After days of sharp debate at the top levels of government, Iran’s senior military commanders prevailed, and almost 200 ballistic missiles were sent speeding toward the heart of Israel.
The direct military strike on Tuesday came after senior military commanders of the Revolutionary Guards Corps convinced the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that it was the only course of action if Iran wanted to appear strong, according to three Iranian officials.
During the surprise attack, Iran launched about 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, the Israel military said. Some landed, but most were intercepted, Israel said.
But the Iranian military has also prepared hundreds of missiles to launch from western borders should Israel or its top ally, the United States, strike back, two members of the Revolutionary Guards familiar with the planning said.
”If the Zionist regime reacts to Iran’s operation it will face more fierce attacks,” said the Revolutionary Guards said in a statement
The statement said the missiles had been launched to retaliate for Israel’s assassination last week of Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group. Mr. Nasrallah was the most powerful figure in Iran’s “axis of resistance” — how it refers to its regional alliance of militants — and a close confidant of Mr. Khamenei.
The attack was also intended to avenge the recent assassinations of the political leader of Hamas, the Gaza Strip militant group, and of a top Iranian commander who was with Mr. Nasrallah at the time, the statement said.
Iran’s new president, Massoud Pezeshkian, had been among those urging restraint, but on Tuesday he said the missile strike was a legitimate act of self-defense. He warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel that “Iran is not seeking war but it will stand firmly against any threats.”
He added: “This is only a small glimpse of our powers. Do not enter into a war with Iran.”
For nearly a year, since the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel, Hezbollah and Israel have been embroiled in tit-for-tat attacks. The hostilities started after the Lebanese militants began launching rockets across the border in a show of support for Hamas. In recent days, as Israel intensified its assault on Hezbollah, it was unclear how — or if — its Iran, its patron, would respond.
To some analysts, early comments from Iranian leaders, including the supreme leader, suggested that it might not do so, at least directly, lest it find itself in a full-scale war with Israel.
Privately, Mr. Pezeshkian was urging caution, Iranian officials said, warning that Israel was trying to ensnare Iran into a wider conflict. And publicly, the new president was sounding a new tone. Just days before Mr. Nasrallah was assassinated, he had spoken before the United Nations of his desire to defuse tensions.
Iranian conservatives attacked the president and the government in a harsh campaign on social media and Iranian media, saying their calls for restraint were tantamount to treason.
Tuesday’s ballistic missile assault on Israel made clear which side of the debate had won, at least for the moment.
Iran’s senior military commanders had concluded that it was essential to establish deterrence against Israel — and quickly — to turn or at least slow the tide of its onslaught on Hezbollah. Still more important, they argued, Iran needed to act to prevent Israel from turning its attention toward Tehran.
The missiles were launched from Revolutionary Guards aerospace bases in Karaj, Kermanshah and the province of Azerbaijan, the Iranian officials said. They asked that their names not be published because they were not authorized to speak on the record.
The Iranians also wanted to restore credibility with members of the “axis of resistance,” and reverse any perception that Iran or its regional allies were weak.
Ali Vaez, Iran director for the International Crisis Group, said before the missile strike that in Iran, the consensus had moved toward responding to Israel “in order to kill the momentum that Israel has been able to gain for the past few days.”
But the decision could backfire, he said.
“A unilateral Iranian response is still extremely risky because it would provide justification for Israel to strike back on Iran now that it’s much exposed because Hezbollah is on its knees,” Mr. Vaez said. “If Iranians strike Israel it indicates that they calculated the cost of inaction outweighs the risks of taking action against Israel.”
A senior aide to Mr. Pezeshkian said in a telephone interview before the missile attack that whatever the president’s private reservations about war with Israel, he would publicly support any decision Mr. Khamenei made — as he did on Tuesday,
Iran’s shift in strategy, officials said, stemmed from a reckoning among its leaders, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
They decided that Iran had miscalculated by not responding to the killing of the Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in July, and the more recent killing of the top Iranian commander, Gen. Abbas Nilforoushan,
The restraint, they believed, had been misunderstood as weakness. Mr. Araghchi has told other officials that western countries had duped Iran when they asked it to exercise restraint and allow for a cease-fire to be negotiated in Gaza, the three officials said.
Mr. Khamenei will lead the Friday Prayer in Tehran this week and deliver a sermon that is expected to set the tone for what will come next, Iranian media reported. Mr. Khamenei usually leads the Friday Prayer only in extraordinary circumstances tied to national security. His last was in 2020 in the aftermath of the U.S. assassination of Qassim Suleimani, a top general revered by Iranians.
After the strikes on Israel, supporters of the government chanted praises to God and posted messages on social media. Crowds gathered outside Tehran University waving Iranian and Palestinian flags and holding signs. “The time for revenge has arrived,” some read, state television reported.
Hamidreza Alimi, one conservative supporter of the government, offered an argument for the missile strike on social media.
“Sometimes you have to go to war to establish peace, you have to fight to have peace of mind,” he said.
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