Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver could tip the scales in the tight 2024 presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump by drawing votes in battleground states with razor-thin margins.
Oliver, who is on the ballot in 47 states and a registered write-in in three, is polling around 1 percent, which could be influential this election given the extremely narrow margins between Harris and Trump. However, it is important to note that it’s unclear whether all Oliver voters would have otherwise backed Harris, Trump, or opted not to vote at all.
A Pew Research Center survey of 5,110 adults, conducted between September 30 and October 6, found Harris narrowly leading Trump, 48 percent to 47 percent, with third-party candidates garnering 5 percent of the vote.
When forced to choose between Harris and Trump, respondents’ initially supporting third-party candidates are split: 36 percent favor Harris, 35 percent back Trump, and about 30 percent decline to answer. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points. Other national polls, show a smaller margin for third-party candidates.
Third-party candidates have been called out by Republicans and Democrats over the years for swaying the election by voting for candidates who will not win. To this, Oliver told Newsweek in an email on Friday, “To those in one party or the other who see us as spoilers, I say, the two-party system itself is spoiled rotten. But we welcome being a disruptor to the political binary.”
Newsweek has reached out to Harris’ and Trump’s campaign for comment via email on Friday.
Oliver, 39, is the youngest candidate in the race, having told Newsweek in an exclusive interview this June, “It’s time for our generation to really rise up.”
Here’s how Oliver is faring in key swing state races, and what that could mean for Harris and Trump.
Arizona
A New York Times/Siena College poll of 808 likely voters in Arizona found Trump leading Harris, but both dropping their share of the vote when third-party candidates like Oliver are included.
The poll, conducted between October 7 and 10, shows Trump with 51 percent of the vote, compared to Harris’ 46 percent. However, with third-party candidates factored in, Trump lowers to 50 percent and Harris to 45 percent, while Oliver captures less than 1 percent, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein takes 1 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Georgia
A Georgia native, Oliver voted for himself in the Peach State earlier this week. Recent polls show he is garnering around 1 percent support in his home state.
A Quinnipiac University poll of 1,328 likely voters conducted from October 10 to October 14 found Trump with a 7-point lead in the state, and Oliver and Stein each garnering 1 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
Oliver previously ran for Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat in 2022, earning 2.1 percent of the vote, which forced a runoff between Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker, as neither secured a majority. Warnock went on to win the December runoff with 51 percent of the vote, while Walker received 48.6 percent.
Michigan
Oliver appears to maintain his 1 percent in Michigan, too. A Quinnipiac University poll of 1,007 likely Michigan voters shows Trump leading with 50 percent and Harris with 47 percent, while Oliver garners 1 percent support. With a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, Oliver’s support could prove influential in the state.
Nevada
Oliver performs below his average among Nevadan voters, with a New York Times/ Siena College poll of 677 registered voters surveyed between August 12 and 15, finding his support at less than 1 percent. That same poll found Trump leading Harris by 3 percentage points, 45 percent to 42 percent, which is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
North Carolina
In North Carolina, Oliver garners 1 percent of support. A Quinnipiac University poll of 1,031 likely voters conducted from October 10 to 14, found Oliver with 1 percent support, Harris at 49 percent, and Trump at 47 percent. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup between Harris and Trump, Harris’ lead widened to 50 percent over Trump’s 47 percent.
This could mean that Oliver’s supporters in North Carolina may lean slightly toward Harris, though it’s important to note that 1 percent were undecided, and another 1 percent refused to answer, leaving the result inconclusive. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
Pennsylvania
The Keystone State is pivotal in the presidential race, as the winner of Pennsylvania and its 19 Electoral votes—more than any other swing state—could determine the outcome of the 2024 election.
Oliver is on the ballot in the state, telling Newsweek in an email on Friday, “We are happy to provide Pennsylvania voters an option outside of a two-party system that more and more ignores individual liberty.”
A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of 857 likely voters in the state found Harris leading Trump, but both dropping their share of the vote when third-party candidates like Oliver are included.
The poll, conducted between October 7 and 10, shows Harris with 50 percent of the vote, compared to Trump’s 47 percent. However, with third-party candidates factored in, Harris drops to 49 percent and Trump to 45 percent, while Oliver captures less than 1 percent, and Stein takes 1 percent. Harris’ lead is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
A recent Quinnipiac University poll conducted from October 3 to 7, among 1,412 likely voters found Stein and Oliver each receiving 1 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania, with Harris 49 percent and Trump 46 percent.
In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup between only the Democratic and Republican nominees, Harris maintained 49 percent support, while Trump edged closer with 47 percent, suggesting that more third-party candidates may be supporting Trump in the state.
Among independents, who make up 23 percent of respondents, 43 percent support Harris, while 47 percent back Trump, and 3 percent support third-party candidates, according to the poll. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
Wisconsin
A Quinnipiac University poll of 1,073 likely voters in the state, conducted between October 3 and 7, found Trump leading Harris, 48 to 46 percent, with Stein and Oliver each securing 1 percent support.
The margin between the Republican and Democratic nominees stays the same if third-party candidates are excluded, with Trump receiving 49 percent of the vote and Harris 47 percent. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Another poll found similar results. A Marquette Law School poll of 882 registered voters conducted between September 18 and 26, found Oliver receiving 1 percent of the vote, and Harris leading by 4 percentage points, 48 percent to Trump’s 44 percent. This lead is within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
The post How Libertarian Chase Oliver May Impact Trump, Harris Race in Swing States appeared first on Newsweek.
