Former president Donald Trump’s mass deportation plan has been a pillar of his candidacy. Just last week during a rally in the city of Aurora, Colorado, he christened the operation as “Operation Aurora”, a rehash of the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, for which he plans to use “elite squads” from federal agencies like Border Patrol and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to actively pursue and remove such undocumented immigrants.
But besides the constitutional and humanitarian implications of such a plan, little has been researched about the financial implications it would entail for the country. A new analysis by CBS News, however, digs deep into the numbers, estimating that deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants (based on the 2022 American Community Survey) would cost the U.S. between $160 billion and $216 billion over a four-year presidency.
In fact, even if Congress were to approve such a number, deporting every undocumented immigrant living in the U.S. would take far longer than four years, the analysis finds.
The study revealed that apprehending and deporting just one million individuals would cost about $20 billion as immigration enforcement funding would need to increase significantly, requiring approval from Congress:
“Over the last five fiscal years, it cost an estimated average of $19,599 to deport one person. That figure is based on budget allocations for each step of the deportation process: the apprehension of an undocumented immigrant living in the U.S., detention, the immigration court process and transport out of the country.”
Economists consulted by CBS News also warned of the broader economic impact of mass deportations, as studies have shown that removing undocumented workers from the labor market would not only lead to job losses for U.S.-born workers but also reduce the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). A report from the Peterson Institute for International Economics suggests that deporting over 1 million undocumented immigrants could reduce U.S. employment by 0.8%, while a larger deportation effort could reduce it by over 5%.
As undocumented immigrants contribute significantly to federal, state, and local taxes, paying an estimated $96.7 billion annually, their removal could also disrupt local economies and affect millions of U.S. citizens living in mixed-status families.
To top it all off, the logistical implications of mass deportations could be devastating. The current immigration court system, already backlogged with 3.7 million cases, would face further delays if tasked with handling 11 million new deportation cases and courts would require nearly doubling their current number of judges to address the existing backlog, let alone process new cases.
During his presidency, Trump deported around 325,000 undocumented immigrants, far short of his initial 2016 campaign promise.
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