U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Russia is likely to retaliate with greater force against the United States and its coalition partners, possibly with lethal attacks, if they agree to give the Ukrainians permission to employ U.S., British and French-supplied long-range missiles for strikes deep inside Russia, U.S. officials said.
The intelligence assessment, which has not been previously reported, also plays down the effect that the long-range missiles will have on the course of the conflict because the Ukrainians currently have limited numbers of the weapons and it is unclear how many more, if any, the Western allies might provide.
The assessment highlights what intelligence analysts see as the potential risk and uncertain rewards of a high-stakes decision that now rests with President Biden, who met with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine at the White House on Thursday.
The findings may help explain in part why the decision has been so difficult for Mr. Biden to make, and show the internal pressures on him to say no to Mr. Zelensky’s request. U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters and internal deliberations, said it remained unclear what Mr. Biden would decide to do.
Mr. Zelensky has publicly and privately lobbied for the authority to use the missiles to bring the war farther into Russia.
Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, has frequently employed threats to deter the United States and its coalition partners from providing more advanced weapons systems to the Ukrainians.
Critics of Mr. Biden and his advisers say they have been too easily intimidated by Mr. Putin’s hostile rhetoric, and they say that the administration’s incremental approach to arming the Ukrainians has disadvantaged them on the battlefield. Proponents of their approach say that it had largely been successful at averting a violent Russian response, though that may no longer be the case.
British leaders have been less risk averse. They have voiced support for allowing the Ukrainians to use the long-range missiles that they have supplied for strikes deep inside Russia, but they have been waiting for Mr. Biden to take a position on the matter before authorizing strikes since the potential Russian response could have implications for security for the coalition as a whole.
The intelligence assessment describes a range of possible Russian responses to a decision to allow long-range strikes using U.S. and European-supplied missiles — from stepped up acts of arson and sabotage targeting facilities in Europe, to potentially lethal attacks on U.S. and European military bases.
U.S. officials say the G.R.U., Russia’s military intelligence agency, has been responsible for most of the acts of sabotage in Europe that have taken place thus far. If Mr. Putin decides to expand the shadowy campaign in response to the use of U.S. and European missiles deep inside Russia, U.S. officials believe the Russians will continue to do so covertly, rather than conduct overt attacks on U.S. and European facilities and bases, to reduce the risk of a wider conflict.
Mr. Putin’s rhetoric has been especially bellicose in recent days in anticipation of a decision on long-range strikes, and at least some of Mr. Biden’s top advisers believe that he is likely to respond with lethal force if the decision goes Mr. Zelensky’s way.
A White House spokesman did not respond to a request for comment on the assessment. A spokeswoman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
The United States and its coalition partners have provided the Ukrainians with three types of long-range missile systems — American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS; British-made Storm Shadow missiles; and French-supplied SCALP missiles.
Some of these missiles have already been used by the Ukrainians to strike Russian military targets in and around the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014.
Those in the U.S. military and the Biden administration who support the Ukrainians’ use of the missiles for strikes up to 190 miles inside Russia say it would allow them to target more distant Russian bases and ammunition storehouses.
That would make it harder for Russia to supply its forces on the front lines inside Ukraine and potentially help the Ukrainians halt Russian advances. They say it would also demonstrate strong Western support for Ukraine at a moment of uncertainty about its prospects on the battlefield.
But in their assessment, U.S. intelligence agencies express doubt that, even if the Ukrainians were permitted to use the long-range missiles, they would have enough of them to alter the course of the conflict in a fundamental way.
Moreover, after the first strikes, they said, the Russians will likely relocate ammunition depots, command posts, attack helicopters and other vital battlefield functions out of range of the missiles.
At Mr. Biden’s direction, the U.S. military could provide more ATACMS (pronounced “attack ’ems”) to the Ukrainians. But officials say the U.S. military itself has a limited supply of the missiles and needs to keep a reserve for its own potential military needs.
The post U.S. Intelligence Stresses Risks in Allowing Long-Range Strikes by Ukraine appeared first on New York Times.
