To hear former Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland tell it, electing him to the United States Senate would pull the chamber from the brink of constant partisan crisis and nudge it toward consensus on the biggest issues facing the country.
Mr. Hogan, a center-leaning Republican who was elected twice in deep blue Maryland, argues he could occupy the space in the Senate currently held by the retiring Senator Joe Manchin III, independent of West Virginia, a swing vote who has frustrated both parties while wielding outsize influence and delivering major projects to his home state.
“I’m going to be the key guy in the middle that kind of keeps things from going off the rails and being crazy,” Mr. Hogan said of how he would approach being in Congress.
Angela Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County executive who is running against Mr. Hogan for Maryland’s open Senate seat, describes the race in similarly grandiose terms but warns voters not to be fooled by her opponent’s pledges of independence from his fellow Republicans. Electing Mr. Hogan would hand control of the chamber to the Republicans, and, she argues, make it easier for the G.O.P. to install conservative judges and dictate a right-wing legislative agenda.
“The question is not whether or not we like Larry Hogan,” Ms. Alsobrooks recently told a crowd at a rally in Columbia, Md. “It’s not even whether or not it was a good idea to vote for him for governor. The question we are answering is who should have the 51st vote in the Senate.”
The race to replace Senator Ben Cardin, a Democrat who is retiring after three terms, is the first truly competitive Senate race in decades in the reliably liberal state of Maryland. The last Republican to hold a Senate seat here was Charles Mathias Jr., who served from 1969 to 1987 and, not unlike Mr. Hogan, was known for fighting against the right wing of his party.
It has made for an increasingly hostile campaign between two candidates who came up through Maryland politics together and not long ago were allies, working together extensively, praising each other and even attending each other’s inaugurations.
They are set to meet Thursday for their only debate of the race at a time when the contest has veered decidedly negative, with Mr. Hogan dredging up unflattering financial issues to attack Ms. Alsobrooks, and Ms. Alsobrooks characterizing Mr. Hogan as a puppet and pawn of Republican leaders.
Recent polling has showed Ms. Alsobrooks in the lead. Though one survey in mid-August indicated the race was tied, every poll since then has found her comfortably ahead, including one from the University of Maryland-Baltimore County on Wednesday that had Ms. Alsobrooks with a nine percentage point lead.
As the underdog, there is much at stake in the debate for Mr. Hogan, who needs to convince about one-third of the state’s Democrats to choose an independent-minded Republican over their own party controlling the Senate.
Ms. Alsobrooks, by contrast, does not need to convince a single Republican to vote for her to win.
The race has proved to be among the most expensive in the country, with both parties pumping in tens of millions of dollars. Mr. Hogan’s persistent popularity has forced Democrats to spend heavily in what should be a stronghold for their party, diverting funds from other competitive races, such as Ohio and Montana, in a year in which their Senate majority is at stake.
Mr. Hogan has centered his campaign around his rejection of former President Donald J. Trump’s divisive brand of politics. He declined twice to vote for Mr. Trump, and while other Republicans across the country have clamored for the former president’s approval, Mr. Hogan rejected his backing.
“I turned it down, actually,” he says of Mr. Trump’s endorsement.
The Trump campaign has, in turn, rejected Mr. Hogan, potentially helping the former governor in his bid to create distance between himself and Mr. Trump. In May, as Republicans around the country decried Mr. Trump’s conviction in New York for falsifying documents, Mr. Hogan instead issued a statement urging Americans to “respect the verdict and the legal process.” Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser to Mr. Trump, responded on social media, writing, “You just ended your campaign.”
To Maryland voters like Mark Herro, 68, who lives in a large retirement community in Silver Spring, Mr. Hogan represents a more attractive version of the G.O.P. than Mr. Trump.
Mr. Herro is considering voting for Vice President Kamala Harris for president, he said, but has made up his mind in favor of Mr. Hogan for Senate, recalling his tenure as governor fondly. He recalled how Mr. Hogan overcame cancer while in office, and was quick to take the coronavirus pandemic seriously.
“He was fantastic during the Covid mess,” said Mr. Herro, who was wearing a disposable medical mask. “He’s got my vote for Senate easily.”
Ms. Alsobrooks’s campaign has worked to peel split-ticket voters away from Mr. Hogan.
On Tuesday, her campaign released a new ad highlighting Hogan voters who have switched to Ms. Alsobrooks and say they cannot risk Republican control of the Senate.
On a recent press call, Democratic lawmakers decried the Republicans who have donated money to help Mr. Hogan, including Harlan Crow, a benefactor of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas.
“These contributors understand that today politics is a team sport,” said Mr. Cardin, who has endorsed Ms. Alsobrooks. He added: “They know Larry Hogan is on that team.”
The race has also had a twist in recent weeks. Ms. Alsobrooks ran into tax trouble after CNN reported she improperly benefited from tax deductions in D.C. and Maryland. Ms. Alsobrooks now owes more than $47,000 in taxes and interest to the D.C. government.
Much of the problem stems from her purchase of a house in D.C. that was previously owned by her grandmother and came with tax breaks attached. Ms. Alsobrooks’s campaign said she was unaware she was receiving the tax breaks, and is now working to pay the money back.
But mortgage documents obtained by The New York Times, show that Ms. Alsobrooks attested when she purchased the property in D.C. that she would live in it for at least a year. She never did so and instead used it as a rental property, making her ineligible for the tax breaks she received.
“As soon as Angela was made aware of these tax credits, which she never applied for, she took immediate action,” said Connor Lounsbury, a senior adviser to Ms. Alsobrooks. “She has now received the bill from D.C. and is working to pay it.” He accused Mr. Hogan, and his conservative allies who have run attack ads about the improper tax credits, of lodging a “false attack.”
In her ads and on the campaign trial, Ms. Alsobrooks often references Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, and other nationally known Republicans such as Senator Ted Cruz of Texas whom she says would be empowered by a Hogan victory.
“Mitch McConnell handpicked Larry Hogan for a reason,” she told a crowd recently. “It was the get of the year, his top recruit, because Larry Hogan, McConnell and Donald Trump share something in common — that is that they desire to have the Republicans be in control of the Senate.”
The increasingly tense tone is striking for two Maryland politicians who were once allies.
Mr. Hogan grew up in Prince George’s County, and the two have run in the same political circles. They have often praised each other, but now say that the stakes are too high to dwell on personal relationships.
“When I was elected county executive, my inaugural was the only one he attended,” Ms. Alsobrooks said in an interview. “So this is not about the person. This race is about policies and principles and a vision for the state and for the country.”
Democrats argue that swapping Ms. Harris for President Biden at the top of their ticket has benefited Ms. Alsobrooks, bringing an infusion of enthusiasm that is driving more of her supporters to the polls.
One of them is Alison Reeder, 50, of Baltimore.
“I’m feeling the female — just the non-old white man energy,” Ms. Reeder said recently at a bar in the waterfront Federal Hill neighborhood, where supporters of Ms. Alsobrooks packed the room and spilled out onto the sidewalk. “The energy is super high about the race right now. It’s time for something new.”
In Washington, Democrats say they are confident that Maryland will revert to its longstanding voting patterns and that there will be no Republican version of Mr. Manchin walking the halls of the Senate next year.
“Senator Alsobrooks is running a great race,” Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, who is the majority leader, put it bluntly. “She’s going to win, plain and simple.”
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