LAS VEGAS — Shannon Bilbray Axelrod, a Democratic member of the Nevada Assembly, stood at the head of a conference table Wednesday night, thanking volunteers for their hard work. But the volunteers weren’t there to boost her campaign for Clark County commissioner.
They were urging voters to support “Question 6,” a measure farther down the ballot that would enshrine the right to an abortion in the state constitution.
The effort to pass Question 6 is not explicitly tied to a political party or campaign, but Axelrod was confident the measure could boost her own bid in a Democratic-leaning county.
“They have to go all the way down the ballot” to get to Question 6, Axelrod said. “So that’s helpful.”
But it remains a major question whether Axelrod and other Democratic candidates in battleground states across the country will be able to ride these abortion-related initiatives to victory in next month’s election as many in the party have hoped.
Constitutional amendments to expand or protect abortion access will be put in the hands of voters this fall in 10 states, including the presidential battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada and the Senate battlegrounds of Montana and Florida.
Polls show that the ballot measures are broadly popular in many of the states, findings that are in line with the success similar initiatives have had in other areas of the county following the backlash to the U.S. Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade in 2022.
But the surveys also reveal a noticeable gap in support between the pro-abortion rights amendments and the Democratic presidential and Senate candidates who are campaigning on a pro-abortion rights platform.
With the future of abortion access appearing directly on the ballot, some voters — particularly Republicans and independents — have effectively divorced the issue from the candidates in the other races they will decide on.
“It’s almost like ‘Choose Your Own Adventure,’” said Mike Noble, CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, a nonpartisan polling and research firm that focuses on Nevada, Arizona and other Southwestern states.
Noble said voters in states like Arizona and Nevada may feel comfortable supporting a ballot measure protecting abortion rights while also allowing other key issues — such as the economy and immigration — to dictate their choice in other big races.
“People are going to be able to vote on these measures — for abortion or against abortion — but their presence on the ballot allows them to segregate the issue from their choice for Senate or president,” Noble said.
Pro-abortion rights ballot measures won in every state where they appeared on the ballot, including conservative-leaning ones, in the 2022 and 2023 elections. But in a presidential election cycle that will feature much higher voter engagement and turnout, Republicans say that the effect of the amendments will be diminished.
“I think in a midterm election, an abortion initiative could definitely be a motivating factor for turnout. In a presidential, not so much,” Montana GOP Sen. Steve Daines, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told NBC News. “I think the voters are highly motivated right now, whether you’re a Democrat or Republican, to show up, first and foremost, to vote on the presidential ballot and then go down-ballot from there.”
Even if their candidates haven’t reached the polling highs of the ballot measures, Democrats still view them as net positives for members of their party who have made abortion rights a central tenet of their campaigns.
“This ballot initiative around abortion is also something that’s bringing new voters that didn’t participate two years ago that will be voting for Democrats this election,” Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha said, referring to the Nevada measure.
Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom, the coalition backing Question 6, aims to knock on 1 million doors and make 1.5 million phone calls by Election Day, according to the coalition’s campaign manager, Tova Yampolsky.
“I think it will get people out to vote for pro-choice people,” said Jeri Burton, director of membership and volunteers for the National Organization for Women’s Nevada chapter, which hosted the recent volunteer event and has endorsed candidates up and down the ballot.
A Fox News poll from August showed that a whopping 75% of registered voters supported passage of the Nevada amendment, with only 21% saying they opposed it. More than half of self-identified Republicans and more than three-quarters of self-identified independents said they would vote in favor on the measure.
In Nevada’s Senate race, however, polls have shown Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen with a lead over Republican Sam Brown that is smaller, though still outside the margin of error. And the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump there is neck and neck.
Similarly in Arizona, a proposed amendment to enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution has clear majority support. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month found that 58% of likely voters said they supported the amendment, with 35% saying they opposed it. Broken down by party, 63% of self-identified independents and 30% of self-identified Republicans said they backed it.
The same poll found Trump leading Harris among likely voters 50% to 45%, within the margin of error. And in the Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego was ahead of Republican Kari Lake 49% to 43%, also within the margin of error. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Arizona last month produced similar results.
“There are other issues that are just as, or just more important to people right now,” Noble said. “Abortion is big, but when it comes to putting food on the table or affording a home, the pocketbook issues are hard to surpass.”
In Florida, a proposed abortion-related amendment is also outperforming Democratic candidates in the polls, though by smaller margins and with a lower ceiling of support.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released this week found that 46% of likely voters supported the amendment, while 38% said they opposed it. Just over a quarter of self-identified Republicans said they were in favor of the measure.
Other polls from August and September showed the ballot measure receiving majority support, thought it will need to clear a 60% threshold to pass in Florida.
The New York Times/Siena survey showed Trump leading Harris among likely voters 55% to 41% and Republican Sen. Rick Scott ahead of former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 49% to 40% in the Senate race.
In Montana, there’s little evidence that the presence of an abortion rights amendment has had a major effect on the race between three-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy.
There has been sparse polling on the ballot measure there, but polling in the Senate race has largely shown Sheehy with an advantage — even though Tester, like other Democrats, has leaned heavily into reproductive rights as a campaign issue.
A New York Times/Siena College poll this week showed Sheehy leading Tester 52% to 44% among likely voters, a result that was within the survey’s margin of error but also lines up with other public surveys.
Chuck Denowh, a former executive director of the Montana Republican Party, acknowledged that the ballot measure “will have an impact” on the Senate race and help drive turnout for Democrats. But he was still confident that Sheehy is in a strong position to win.
“A handful more votes because of this abortion initiative certainly helps Tester, but it won’t pull him over the top,” Denowh said.
The ruby-red state is safe territory for Trump in the presidential race.
Meanwhile, polling in other conservative states where a proposed amendment enshrining abortion rights is on the November ballot doesn’t appear to show a significant boost for Democrats up and down the ticket.
For example, in Missouri, public polling indicates broad support for a constitutional amendment to enshrine abortion rights, while Republican Sen. Josh Hawley and Trump hold strong leads in their races.
Democrats acknowledge that such ballot measures are typically more popular than their candidates.
“In every election I’ve ever worked in, you always see the ballot initiatives overperforming politicians by certain margins,” said Rocha, the Democratic strategist. “Lots of politicians are not popular.”
Bridget Bowman reported from Las Vegas; Adam Edelman reported from New York.
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