Week 6 of the 2024 college football season brought a ton of upheaval.
As a result, the 2024 College Football Playoff odds look a lot different than they did a week ago. After undefeated starts to the year by SEC powers Alabama, Tennessee, and Missouri, the Tide, Volunteers and Tigers all lost.
While Mizzou was actually the betting underdog on the road against Texas A&M, no one outside of Nashville and Fayetteville, Arkansas, saw either Bama (a 22.5-point favorite at Vanderbilt) or Tennessee (a 14.5.-point favorite against the Razorbacks) slipping up this weekend.
With all those losses by previously undefeated, top-10 teams — not to mention then-No. 10 Michigan falling to 4-2 with a loss to Washington and USC plummeting from No. 11 to unranked after a loss to Minnesota — a number of fanbases nationwide suddenly have much more realistic CFP hopes.
Below are the odds to make the expanded 12-team field as of Tuesday, October 8. The Week 7 slate ahead kicks off the “second half” of the season, so buckle up for six more weeks of chaos as teams jockey for positioning for the 2024 CFP.
Latest Betting Odds to Reach 2024 CFP
College Football Playoff Betting Odds, Analysis
Seven teams are currently considered locks (-250 or shorter) to at least reach the 12-team CFP:
- Ohio State
- Texas
- Oregon
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Miami
- Penn State
Of those seven, five have difficult remaining schedules.
The Buckeyes and Crimson Tide each still have to play four teams that are currently ranked in the AP Top 25.
Meanwhile, Texas, Georgia and Oregon all have three ranked opponents remaining,
Miami does not face another ranked team this year. The Hurricanes also do not face any of the teams that are currently undefeated in the ACC, as they do not play Clemson, SMU, UVA, or Pittsburgh.
Following their Week 7 bye, the Hurricanes have arguably their toughest remaining test of the year at Louisville in Week 8. The unranked Cardinals are coming off back-to-back losses after an impressive 3-0 start vaulted them to No. 15 in the nation.
This weekend, Penn State has a tough trip to USC, but the Trojans are no longer in the top 25 following losses to Michigan and Minnesota. The Nittany Lions also host No. 2 Ohio State on November 2, but as of Week 7, the Buckeyes are Penn State’s only remaining ranked foe.
Best Value Bets to Reach College Football Playoff
With just seven teams heavily favored to reach the CFP, a number of contenders are fighting to earn five playoff spots that should up for grabs through the final week of the season.
Below are three schools that currently have tempting odds to secure a berth in the College Football Playoff.
Clemson Tigers (best available odds: -110 at DK, FD, Caesars)
Before this season started, it was hard to imagine the ACC getting multiple teams in the CFP. After Clemson lost to Georgia 34-3 in its season opener, the ACC looked even more like a one-bid conference.
But entering Week 7, it looks increasingly likely that this year’s playoff field will feature both Miami and Clemson, barring one or both suffering a massive upset loss.
The Tigers defense remained elite last season in a down year by this program’s standards, and it is once again loaded with NFL talent. Meanwhile, the Clemson offense looks the best it has at QB, RB, WR and OL since Trevor Lawrence’s final season as a Tiger.
Don’t be surprised if Clemson joins Miami in this year’s CFP, especially if the top teams in the SEC continue to beat each other up.
Boise State Broncos (best available odds: +150 at DraftKings)
Star RB Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos are well on their way to securing the CFP spot that is guaranteed to go to the highest ranked team outside of the Power Four conferences.
Jeanty has emerged as the Heisman Trophy favorite at the midway point of the season (he’s currently +225 at DraftKings, +240 at FanDuel and +270 at Caesars) with one dominant performance after another (including a 192-yard, 3-TD day against Oregon in a 37-34 loss). Boise State, which is currently No. 17 in the country, appears poised to roll through the Mountain West as long as it can get by UNLV on Oct. 25.
The Rebels are 4-1 and coming off their first loss of the year last Friday night against Syracuse, but they are just No. 67, according to ESPN’s SP+ metric, and no one else on SP+ No. 34 Boise State’s schedule is in the top 70, per SP+, as of October 8.
The Broncos have scored at least 45 points in four of five games so far this year, and they hung 34 on Oregon in Eugene. Even if the Boise State defense remains beatable, it’s hard to shake the feeling that an injury to Jeanty is the only thing that could keep this team out of the CFP.
If you have your eye on Boise, be sure to bet on this team to make the playoff before it takes on UNLV on Oct. 25, because a victory in that game would likely shorten this team’s odds dramatically.
Utah Utes (best available odds: +310 at FanDuel)
This summer, the Utes were among the preseason favorites in the Big 12 in their first year in the conference. But following an early-season injury to seventh-year QB Cam Rising’s throwing hand and a 23-10 home loss to Arizona on Sept. 28, Utah now has the third-shortest odds in the conference behind Iowa State and Kansas State.
Obviously, the glass-half-full view of Utah is based on the assumption that Rising gets back under center. Whether that happens remains one of the biggest mysteries in college football. However, even if Rising spends the rest of the year inactive, freshman Isaac Wilson could keep this team in every game if he can avoid turnovers.
Banking on Utah requires a leap of faith in Rising’s recovery, but Utah’s chances in the Big 12 are good enough right now to justify a flier on this team at 3-to-1 odds, which will drop dramatically if Rising does return soon.
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