war in Sudan.
“The world cannot afford to stand idly by as El Fasher descends into chaos,’’ said Alice Wairimu Nderitu, U.N. special advisor on the prevention of genocide. ‘‘We act now to prevent a disaster of unimaginable proportions.’’
A harrowing new report from the U.N. Independent International Fact-Finding Mission (FFM) on Sudan accuses both sides of ‘‘large-scale violations’’ of human rights and international humanitarian law. ‘‘Many of these violations amount to international crimes,’’ the report stated.
The report is explicit that ‘‘children are paying a very heavy toll in the conflict.’’ Both the SAF and the RSF are accused of killing and maiming children, as well as attacking schools and hospitals. The RSF has recruited and used children in hostilities and committed rape and other forms of sexual violence against them. The report cited ‘‘multiple credible reports’’ that the SAF ‘‘has played a role in the training and arming of children who have joined the popular mobilization.’’
In Darfur, the RSF has conducted a wave of ethnically motivated violence against non-Arab groups that some have concluded amounts to genocide. In an April report, the Raoul Wallenberg Centre argued that ‘‘clear and convincing evidence’’ revealed that the RSF and its allied militias ‘‘have committed and are committing genocide against the Masalit’’ people.
In June, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 2736, which cited ‘‘credible reports of ethnically motivated violence’’ committed by the RSF in El Fasher and the West Darfur capital of El Geneina, between April 24, 2023, and June 19, 2023. The El Geneina killings provide a preview of what the RSF has planned for El Fasher in North Darfur.
During the El Geneina campaign, the RSF committed ‘‘killings, torture, and other forms of cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment, including rape and other forms of sexual violence, as well as looting, pillage, and destruction of objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population,’’ according to the FFM report. One estimate put the number of deaths in El Geneina between 10,000 and 15,000.
In her address before the Security Council in August, Sudanese expert Kholood Khair called for a ‘‘mission to protect civilians,’’ noting the ‘‘vast majority of Sudanese people entirely exposed during the ongoing conflict, and vulnerable to atrocities committed by the RSF, SAF, and allied militias.’’ Citing a ‘‘total absence of protection for women and girls,’’ more than 250 Sudanese and African women signed an open letter calling for international and regional actors to ‘‘close the protection gap.’’
In his report providing civilian protection recommendations, which he will deliver on Monday, it is imperative that Guterres pushes for the establishment of an independent and impartial force with a strong mandate even in the absence of a cease-fire.
The multinational force we are proposing in Sudan could, initially, have targeted responsibilities to establish safe ‘‘green zones’’ or safe corridors for civilians to facilitate the delivery of lifesaving aid. It could support local self-protection efforts and establish boundaries to safeguard agricultural activities. Only fully vetted personnel subject to civilian oversight should be deployed.
Over time, the force could expand to encompass other responsibilities. It could monitor violations of human rights and international humanitarian law, as well as address the war’s systematic use of rape as a weapon and grave violations against children. It could collaborate with the local responders who are doing heroic work to aid Sudanese people in distress, notably the mutual aid networks (and Nobel Peace Prize nominees) known as emergency response rooms. It could engage in data gathering, creating monitoring and early warning systems, and offer support for civilian and civil society documentation of war crimes and human rights violations.
In the long run, the force could partner with and support a broad peace process, assist in the reimposition of civilian governance, and contribute to the creation of accountability mechanisms. The challenges facing Sudan are many. But we know that a durable peace will come only when the men with guns are supplanted by Sudanese civilians, including women, youth, and other underrepresented groups, who are free to build a society of equity and inclusion.
Guterres has the opportunity to make a bold choice on Sudan. He should call upon the Security Council to take swift action to protect a desperate population ravaged by war.
The U.N. made a tragic mistake in waiting too long to respond to the genocide in Rwanda. It must not do so again.
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