State elections in Germany have much more than regional meaning — they are seen as a gauge of the federal government’s performance. That’s why although only — with their 5 million eligible voters a fraction of the 61 million nationwide — the results are significant.
This is the first time in a state parliament election that the far-right party received more than a third of the vote. Plus, the parties which make up the Berlin-based federal government have never received such bad results in regional elections.
In as well as , the far-right AfD received more than double as many votes as the three parties which make up the federal coalition government — the center-left , environmentalist and neoliberal — combined. These parties’ results are each in the single digits. The Greens in Thuringia and the FDP in both states fail to meet the 5% threshold to enter the state parliaments at all.
Punishing the government in Berlin?
According to pre-election opinion polls, the SPD was also threatened with being thrown out of the state parliaments, but in the end was spared this debacle.
Four out of five German voters say they are unsatisfied with the work of the federal government, and that has long been the case. The monthly survey conducted by pollsters infratest dimap, regularly shows poor results for Chancellor and his ministers.
The coalition is seen as quarrelling and incapable of action. It also did not help that the government quickly and unanimously reacted to the shortly before the state elections. Stricter migration and security policies were announced, and 28 asylum seekers who had committed criminal offenses were surprisingly .
The AfD sees itself as having confirmed a broad support base. The state elections brought “historic” success for their party, AfD co-leader said, calling for the federal government to stand down. “It is also a punishment for the federal government, it is a requiem for this coalition,” Weidel said, adding: “The government in Berlin should ask itself if it can even continue to govern. This question of fresh elections should be posed at least following the [upcoming] election in Brandenburg, because things cannot carry on like this.”
All eyes turn to Brandenburg
Elections are scheduled in the eastern German state of on September 22. There, too, the AfD is leading in the polls, but closely followed by the Social Democrats. The SPD will be doing all they can to remain calm leading up to election day, because the vote will be crucial for them.
The party has led the government in Brandenburg since 1990. “I expect that everyone will make even more of an effort than ever before,” urged SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil on Sunday evening in Berlin. The party needed to work together to win back votes. “Everyone now needs to play their part so that things improve.”
Despite the dismal results in Thuringia and Saxony, Chancellor Scholz can continue to count on the support of his party, said Klingbeil, rejecting discussions of personnel in the SPD. The SPD leadership has emphasized that Scholz will lead the party into the next federal election.
This sense of unity could quickly crumble should Brandenburg’s state premier of 11 years, Dietmar Woidke, fail to be reelected. In this case, rumors in the SPD may grow louder that Defense Minister , who is much , could become the chancellor candidate for the federal elections in September 2025.
Challenges for the coalition
Will the coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP last until then? The dismal results in the state elections and miserable polling at the federal level do not only affect their mood.
Within the individual parties, the calls for more visibility and a stronger profile 69022978are growing louder. “For my party, it will now also be about more strongly emancipating ourselves and making it clearer what people will only get from the SPD and where we will no longer allow ourselves to be walked all over,” SPD secretary Kevin Kühnert said.
Potential conflict areas include the coming year’s budget, which must be decided on in the Bundestag. It also remains to be seen whether the government will manage to implement the tightening of migration policy it just announced. Some critical voices in the left wings of the SPD and Greens do not agree with the plaans to restrict immigration.
None of the three governing parties can afford to let the coalition fail. If early nationwide elections were to be held, current polling shows that they would no longer receive a majority. The winners would be their rivals the AfD and the conservative Union of the and their Bavarian counterparts the . The Union, which makes up the largest opposition bloc in the Bundestag, has long called for the government to step down.
“The traffic light parties [German political slang for the coalition, based on their party colors of red, yellow and green] have been punished,” CDU national general secretary Carsten Linnemann said on election evening. “A party of the chancellor which only has a single-figure result in two eastern states needs to ask itself whether it is still making policy for the people of Germany at all.”
The CDU/CSU will continue to increase the pressure on the federal government. They are not only calling for the announced changes to migration policy to be implemented quickly but are also pushing for laws to be tightened further.
Following the knife attack in Solingen, CDU chairman spoke of an “overload limit” which had been exceeded in the country. He called on the federal government to declare a “national state of emergency” to be able to turn asylum seekers away directly at the German border.
This article was originally written in German.
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