Joe Barnes
in Washington
26 September 2024 8:50pm
An $8 billion weapons package for Ukraine won’t make up for Joe Biden’s indecision over granting permission for British Storm Shadow missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia.
The assistance package was announced on Wednesday shortly before the president met Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s leader, for talks on how to end the war with Russia in the White House.
Mr Zelensky has used his visit to the United States this week, including an address at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, to present his “victory plan” to world leaders.
The strategy envisages Ukraine receiving increased military support from its Western allies, including permission to use their long-range missiles in cross-border attacks into Russia.
Mr Biden has resisted calls to give the green light for the Atacms missile system amid concerns it would trigger an escalation from Moscow.
He also holds a de facto veto over Britain’s approval for cross-border Storm Shadow strikes because the missile relies on American targeting systems.
In the absence of looser restrictions to let Kyiv use Western missiles, the White House has shipped the Joint Standoff Weapon (Jsow), a precision-guided glide bomb with a range of about 80 miles, for the first time.
A statement by Mr Biden said the F-16-launched weapon would “enhance Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities”.
But for Ukrainian observers of the war, there is no comparison between Jsow and the prospect of being granted permission to use Storm Shadow to strike military targets in Russia.
Mr Zelensky’s “victory plan” leans heavily on the possibility that Ukrainian forces could destroy Russia’s logistical hubs responsible for delivering the weapons, fuel, water and food for its occupation of almost a fifth of Ukraine.
Homegrown attack drones
While Kyiv has carried out a number of successful operations with its homegrown fleet of one-way attack drones on Russian oil refineries and ammunition dumps, it does not yet have the capacity to scale up those strikes to the levels required to make Russia’s front-line presence untenable.
Even if Jsow is allowed to be dropped on Russia — Mr Biden’s statement does not make reference to the possibility — it does not have the range to cause significant harm.
Because of the density of Moscow’s air defences near the front line, Ukrainian F-16s would need to drop the bombs from a safe distance, effectively meaning Jsow would be able to hit targets just 25 miles inside Russia.
Storm Shadow missiles have a stated range of about 190 miles, but it is understood they can operate at greater distances if required, meaning Ukrainian fighter pilots can launch them from safety while maintaining a deep strike capability.
“We can’t compare… because the bomb that we received can only strike on the range of 100-130 kilometres,” Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre, said.
As part of his presentation to Mr Biden, Mr Zelensky is expected to present the president with a list of targets that Ukraine could hit on Russian soil if the approval is given for cross-border strikes with Western missiles.
If US intelligence is correct that most of those targets have been moved out of range of Storm Shadow and Atacms, Jsow definitely will not be able to hit them.
“From our side, it’s really important to target these logistics points and those logistics chains of operation inside the Russian Federation,” Mr Kuzan said.
“This army needs more equipment, more oil for their weapons and vehicles, they need more and more capabilities to hold this high intensity.
“It would be impossible for the Russian army to move inside Ukraine if we could destroy this logistics operation.”
A comparable success was achieved when Ukraine drove Russian forces out of Kherson, the only regional capital occupied by Moscow, in November 2022.
Using American-provided Himars rocket launchers, Kyiv’s men systematically destroyed supply routes to the town across the Dnipro River.
Facing a Ukrainian counter-offensive without supplies of reinforcements, ammunition, fuel, and even food and water, the Russians decided to withdraw.
The problem facing Ukraine currently is that many logistical hubs sit inside Russia out-of-range of the weapons it is allowed to use in cross-border raids.
With Russia gaining more territory in eastern Ukraine every day, it will be a bitter blow to Mr Zelensky’s plan to end the war if he leaves Washington DC without permission to use Western missiles to carry out his strategy.
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