The debate on Tuesday night stands to be the most important night in Vice President Kamala Harris’s political career. It will offer her her biggest audience yet as the country tries to learn more about what kind of president she would make.
Former President Donald J. Trump enters the debate hoping to turn the page on a tough summer. Ms. Harris has closed the polling gap with him since she replaced President Biden as the Democratic Party’s nominee. Tuesday may be one of Mr. Trump’s best shots to reverse that momentum before Americans begin early voting.
Ms. Harris’s aides and supporters want her to goad the former president into delivering incoherent rants. The Trump team wants him to turn the conversation back to three areas they consider winning terrain: the economy, immigration and global chaos.
With no other debates scheduled between Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump, the face-off figures to be one of the highest-stakes 90 minutes in American politics in generations.
Here is what to watch for:
Can Trump restrain himself?
Seared into the memories of the former president’s advisers is the first debate in 2020, when a sweaty, Covid-addled Mr. Trump ranted and raved, talking over the top of Joseph R. Biden Jr. and turning off so many voters that his polling declined noticeably in its aftermath.
Mr. Trump knows he did poorly in that debate and has acknowledged it privately, according to aides. But Trump advisers still worry that he won’t be able to contain his animosity toward Ms. Harris. The last time Mr. Trump debated a woman it was Hillary Clinton, his 2016 rival. He called her a “nasty woman” and stalked behind her onstage, but his aides thought he was relatively calm by Mr. Trump’s standards.
Ms. Harris’s aides would love for the 2020 version of Mr. Trump to emerge Tuesday night.
Will muted mics make for a muted debate?
Ms. Harris’s aides tried but failed to change the rules of the debate to have the candidates’ microphones kept on even when they are not speaking, in an effort to spur Mr. Trump into interjecting and interrupting when it is not his turn.
In private, Mr. Trump speaks even more contemptuously of Ms. Harris than he does publicly, advisers say. He has talked crudely about her romantic relationships and falsely accused Ms. Harris of only recently embracing her Black identity for political purposes. Mr. Trump’s advisers and allies have counseled him to stay away from personal attacks at the debate, but many worry he won’t be able to hold it in.
How will Harris handle Trump surprises?
The low point of Ms. Harris’s 2019 primary debate performances came when Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii demanded she apologize for her record as a California prosecutor — a moment that Ms. Harris’s campaign had prepared her for but that she still had difficulty responding to effectively.
Since then Ms. Harris has proved adept at delivering set-piece attacks on Mr. Trump but has sometimes shown less dexterity in unscripted moments. She has struggled at times during interviews and in off-the-cuff moments, though she has grown as a political performer since the start of her vice presidency.
Still, debating Mr. Trump is quite different from taking questions from, say, a television anchor. Mr. Trump is an unpredictable television veteran who has demonstrated no respect for established rules of political fair play.
Ms. Harris has so far refused to engage with Mr. Trump’s below-the-belt attacks on her or his remarks about her race and gender. How she parries similar attacks on live TV — challenging him to debate, she memorably said “If you’ve got something to say, say it to my face” — may determine how her performance is viewed.
Since taking over for Mr. Biden, Ms. Harris has built her campaign around a choice between the future (her) and the past (Mr. Trump). The debate may give her an opportunity to show voters not just that contrast, but how she reacts when presented a chance to stand up to a bully.
Who gets a viral moment?
More than 50 million Americans watched the June debate between President Biden and Mr. Trump live, and Tuesday’s bout is expected to draw an even bigger audience. Tens of millions more will consume the event in news coverage and in social media feeds after the fact.
Those viewers are not likely to see the entire 90 minutes, but will be served key snippets — the best of which come to be known as debate moments. These are easy to remember from debates past. Ronald Reagan saying to Walter Mondale in 1984: “I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent’s youth and inexperience.” Or four years ago, when Mr. Biden tried turning back Mr. Trump’s repeated interruptions with a pointed “Will you shut up, man?”
Of course, some key moments prove unhelpful to candidates. President George H.W. Bush was criticized for looking bored when he checked his watch during a debate with Bill Clinton in 1992. Al Gore’s audible sighs during a 2000 debate with George W. Bush drew mockery. And Mitt Romney’s attempt in 2012 to explain the relative paucity of women he had hired as Massachusetts governor by saying he had received “binders full of women” to consider set Twitter abuzz and prompted attacks from President Barack Obama’s campaign.
Will Trump tie Harris to Biden?
The Trump team has one overriding objective for the debate. They want, above all else, for the viewing audience to finish the night with the impression that Ms. Harris is responsible for every unpopular aspect of Mr. Biden’s record.
Trump’s advisers want her to be linked in voters’ minds with the high prices they’re paying at the grocery store, with the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and with the undocumented migrants crossing the border.
Mr. Trump has repeatedly blamed the Biden administration, and Ms. Harris, for the influx of migrants and has often made false or exaggerated claims. Watch for Ms. Harris to blame Mr. Trump for pressuring Republicans to kill legislation that was intended to improve the immigration system and strengthen border security.
Will Harris distance herself from Biden?
Ms. Harris has the delicate task of staying loyal to Mr. Biden but also subtly distancing herself from him. Undecided voters in the battleground states are disproportionately sour about the economy and pessimistic about the state of the country and are hungry for change. Advisers to both candidates understand the imperative of being the person voters associate with change.
How will Harris target Trump on Roe v. Wade?
Ms. Harris will most likely go on offense on abortion — the policy area that Mr. Trump views as his greatest political vulnerability.
The vice president has for weeks been reminding voters that it was Mr. Trump who transformed the Supreme Court that overturned Roe v. Wade. She released an ad over the weekend showing footage of Mr. Trump saying that for “years, they were trying to get Roe v. Wade terminated and I did it, and I’m proud to have done it.”
She may also bring up the fact that Mr. Trump once even suggested that women who got abortions should be punished, a position he soon disavowed.
Mr. Trump will try to sow doubts about the issue, saying he wants to leave abortion policy to the states. And he will most likely play up his support for in vitro fertilization treatments, a position in which he broke with some abortion opponents.
How will they speak about the economy?
Mr. Trump has prepared to hammer Ms. Harris over the high prices lingering from the high inflation of the early Biden administration — and to call voters’ memories back to when life was more affordable before the Covid pandemic. He is expected to bring up the more liberal policy positions that Ms. Harris espoused in 2019, during her first campaign for president, but has since renounced, including her call back then to ban fracking, which is seen as a deadly issue in Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state.
Ms. Harris will most likely try to deflect these attacks by reminding voters of the mess the country was in when Mr. Trump handed over power to her and Mr. Biden — with an economy still in a state of partial shutdown because of the pandemic and with many more millions of Americans collecting unemployment checks. Based on her recent public comments, she will then turn to acknowledging that prices are still too high and explaining her proposals for addressing the cost of living.
What roles will race and gender play?
As he seeks to return to the White House, Mr. Trump is the latest in a long line of white men running for president of the United States. Ms. Harris vying to be the first woman and second person of color to hold the office.
But unlike Mrs. Clinton in 2016, Ms. Harris has steered away from an explicit embrace of the historic nature of her candidacy — particularly when Mr. Trump accused her, falsely, of misrepresenting her racial identity.
However she handles Mr. Trump’s attacks will inevitably be viewed through the prism of a Black and South Asian woman debating a white man, and voters’ perceptions of those exchanges could go a long way in framing how Americans perceive the debate.
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