Voters are going to the polls on Sunday for state elections in Brandenburg, the eastern German state that surrounds Berlin like a doughnut, in a regional contest that could affect the stability of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government.
Mr. Scholz’s government has been struggling in recent months as Germans worry about the poor economy and uncontrolled migration and blame his coalition for not solving these problems.
Both the far right and the far left are expected to make significant gains on Sunday, as was the case with elections in two other eastern German states this month, further weakening the grip of the country’s center-left and center-right parties.
Here is what to know about the vote and its possible ramifications.
Why is this election important?
The election in this relatively small state — involving only about 3 percent of Germany’s voters — is being widely watched, even though it does not directly affect Mr. Scholz’s government.
Brandenburg is one of the last two eastern bastions for the chancellor’s center-left Social Democratic Party. And the state’s incumbent governor, Dietmar Woidke, is one of the most popular Social Democrats in the country.
But the far right Alternative for Germany party (widely known as AfD, its initials in German) and the far-left Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht, or B.S.W., are both poised to make significant gains. Polls suggest that the AfD is set to win a plurality of the seats in the statehouse.
If voters oust Mr. Woidke in favor of the AfD, it would be a symbolic and a practical loss for Mr. Scholz, his party and the government he leads.
Germany’s state leaders meet regularly in Berlin at the Federal Council of the States, where they approve — or block — laws passed by Parliament. If Mr. Woidke were ousted, the Council of the States could become less willing to rubber-stamp laws drafted by the government that includes his party.
Such a loss would sting on a personal level for Mr. Scholz, given that he lives in Brandenburg and maintains his election district there.
It would also not bode well for the national coalition government parties — the Social Democrats, the climate-conscious Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats — with a general election looming.
In a recent poll of German voters, more than half of respondents said they wanted the general election scheduled for September of next year to be held earlier. That sort of angst prompted the Christian Democrats, the mainstream opposition to Mr. Scholz’s party, to meet this past week to agree on their candidate for chancellor — meaning that they will be ready if the government falls and an early election is called.
Why are people moving away from the center?
The AfD in particular has been gaining support for its positions on curbing migration and ending German military support for Ukraine, a cause that is unpopular in eastern Germany.
And because the party has held seats in the state legislature for a decade but has never had a chance to govern, that has given its politicians a wide berth to claim that they could help solve the state’s many problems if only they were let into government.
The B.S.W., led by Sahra Wagenknecht, a former communist, has also been outspoken on the issues of immigration and support for and an end to military support for Ukraine. Although neither of those planks is directly related to state politics, recent polls suggest that the party is to likely garner significantly more than a tenth of the votes.
Yet even if the AfD meets the expectations of the highest projections, it will receive less than a third of the vote, which is not enough to run the government on its own. And every other major party on the ballot has vowed not to work with them.
Why is Brandenburg a special case?
Because it surrounds Berlin, the country’s capital, parts of the state tend to be wealthier and younger than other regions of eastern Germany. By attracting Tesla to build its only European car factory there, Brandenburg has created thousands of well-paying jobs.
But other parts of the state are still reeling from a decline in coal mining, which was a major economic driver in the days before the reunification of East and West Germany in the early 1990s.
Politically, Brandenburg differs from Thuringia and Saxony, the two other eastern states that just voted. Although the far right also does well in Brandenburg, the country’s two largest mainstream parties still command significant support there. Combined, those parties — the Social Democrats and the Christian Conservatives — are posed to get more than 40 percent of the vote.
If they do, and if the Greens eke out the 5 percent needed to return to the legislature as polls suggest they will, the state’s current governing coalition of those three parties could continue.
How close is the race?
Mr. Woidke, the popular incumbent governor, recently announced that he would retire if the AfD received the most votes, even if his party can still lead a government coalition. And Mr. Scholz, fully aware that he and the Berlin government are unpopular, has refrained from campaigning for Mr. Woidke in the state.
The party’s tactics appear to have had some effect. Recent polling shows that although the Social Democrats are still trailing the AfD, the gap has been slowly closing.
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