New York may not be a presidential swing state. But there is perhaps no more important battleground in this year’s race for the House of Representatives than the Empire State.
From the tip of Long Island to Syracuse, the two major parties are fighting over a half-dozen suburban swing districts — five held by Republicans — that helped decide the House majority in 2022 and are expected to again in November. While Democrats hold voter registration advantages in almost all of them, polls show that the Republicans’ focus on the southern border is resonating, along with other issues.
Here are the six races to watch.
New York’s 1st District
Who’s running?
Representative Nick LaLota, a first-term Republican, handily won this Eastern Long Island seat two years ago and is favored to win re-election. Though his district includes the Hamptons and Democratic-leaning suburbs, it has followed much of Long Island sharply right over concerns about immigration, crime and rising living costs.
Democrats have managed to make the race competitive largely based on the strength of their candidate, John Avlon. A moderate former CNN anchor, Mr. Avlon has raised huge sums of money and shown himself to be an unusually adept messenger.
What’s shaping the race?
Both Mr. Avlon and Mr. LaLota have spent the campaign fighting over the political center.
Mr. LaLota has spotlighted his (so far unsuccessful) efforts to lift the cap, instituted by former President Donald J. Trump, on the lucrative state and local tax deduction. He also has tried to separate himself from his party’s more conservative positions on abortion in response to attacks from his opponent.
Mr. Avlon calls himself “tough on crime,” has blamed Mr. LaLota and his party for rejecting a bipartisan bill to secure the border this year at Mr. Trump’s behest for political reasons, and welcomed the endorsement of Liz Cheney, the conservative former congresswoman.
What else to know: Pointed residency questions
Mr. LaLota has aggressively attacked Mr. Avlon for political carpetbagging, branding him a “fake Long Islander” based on records that show the Democrat declared a Manhattan co-op his primary residence for tax reasons.
Mr. Avlon, who owns a home in Sag Harbor inside the district, has tried to dismiss the attack as a distraction from the district’s more pressing concerns. It helps that Mr. LaLota actually resides outside the district, too, though only by a few miles. (Members of Congress are only required to live in the state they represent, not the district.)
New York’s 4th District
Who’s running?
Representative Anthony D’Esposito, a first-term Republican, is facing one of the most difficult districts to defend in the country. President Biden won the seat on the South Shore of Nassau County by 14 points in 2020.
Laura Gillen, a Democrat and former Hempstead Town supervisor, lost to Mr. D’Esposito in the 2022 midterms. She is hoping that presidential year turnout and a sizable financial advantage can help her flip it back to the Democrats, who held the seat for a quarter century until Mr. D’Esposito’s surprise victory in 2022.
What’s animating the race?
Republicans who successfully built their campaigns around crime and inflation two years ago have returned to a similar formula, with a few tweaks. “Crime, inflation, a failing economy and a wide-open border,” Mr. D’Esposito says in one of his ads. “These are the problems that are facing the American people.”
Ms. Gillen agrees that immigration is a top issue, and has spent nearly $1 million on an ad promising to work with “anyone from any party to secure our southern border.” But she has also put Mr. D’Esposito on the defensive over abortion rights, seizing on an old comment in which the Republican said he would “probably” vote for a 15-week abortion ban. (He now says he would not.)
What else to know: D’Esposito’s ethics woes
The New York Times reported in September that Mr. D’Esposito had put the daughter of his longtime fiancée and his mistress on the congressional payroll at the same time. The payments may have violated House ethics rules, and have exposed Mr. D’Esposito to withering attacks by Democrats who say his conduct is part of a long tradition of corruption in Nassau County.
New York’s 17th District
Who’s running?
Representative Mike Lawler, a Republican, narrowly won this center-left Lower Hudson Valley seat in 2022 in a stinging upset of Sean Patrick Maloney, the chairman of House Democrats’ campaign arm.
Now, Mondaire Jones, a former Democratic congressman, is trying to retire Mr. Lawler after just a single term. They are joined on the ballot by Anthony Frascone, a ghost candidate who Republicans helped win the left-leaning Working Families Party Line to siphon votes from Mr. Jones.
What’s animating the race?
Mr. Jones’s theory of the race is simple: Democrats’ numerical advantage in the district will be enough to power his victory, as long as he can convince voters that Mr. Lawler is not the moderate he claims to be.
He has hammered the Republican for endorsing Mr. Trump. He attacked Mr. Lawler for his work as an oil and gas lobbyist. And Democrats have spent millions of dollars on ads portraying Mr. Lawler as hostile to abortion.
But Mr. Lawler’s frequent appearances on CNN and willingness to cross the aisle have not just helped insulate him from attacks but attracted unusual support from labor unions.
Mr. Lawler, in turn, has mined old clips of Mr. Jones endorsing the defund the police movement and calling Immigration and Customs Enforcement a “racist institution” as examples of how the Democrat is out of touch with the more centrist district.
What else to know: A blackface incident
In October, The Times published an account of Mr. Lawler wearing blackface as part of a Michael Jackson Halloween costume in 2006. Mr. Lawler, who is white, apologized and said the costume had been in homage to one of his musical idols.
Mr. Jones, who is Black, called the images of Mr. Lawler in blackface “deeply offensive” and said he should drop out of the race.
New York’s 18th District
Who’s running?
Representative Pat Ryan was the only swing-seat Democrat in New York to survive in 2022. He is hoping his willingness to buck his party will win him another term in the mid-Hudson Valley.
Republicans have nominated Alison Esposito, a conservative former New York City police officer who recently ran for lieutenant governor.
What’s animating the race?
Ms. Esposito’s campaign would look familiar to many voters across the country. She has attacked Mr. Ryan and Democrats for failing to secure the southern border; blamed their expensive investments in infrastructure, fighting climate change and other social programs for painful inflation; and attacked Mr. Ryan as soft on crime.
But like Mr. Lawler, Mr. Ryan has a strong personal brand to fall back on. He teamed up with Republicans around New York’s migrant crisis and criticized Mr. Biden’s approach at the border. And he has made rising energy and housings costs a centerpiece of his campaign, along with abortion rights.
What else to know: The Orthodox Jewish vote
Mr. Ryan appears poised to win one of the fastest-growing constituencies: ultra-Orthodox Jewish voters.
The district’s Hasidic community, based in Kiryas Joel, typically votes as a bloc and has backed Mr. Trump in the past. But Mr. Ryan has won over its leadership by delivering lucrative federal infrastructure earmarks, speaking out against antisemitism and showing up. A lopsided result there could allow Mr. Ryan to stockpile thousands of votes.
New York’s 19th District
Who’s running?
In 2022, Representative Marc Molinaro, a Republican, beat his Democrat opponent, Josh Riley, by less than 2 points. Now Mr. Riley is back, loaded with campaign cash and some celebrity backers.
The race is quickly becoming one of the most exciting and consequential of the cycle as Mr. Molinaro, a former Dutchess County executive, and Mr. Riley, a lawyer and former U.S. Senate policy analyst, face off over the economy, abortion and immigration.
What’s shaping the race?
More than $25 million worth of political ads have been scheduled to run in this race — a testament to the stakes of this race and the district’s five separate media markets.
Mr. Riley’s fund-raising pitches have featured David Letterman and Mr. Riley’s old boss, former Senator Al Franken. His campaign ads point to Mr. Molinaro’s record in Congress, and the 13 times he voted with his party to make it more difficult to obtain an abortion, as proof that his opponent will not stand up to his party to oppose a national abortion ban.
But Mr. Molinaro has repeatedly said that he does oppose such a ban. In his ads, he bashes Mr. Riley and his party for the flood of undocumented immigrants who have cost New York state taxpayers $2.4 billion this year alone.
What else to know: Embracing Mr. Trump
During the campaign, Mr. Molinaro has frequently diverged from his reputation as a centrist Republican, never more so than last month when he shared a conspiracy theory popularized by Mr. Trump that claimed that Haitian immigrants in Ohio were eating pet dogs and cats. Since then, he has stood by the debunked claim, repeatedly refusing to apologize.
Mr. Molinaro, who once publicly sought to distance himself from the former president, has endorsed Mr. Trump.
New York’s 22nd District
Who’s running?
Representative Brandon Williams, a conservative freshman Republican who has celebrated the overturning of Roe v. Wade, is widely considered the most vulnerable sitting congressman in the country.
He will face John Mannion, an unflashy moderate Democrat who spent decades teaching high school biology before being elected to the State Senate in 2020.
What’s shaping the race?
Redistricting helped make this Central New York district, which includes Syracuse and Utica, the Democrats’ best opportunity in the nation for a pickup.
In 2020, President Biden scored a seven-point victory over Mr. Trump; under the new contours, Mr. Biden would have won by 11 points — a difficult margin for any Republican to overcome, let alone a conservative like Mr. Williams.
What else to know: Accusations of workplace harassment
Both candidates have been the subject of political ads accusing them of mistreating their staffs.
During the primary, three former staffers accused Mr. Mannion of creating a hostile workplace. He was later cleared of the allegations by the New York State Senate.
Mr. Williams was caught on camera berating a former campaign manager in a profanity-laced tirade at a holiday party last year. He later said that two of his staffers had tried to blackmail him by threatening to reveal sensitive information about his daughter — a charge the staffers deny.
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