Donald Trump’s Candidates Keep Delivering…for Democrats

In 2022, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell mused about “candidate quality” when talking about why Republicans might not win the upper chamber. Those two words broadly summed up the problem that’s often plagued MAGA candidates, who can appear unvetted, unhinged, and simply disconnected from the political reality of the election cycle. Back then, you had Donald Trump–endorsed candidates like Herschel Walker, Mehmet Oz, and Blake Masters losing key Senate races in battleground states of Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. Meanwhile, in the latter two states, Trump picks like Doug Mastriano and Kari Lake failed to win gubernatorial races.

But one quality that MAGA candidates tend to have is fealty to Trump. And once you’ve sworn fealty to Trump, it’s very hard to lose his endorsement. Just look at North Carolina, where self-proclaimed “Black Nazi” and Nude Africa user Mark Robinson still hasn’t lost Trump’s support, despite being abandoned by much of his campaign staff. (Robinson has denied writing comments on Nude Africa calling himself a Black Nazi.) Sure, Trump may not hit the trail alongside Robinson—except by way of a cardboard cutout—but he reportedly couldn’t be persuaded by Republican calls to try and push him out.

The 2024 Senate map has always looked rough for Democrats, who have to defend seats in ruby red states like Ohio (Sherrod Brown) and Montana (Jon Tester), as well as West Virginia, which won’t have Joe Manchin on the ballot and is sure to fall into Republican hands. They also have tough contests in swing states like Arizona (Ruben Gallego), Michigan (Elissa Slotkin), Nevada (Jacky Rosen), Wisconsin (Tammy Baldwin), and Pennsylvania (Bob Casey). And then there were all those governorships, like in North Carolina, which hasn’t gone Democratic in the presidential since 2008, and swingy New Hampshire. But luckily for Democrats Trumpism is still the driving force of this Republican Party.

One of the many truisms of MAGA is that it doesn’t scale; only Trump can do it. When other candidates do MAGA they tend to be wildly unpopular; mini Trump JD Vance has a favorability rating that’s underwater by 11 points, according to 538. The Ohio senator, just like Ron DeSantis before him, shows that only Trump can do Trump. Speaking of Ohio, Trump is leading Kamala Harris 50% to 44%, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, while the Senate candidate he endorsed, Bernie Moreno, trails by four points.

Let’s be clear: Republicans can still win Ohio. But they’d presumably be in a lot better shape with a candidate who, while appealing to the right-wing base, can potentially turn off swing voters. Moreno recently came under fire after characterizing “many suburban women as ‘single-issue voters’ on abortion rights, suggesting that older women should not care about abortion because they were too old to have children,” according to the Times. Nikki Haley, for one, suggested Moreno’s comments were bad politics, asking “Are you trying to lose the election?”

Moreno’s business dealings have also come under scrutiny. “I’ve sold all my operating businesses,” Moreno told Statehouse News in November 2023, claiming he wanted to go to Washington, DC, “free of any conflicts of interest.” But NBC News reported that Moreno recently filed a personal financial disclosure statement identifying “himself as a manager of two companies—including a realty business that he lists as an asset—that, according to public records, are developing a Mercedes-Benz dealership.” (Moreno described himself as an investor in the project, which would be run by his son.) Let’s not forget Moreno, who, the AP notes, “shifted from a public supporter of [LGBTQ+] rights to a hard-line opponent,” was also linked this cycle to an adult gay hookup listing; a former intern later claimed it was a prank.

Also, Moreno has participated in the racist smearing of Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, posting on September 9: “Kamala Harris and Sherrod Brown are responsible for flooding Springfield, Ohio with thousands of illegal Haitians who are sucking up social services and even reportedly killing and eating pets. We need to deport illegals, not invite them to wreak havoc on our communities.” The next day on the debate stage, Trump spread the lie about Haitian immigrants “eating the pets” to 67 million Americans.

Because money is always an issue, and perhaps even more so in 2024 given that the Republican presidential nominee spent more than $100 million of campaign cash on legal costs, as the Times reported in March. That may make self-funding candidates particularly attractive to McConnell. However, two of the GOP’s biggest self-funders in Senate races this cycle reportedly don’t live in the states they’re running in. David McCormick is running in Pennsylvania despite the AP reporting that he lives in Westport, Connecticut, while Wisconsin candidate Eric Hovde appears to spend most of his time in Laguna Beach, California, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. (Hovde has insisted that his home is in Wisconsin. McCormick’s spokesperson told the AP that Pittsburgh has been his home for the last 10 years.)

Since fealty to Trump is the only barrier to entry when it comes to MAGA, it should come as no surprise that some candidates have gone just a little overboard. Look no further than Kari Lake, who once vacuumed a rug that Trump was going to stand on—an image that is forever seared into my brain. Lake, who had claimed to be governor of Arizona despite losing the job to Katie Hobbs in 2022, decided to run for Senate this cycle. She’s trailing Gallego by an average of nearly six points, according to RealClearPolitics, and underperforming Trump, who leads Harris by two.

We are a little more than a month away from Election Day and anxiety is understandably high given the possibility of a would-be autocrat like Trump regaining power, a guy musing about being a “dictator” with the GOP in his thrall. But Democrats are in a far better position than if Republicans had run normal candidates this cycle. MAGA may still work for Trump, but it has historically fared poorly in purple states. Let’s hope that trend continues as the stakes for democracy couldn’t be more clear.