Attitudes on abortion are deeply entrenched and have motivated voters across the American political landscape for decades. But in a post-Roe world, with abortion access sharply limited or at stake in several states, voters who want to protect abortion rights are increasingly energized.
Although the economy remains the No. 1 issue for voters, a growing share of voters in swing states now say abortion is central to their decision this fall, according to New York Times/Siena College polls earlier this month. This represents an increase since May, when President Joe Biden was still the Democratic presidential nominee. And by a wide margin, more say they trust Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald J. Trump to handle abortion.
Mr. Trump has repeatedly changed his position on the issue, despite appointing Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 case that found a constitutional right to abortion.
On Thursday, he even suggested that he might support a Florida ballot measure that would expand abortion rights — which he and his campaign quickly tried to walk back. But his shifting stance may reflect hope among Democrats, and concern among Republicans, that backlash to abortion restrictions may drive voters to the polls.
That may be especially the case for women — particularly now that Kamala Harris is at the top of the Democratic ticket.
For women younger than 45, abortion has overtaken the economy as the single most important issue to their vote.
“I think any woman should be able to access an abortion if they need it,” said Audrey Herman, 19, who plans to vote for the first time this year. “It’s the No. 1 reason why I feel so strongly about getting Kamala into the White House.”
Ms. Herman, a student at Dickinson College in Carlisle, Pa., said this issue had motivated her ever since 2022, when the Supreme Court overturned Roe.
A large share of voters say they trust Ms. Harris more on the issue, which she championed while in office. Her 20 percentage point advantage over Mr. Trump on the issue is double the advantage Mr. Biden had when he was the party’s nominee.
Ms. Harris — the first nonwhite woman to run as a major-party presidential candidate — has also been able to build support on the abortion issue with some of the key Democratic-leaning constituencies with whom President Biden was weak: young voters, Black voters and Latino voters. Among Hispanic voters, Ms. Harris now holds a 30 percentage point advantage over Mr. Trump in who would better handle abortion issues; Mr. Biden had an advantage of only 12 percentage points.
“I wish Biden had done a little bit more,” Krystin Martinez, a teacher in Saginaw County, Mich. “But beggars can’t be choosers, and I was happy he was pro-choice.”
Ms. Martinez, 34, said abortion was the main issue driving her vote for Ms. Harris.
Still, it is unclear just how much abortion will move votes. For many voters who want to keep some access to abortion, their attitudes on the topic do not outweigh other concerns: More than a quarter of swing state voters say inflation or the economy is the most important issue to their vote, while 14 percent list abortion.
Abortion is now roughly tied with immigration as swing state voters’ most important issue, with a larger share of Democrats citing abortion as central to their vote and a larger share of Republicans citing immigration.
“I am for some level of abortions, especially as far as medically and saving lives — I think we need that,” Charles Taylor, 43, of Jackson County, Wis., said. “But I’m not for it 100 percent of the time.”
Mr. Taylor plans to vote for Mr. Trump, though, because abortion does not sit high on his list of priorities.
Overall, attitudes about abortion have been fairly stable since the 1990s. The share of Americans who said they wanted abortion to be legal in all or most cases is nearly identical now (63 percent) to the share who said the same in 1995 (60 percent), according to Pew Research Center surveys.
The big difference may be enthusiasm over the issue. Historically abortion rights have been a significant motivator on the right. In the 1980s and 1990s, the Republican Party made abortion restrictions front and center in its platform, in part because more members of the religious right had joined their ranks.
And those voters have stuck with Republicans.
In the swing state polls, taken before Mr. Trump’s latest comments, some 37 percent of swing state voters said they trusted him more on abortion. The group was mostly made up of Republicans and Republican-leaners, but 23 percent of independent voters who do not lean toward either party also said they trusted Mr. Trump more than Ms. Harris on the issue.
At the same time, only 3 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say abortion is the most important issue to their vote, far behind immigration (25 percent) and the economy and inflation (43 percent).
Vote preference and abortion attitudes don’t always go hand in hand. In fact, last year, many voters who said they wanted abortion to be “mostly legal” said that they intended to vote for Mr. Trump.
This year, abortion related referendums may play a key part in getting voters to the polls. Constitutional amendments seeking to guarantee abortion rights are on the ballot in 10 states this fall, including in critical swing states like Arizona and Nevada. In the last several years, special elections centered on abortion have driven strong turnout and enthusiasm.
But this fall, the referendums could have a more challenging path. That’s because the political makeup of voters who show up in low-turn out midterms and special elections is often quite different than in high-turnout general elections. In 2022 and 2023, those voters were far more likely to lean Democratic than the electorate is likely to be this fall.
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